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Betting the 2016 Cy Young Winner

 

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Bills are piling up, the wife is on your back about some new project around the house, or you just want to make some cash; this year’s CY odds are prime to be taken advantage of.

If you want to avoid my philosophy on MLB awards betting skip to the bottom. If you want to understand what comprises a value pick…read on.

My System

I always view betting on baseball awards as long term investments. Obviously, there is the long wait. If you get in on the action at the beginning of the year, you have a 162 games to wait for your payout. Your day to day gambling in relation to your awards betting is where the true commonality comes into play. You should approach your bet as a balancing act with your short term betting. If you are a game to game gambler, you know that a lot of factors come into play.

R vs L, L vs R, R vs R, L vs L, day vs night, dome vs open air, turf vs grass,  pitchability and stuff vs approach, previous match-ups, streaks, and trends. By the end of it all, you realize one truth. Despite your due diligence, averages are averages. As a gambler it can’t be predicted how they will work themselves out on paper.

I don’t believe that any game betting can be considered “safe” for that reason. If you are a believer of statistical representation however, you can put in the work and come away with a statistically sound bet. Let’s say that you like to take the statistically safe over and unders on any given game. Doing this allows you to place a bet at the beginning of the year that can really payout by hitting the value picks.

Awards betting and gambling on day to day results are weighed by different factors. If I’m betting the Giants to beat an over today against the Padres I have a bunch of hard numbers to look into. If I am betting today on a CY award winner, it’s more of a feel thing. I am looking into defenses, divisional strength, the size of ballparks, and the way a guys stuff has looked in Spring…sure. At the end of the day however, the bets shrouded in uncertainty.  I am going to try and filter through some of that and give you my best “Value Picks” for this year’s AL and NL CY.

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American League

From oddsshark.com

  • Chris Sale +250
  • David Price +300
  • Corey Kluber +350
  • Dallas Keuchel +600
  • Felix Hernandez +600
  • Carlos Carrasco +800
  • Chris Archer +1200
  • Sonny Gray +1600
  • Cole Hamels +2000
  • Garrett Richards +2000
  • Danny Salazar +2500
  • Marcus Stroman +3300
  • Justin Verlander +3300
  • Masahiro Tanaka +5000
  • Yordano Ventura +5000
  • Taijuan Walker +5000
  • Carlos Rodon +5000
  • Michael Pineda +5000
  • Jordan Zimmermann +5000
  • Collin McHugh +6600
  • Jose Quintana +8000
  • Jake Odorizzi +8000
  • Ian Kennedy +10000
  • Luis Severino +10000
  • Rick Porcello +20000

I hate picks 1-6.

Sale- Sale is the truth. He is the perfect combination of stuff, pitchability, and competitiveness. His problem from a betting standpoint is similar to Kershaw. The value just isn’t there for me. 100 bucks to win 250 when you have some names in this list who have near as good of a chance to take the award home with much larger payouts.

Price- Boston is an uncertainty right now. Their defense is spotty, and their offense is a complete question mark in a division with a TON of hitting. Price has an uphill battle, and at his current valuation…no go.

Kluber- Hate his team’s chances in the same division as the Royals and Whitesox. If the Whitesox win that division and the race is between Kluber and Sale…Sale wins. Kluber at +350 is awful for that reason alone.

Keuchel- Houston scores so inconsistently, while striking out a bunch. When Matt Cain first came up the Giants were a similar type of team. While their talent wasn’t that of Houston’s now, the way they scored runs was. I see Keuchel playing for a bottom dweller team standings wise this season, with a low wins record. Stay away at +600…Bite at +1000.

King Felix- I guess I should modify the “Hate” thing a little here. I don’t hate this bet. I just don’t love it. The reason I am staying away comes from a bet I do love over in Oakland.

Carrasco- See Kluber

Value Bets

Sonny Gray- The A’s are poised this year to pull off one of their runs nobody sees coming. Gray will lead that charge from a pitching standpoint. At +1600 you have got to be joking. If the A’s win that division Sonny Gray has a stellar year. A stellar year puts him in a strong place for the award. Couple in his stuff, all the room in The Coliseum, and my dislike for many of the awards front runners…BET

Jordan Zimmerman- He has the previously stated “Kluber” reasons going against him. But at +5000 you have to take a look. He strikes people out, he keeps runners out of scoring position, and I don’t know if Detroit is as bad as the look right now.

Garret Richards- I am a sucker year in year out for the Angels. So far they are making me out to be a sucker again. But that team has TALENT. If the A’s don’t do it, they might. Garret Richards has strikeout stuff and figures to contribute mightily to a playoff push. So at +2000 I am taking a risk.

National League

  • Clayton Kershaw +175
  • Jake Arrieta +700
  • Madison Bumgarner +1000
  • Max Scherzer +1000
  • Matt Harvey +1000
  • Jose Fernandez +1200
  • Jacob deGrom +1400
  • Stephen Strasburg +1400
  • Zack Greinke +2000
  • Johhny Cueto +2000
  • Gerrit Cole +2000
  • Noah Syndergaard +2000
  • Adam Wainwright +2000
  • Jon Lester +2500
  • Carlos Martinez +3300
  • Tyson Ross +5000
  • Francisco Liriano +5000
  • James Shields +5000
  • Michael Wacha +5000
  • Jeff Samardzija +5000
  • Steven Matz +6600
  • Shelby Miller +8000
  • John Lackey +10000
  • Gio Gonzalez +10000
  • Scott Kazmir +10000

Don’t Do It

Clayton Kershaw- Unless you have 5 grand to throw at him the worth just isn’t there.

Johnny Cueto- High hits per 9 in a park with a ton of real estate. Hate him on the Giants, hate him as a pick. Bum or Cain win the award if they win the division.

Matt Harvey- Mat Harvey could certainly win this award. So could DeGrom, or Syndegaard. From a value standpoint, if I’m choosing a Mets ace, I’m choosing Syndegaard. The Mets may be there at the end of the year based on their pitching. Each guy is just as likely as the next to win it. Take the value or don’t take any of it.

Value Bets

Max Scherzer- Former Cy, stud Ace, great team. At +1000 you can’t not take this bet. The Nationals are going to win that division. The Mets may leak into the playoffs behind their arms…or they may not. The Nationals will 100% be in the discussion at the end of the year. Max Scherzer will have the minimum statistical accomplishments to be in the CY discussion. Bet.

Arrietta/Cole/Wainwright- These three guys, on these three teams, are monsters. It’s funny that the guy with the second lowest odds can be considered value…but that’s what Clayton Kershaw does to the league. All three of these guys will have a ton of wins, a ton of K’s, and a great ERA. At +700, +2000, +2000, all three can be considered good value selections.

The values on these picks allow for a pretty good pay day at the end of the year. If you have the green , play my picks for the best bang for the buck.

Alex Alvira

Alex Alvira

I am a recent college grad who is currently toiling in a post college stupor. Central to who I am as a person and writer is a highly competitive nature. As an ex collegiate athlete of the "has been/never was" variety, I feel that I can bring a perspective in my writing that is relatable. I enjoy cheap beer (PBR), hot dogs, and the 4th of July more than any adult reasonably should.

Check out my blog at burgerandbeerz.com
Alex Alvira

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