There are a few simple concepts I follow very closely when I choose which games I am going to wager on. This applies to almost all sports but is most effective in NBA, NHL, NFL, NCAABB, and NCAAF.
The three things I pay the most attention to are Bounce Backs, Let Downs, and Revenge situations.
This situation occurs when a team has a below average performance the previous game and is looking to rebound after a poor showing. In NBA, it could be a team that scored only 78 points (20 below its average) and shot a dismal 34% field goal percentage. In these situations I look for a team to refocus and put forth a better effort in their next contest.
This is when a team is riding high from a big upset they just pulled off. This can be emotionally draining for a team and also could cause some lack of focus in preparation for their next contest. The team could be celebrating too much and just isn’t as focused going into their next game.
This is pretty self explanatory but is a big factor when teams meet multiple times throughout the course of a season. The team that lost has more motivation to do well the next time the two teams meet. They actually have an advantage over the other team because they can adjust to the things that didn’t work and also incorporate new strategies to try and get the win the second time around.
What people don’t realize is that a good coach is what drives these adjustments. I never used to look at coaching but now it is hard to ignore who some of these coaches are. Gregg Popovich and Bill Belichick are two of the best in all of sports.
There are other things to consider then just these 3 concepts but these are the roots of what I use when I do my research on a game.
Snap Bet Games When All 3 Concepts Are At Play
There are even situations when you have all 3 concepts align in a single game and if the line is right you can almost be certain that this will be an auto-bet for me. And if you look closely at each one of these, they are all based around fading the public. The public will just notice Team A beat Team B last week by 23 points and betting Team A will almost be an auto-bet for them, but for me it is the exact opposite.
You can break it down to Offense and Defense or even down to the individual player level. LeBron James is one of the best bounce back players in NBA playoff history. Whether you like him or not you cannot deny that after a loss he will have a solid bounce back performance. And he will definitely motivate his teammates in the same way.