So my philosophy for betting World Series Futures still holds true at this stage of the game. You have to throw out your far outliers that missed but in large, you have to stick to the same principles that got us here.
When I do weigh in on future world series winners, I try to do so in a semi-standardized way. The very first thing I weigh is a pitching staffs viability. Do they have a stable of guys who can maintain production through the course of 162 games. That begins with the starting 5. I need to see strength through 4 guys, and stability in the 5th for any team to look like a real contender.
On top of that, I really want to see a guy with tremendous “Stuff” at the top of the rotation. A guy with high pitch-ability is fantastic, and a must have. A guy with stuff and high pitch-ability can win even when his pitches aren’t hitting spots. A 98 mile per hour fastball on the hands is almost impossible to hit. Whether the fastball is followed by the perfect tilt, off speed pitch down, or not. Guys like that will win you games consistently in the playoffs.
Seeing a strong back end of a rotation is another must. A lights out setup guy and closer shorten games. When teams get into the playoffs, having to win 7 innings opposed to 9 is a huge value. I think that’s easy enough to see.
If a team has those two things, plus a good long relief guy I think they have play-0ff viability.
Don’t Bet On Teams That Strike Out
Offensively the biggest non starter for me is a team that strikes out a ton. As they are playing now, the Huston Astros will never win a world series. Give me a team like the Royals any day: high contact rates, high on base %, high wins rate. A strike out is as killer to an offense as a walk is to a defense. There is literally nothing a TEAM can do to defend a walk. It is very much the same for a “K”. Striking out does nothing for runners on base, nothing to the defense, nothing for the hitter on deck; crippling.
That is the primary thing I look for in an offense. If a team can score runs, they can win as long as they don’t strike out a ton. Someone may point to teams who have had success hitting the long ball and striking out a ton. I would point to the Mets and say “have fun stringing together multiple solo shots against that staff in a 7 game set”.
Another overlooked factor is defense. But for this you need to look at the makeup of a team. Instead of taking the one factor “defense”, look at a teams fundamentals. How do they approach 2 strikes, runners in scoring position, base running, and decision making defensively. If they do those things well it would point towards a winner for me.
So compounding all these factors, we may be able to get a clearer look at potential winners.
Look For Opportunities To Hedge In The Playoffs
Another factor that influences my betting in this area is hedging. I will take long-odds teams based on their ability to get into the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, you can hedge your bets by betting against them in each series, and come away with a very profitable situation.
|Toronto Blue Jays||+850|
|San Francisco Giants||+1000|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+1000|
|Boston Red Sox||+1000|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+3300|
|New York Mets||+5000|
|Kansas City Royals||+5000|
|New York Yankees||+10000|
HAMMER the Royals at +5000. Do you see what their pitching staff is doing right now? Let me illustrate:
14-16 since finding the mantis
2.03 team era in that time period
5.33 runs per game
2.53 are going lower starter era
0.85 microscopic bullpen era
This run can continue and if it does expect the Royals to make the playoffs. At 5000 this is a great bet.
Red Sox +1000
Rick Porcello has been a welcome surprise this season for the Red Sox. David Price has been stringing a few starts together that make him look like the ace we know. Drew Pomeranz 2.95 era 10-9 now pitching or a winning team. That’s a stellar top three for one of the most potent offenses in the league. I like this bet a lot.
Detroit + 4000
I realize that saying I like Detroit in one sentence while saying hammer kc in the other is a bit at odds. One will make it, one will not. I said at the beginning of the season that I liked Detroit and at 4000 right now…still do. Pick your poison between KC and DET…one of these guys will put you in a position for a payout…not both.
If you have money to invest, I think Texas is the safest bet that will still give you a decent return. My favorite favorite if you will. The Cubs are good, Cleveland appears good, but the Rangers are tied for the second best record in baseball and rolling. Solid pitching, solid defense, and a well built offense. If I have a good chunk of money I want to spend in one place…its here.
I have no problems riding those three arms with a stable of crafty veterans rounding out the back end of their rotation.
Check out my blog at burgerandbeerz.com
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