MLB is one of the more unique sports to bet on. As a general rule, fading the public is always the way to approach sports gambling and there is no difference when it comes to baseball.
The big difference with baseball from other sports is that you are generally wagering on moneylines.
They do offer a spread (Run Line/RL), which is always -1.5, but the odds on the RL fluctuate depending on how heavy the favorite is.
For example, a -200 moneyline equates to about a -1.5 (-110) Run Line. Just like most sports the public gets caught up with the favorite, thinking that the favorite will usually win and they don’t take into consideration by how much. Well in MLB it is even less noticeable because when betting a moneyline, all the team has to do is win. What they don’t realize is how much juice they are actually risking.
NFL vs MLB
If you take a look back at the 2008 NFL season you will notice the Detroit lions went 0-16 and were the worst team in football. They lost 100% of their games played. Also in the 2007 NFL season the New England Patriots went 16-0 and were the best team in the NFL winning 100% of their games.
Now we’ll go to the 2012 MLB season where the worst team, by far, was the Houston Astros. That year the Astros went 55-107 winning 35% of their games. In the same season you have the best team, the Washington Nationals, who went 98-64 winning 60.5% of their games.
When you compare the two sports you notice that the worst team in MLB wins a significantly higher percentage of games and the best team in baseball wins a significantly lower percentage of their games.
Now this is an extreme example but it just goes to show you that the worst team in baseball over the course of the season still wins a good number of games compared to other sports.
How To Bet MLB
This all simply tells us that the value in betting baseball is picking the underdogs in good spots.
It doesn’t mean stay away from the favorites, but I generally use the rule about not wagering on a team favored anything more than a -150. There are some cases where I still like a team favored more than a -150 and in those cases is where I will place a wager on the RL.
Baseball is a long season of 162 games, and just like sports betting it’s a marathon and not a sprint. Taking into consideration pitching vs hitting matchups is crucial. Some players just match up well versus others.
Also in a sport where failing 70% of the time means you are doing good, then it is very profitable to continue wagering on those hot teams and fading the teams who are slumping.