week7picksftd

Week 7 NFL Picks

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12-6 record so far this season after a 2-1 week. I like a quite a few games this week, and here are my favorite plays for NFL week 7.

Vikings @ Eagles

Eagles +2.5
Minnesota off of a bye, which makes them an even heavier public favorite than they should be. Eagles still a great team at home (dismantling the Steelers) and a decent but struggling team away, with close losses to Detroit and division rival Redskins. Scary game to bet, as Minnesota’s defense is tops in the league and has had 2 weeks to prepare for rookie Wentz, but I’m going against the grain in this spot.

Raiders @ Jaguars

Jaguars +1
Raiders traveling across the country to play a struggling Jaguars team. Only problem is the Raiders are 3-0 away this year, and all the games were on the east coast: Saints, Titans, and Ravens. Two of these games however, were 1 point victories. Jags win a close one at the end in what could be a shootout.

Bucs @ 49ers

49ers +2
San Fran looks about as bad as it gets right now, but that was to be expected with Kap playing at Buffalo in his first game back. Bucs off a bye and have been a small public favorite this year, after beating Atlanta and Carolina. I’m going to fade the trap and bet that Kap has a much better game two, home vs a much worse defense. I also expect Hyde to have a pretty big game as the 49ers look to pound the ground all day. Buyer beware: San Fran has been the team that has burned me this season twice.

Chargers @ Falcons

Chargers +7
The only away team I like this week in this fantasy footballer’s wet dream of a matchup. I think the line is perfect, but can’t help but bet the Chargers who have 3 of their losses by 1, 3, and 4 points as well as their 4th loss by 6 in OT. This trend continues from last year and is part of their basic makeup as a team that is in almost every game at the end, due to their subpar defense and great QB. I look for this game to go the same way.

Extra Sweat:
Dolphins +3: Home dog getting 3 points in a division rivalry is usually a bet, but the Bills have McCoy and Miami is poor against the run. I might put a unit or less on the Fins though as I believe the situation dictates it.

week6picksftd1

Week 6 NFL Picks

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10-5 record on the season. Went 1-2 last week, but won my big bet with the Lions covering +3 at home vs the Eagles, so I can’t complain too much. Here are my picks for week 6.

Eagles @ Redskins

Redskins +3
I would bet contrary to this in a lot of spots, as the Eagles lost and Redskins won last week. However the public is 76% on Eagles thus far, moving the line to from 2 to 3. I also like the Skins here because they are playing home vs a division rival, which usually means a cover for a small home dog.

Falcons @ Seahawks

Seahawks -5.5
I don’t often bet on the team that is off of a bye as I believe it hurts a lot of teams more than it helps, and it’s a somewhat of a bettor’s trap. I do believe however that bye weeks help really good teams, teams like the Seahawks. They needed a rest to get healthier and are coming off of a few big games. Seattle stays hot and brings Atlanta back down to earth in a big way.

Broncos @ Chargers

Chargers +3
Thursday night football and the San Diego Chargers; two things I hate betting on. But like my first bet, I love betting small home dogs in division rivalries. Especially when the public is all over the better/away team. I am definitely wary of this bet, as its against the best defense in the league. I will likely bet 1 unit or less here.

01

Week 4 NFL Picks

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8-0 on the season thus far. 4-0 last week and came oh-so-close to a DFS victory in the $100k. Here are my picks for week 4.

Broncos @ Bucs

Bucs +3
This line would seem to make more sense at Broncos -6, not 3. The public is all over Denver 92% early in the week. I believe Winston plays well vs this tough defense, Siemian has a tough one, and Bucs win it at the end.

Colts @ Jags

Jags +2.5
I feel like this line has been Jags +2 every year since the Peyton Manning days in Indy. And somehow the Colts always win by 1. Vegas knows what they’re doing as usual, Jags cover at home, and the public falls flat.

Rams @ Cardinals

Cardinals -9
I like the Cardinals to bounce back after a tough away loss and embarrass the Rams in Arizona. The low total and large spread signifies a strong defensive performance by Arizona in a convincing win. Let’s call it 27-10.

Cowboys @ 49ers

49ers +3
Dallas playing well and 49ers look like the pits. I have a feeling we see the 49ers from week 1 vs the Rams this week though, and their defense hands it to Dallas and Prescott.

Honorable Mentions
Baltimore -3.5
Bears +3

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Week 3 NFL Picks

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4-0 on the season thus far. 2-0 last week with Vikings and Rams. Here are my picks for week 3.

Cardinals @ Bills

Bills +4
The public is over 80% on the high flying Cardinals, but they are flying cross-country to play a tough Bills defense. The Bills will play Arizona close; I see them winning this one outright a lot here as the gambly Ryan brothers could easily put together a scheme that gets to Palmer all game.

Steelers @ Eagles

Eagles +3.5
A short trip for Pitt, but a tough stadium to play in vs a confident Eagles team coming home after a big win in Chicago. This game should stay close until the very end, and Pitt wins by a point.

Chargers @ Colts

Colts -3
It’s rare that I follow the public, but this week the public is on the Colts 65% and so am I. The Colts don’t look great and San Diego looks like world beaters. Bettors have short memories though, and I think both teams snap back to their true value this game and Colts win convincingly.

Jets @ Chiefs

Chiefs -3
Are we forgetting how good Andy Reid and the Chiefs are so quickly? KC shows up huge in arrowhead and brings Fitzpatrick and the Jets back down to earth.

Honorable Mentions
Panthers/Vikings over 43
Packers -7
49ers/Seahawks under 40.5

ip-bitcointalk

Week 2 NFL Picks

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2-0 in week 1 betting the Jets and SF. Here are my picks for week 2 NFL 2016. Good luck!

Packers @ Vikings

Vikings +2.5
If this line is at 3 anywhere I would snap it up. Tough betting the +2.5 but this line should be way higher. Public over 80% on the super favorite GB Packers, but look for Minnesota to give GB hell as always and Rodgers to struggle.

Seahawks @ Rams

Rams +6.5
The Rams looked terrible week 1 but played a very tough away game in SF. Now the Seahawks who also struggled at home vs a bad Miami team will be away vs a very tough defense and a hobbled Russell Wilson. This game stays close.

kansas city royals world series

2016 World Series Futures

kansas city royals world series
So my philosophy for betting World Series Futures still holds true at this stage of the game. You have to throw out your far outliers that missed but in large, you have to stick to the same principles that got us here.

Pitching Staff

When I do weigh in on future world series winners, I try to do so in a semi-standardized way. The very first thing I weigh is a pitching staffs viability. Do they have a stable of guys who can maintain production through the course of 162 games. That begins with the starting 5. I need to see strength through 4 guys, and stability in the 5th for any team to look like a real contender.

On top of that, I really want to see a guy with tremendous “Stuff” at the top of the rotation. A guy with high pitch-ability is fantastic, and a must have. A guy with stuff and high pitch-ability can win even when his pitches aren’t hitting spots. A 98 mile per hour fastball on the hands is almost impossible to hit. Whether the fastball is followed by the perfect tilt, off speed pitch down, or not. Guys like that will win you games consistently in the playoffs.

Seeing a strong back end of a rotation is another must. A lights out setup guy and closer shorten games. When teams get into the playoffs, having to win 7 innings opposed to 9 is a huge value. I think that’s easy enough to see.

If a team has those two things, plus a good long relief guy I think they have play-0ff viability.

Don’t Bet On Teams That Strike Out

Offensively the biggest non starter for me is a team that strikes out a ton. As they are playing now, the Huston Astros will never win a world series. Give me a team like the Royals any day: high contact rates, high on base %, high wins rate. A strike out is as killer to an offense as a walk is to a defense. There is literally nothing a TEAM can do to defend a walk. It is very much the same for a “K”. Striking out does nothing for runners on base, nothing to the defense, nothing for the hitter on deck; crippling.

That is the primary thing I look for in an offense. If a team can score runs, they can win as long as they don’t strike out a ton. Someone may point to teams who have had success hitting the long ball and striking out a ton. I would point to the Mets and say “have fun stringing together multiple solo shots against that staff in a 7 game set”.

Team Defenses

Another overlooked factor is defense. But for this you need to look at the makeup of a team. Instead of taking the one factor “defense”, look at a teams fundamentals. How do they approach 2 strikes, runners in scoring position, base running, and decision making defensively. If they do those things well it would point  towards a winner for me.

So compounding all these factors, we may be able to get a clearer look at potential winners.

Look For Opportunities To Hedge In The Playoffs

Another factor that influences my betting in this area is hedging. I will take long-odds teams based on their ability to get into the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, you can hedge your bets by betting against them in each series, and come away with a very profitable situation.

 

Team Odds
Chicago Cubs +290
Washington Nationals +575
Texas Rangers +700
Toronto Blue Jays +850
Cleveland Indians +900
San Francisco Giants +1000
Los Angeles Dodgers +1000
Boston Red Sox +1000
Baltimore Orioles +1600
St. Louis Cardinals +3300
Detroit Tigers +4000
Seattle Mariners +4000
Miami Marlins +4000
Houston Astros +5000
Pittsburgh Pirates +5000
New York Mets +5000
Kansas City Royals +5000
New York Yankees +10000
Colorado Rockies +20000

 

ROYALS +5000

 

HAMMER the Royals at +5000. Do you see what their pitching staff is doing right now? Let me illustrate:

14-16 since finding the mantis

2.03 team era in that time period

5.33 runs per game

2.53 are going lower starter era

0.85 microscopic bullpen era

This run can continue and if it does expect the Royals to make the playoffs. At 5000 this is a great bet.

 

Red Sox +1000

 

Rick Porcello has been a welcome surprise this season for the Red Sox. David Price has been stringing a few starts together that make him look like the ace we know. Drew Pomeranz 2.95 era 10-9 now pitching or a winning team. That’s a stellar top three for one of the most potent offenses in the league. I like this bet a lot.

 

Detroit + 4000

 

I realize that saying I like Detroit in one sentence while saying hammer kc in the other is a bit at odds. One will make it, one will not. I said at the beginning of the season that I liked Detroit and at 4000 right now…still do. Pick your poison between KC and DET…one of these guys will put you in a position for a payout…not both.

 

TEXAS +700

 

If you have money to invest, I think Texas is the safest bet that will still give you a decent return. My favorite favorite if you will. The Cubs are good, Cleveland appears good, but the Rangers are tied for the second best record in baseball and rolling. Solid pitching, solid defense, and a well built offense. If I have a good chunk of money I want to spend in one place…its here.

 

Yu Darvish 10 10 6 4 3 0 0 59.0 49 18 9 14 76 11.59 91.2 2.1 1.07 2.75
Cole Hamels 25 25 18 13 4 0 0 160.2 144 50 19 61 159 8.91 103.2 5.3 1.28 2.80

 

Colby Lewis 15 15 12 6 1 0 0 98.0 81 35 13 19 61 5.60 94.6 3.3 1.02 3.21

I have no problems riding those three arms with a stable of crafty veterans rounding out the back end of their rotation.

ja-happ-and-making-adjustments-1461865888

Updated CY Futures – 2016 MLB

ja-happ-and-making-adjustments-1461865888

We’re now more than half way through the Major League Baseball season, and we have large bodies of work to evaluate and wager our money on now, so let’s get busy.

American League

Chris Sale +180
Cole Hamels +250
Aaron Sanchez +700
Danny Salazar +1200
Chris Tillman +1200
Justin Verlander +1400
J.A. Happ +1400
Rick Porcello +1600
Steven Wright +2000
Corey Kluber +2000
Michael Fulmer +2800

The American league has been a disaster. Many of the front runners fell off, and teams have flopped. Sprinkle some injuries in to complete the picture of chaos. Other than saying Chris Sale is the truth, I pretty much missed on the American league CY earlier this year. For me however, it will always be about value, and when you are betting for value you are going to miss sometimes.

That being said, let’s take a look at the betting with a little under halfway to go. At this stage of the game it is no longer about finding that golden nugget with astronomical odds. The body of work is too large for any one pitcher to have a complete turnaround from a 100-1 guy to CY. While I am still looking for value, we can’t just dismiss reality and someone’s actual chance at winning the award.

Cole Hamels +250

I’m not really saying that you should bet Hamels at +250. I am more acknowledging the fact that if you got it in at +2000 you are a betting god. I never would have placed Hamels at the top of this list. I think that is due in large part to the blindness I have for the AL West.

With Oakland every 4 years putting together contenders out of nowhere, the Angels always have star stacked squads and under performing, and Houston’s resurgence I have no clue how to read that division. So if you got it in at the beginning of the year… you killed it.

J.A. Happ +1400

J.A. Happ pitches for a team tied for the top spot in the toughest division in baseball. He has lead the team all year, and pitched at a clip worthy of the award. I think that if we see the Blue Jays take the American League East, and Happ finish with a sub 3 era and in the 19-21 win range he wins this award. At 14 to 1 thats not a bad investment.

Zach Britton ???

His odds will be unbelieveable. Remember how I said there were no more golden nuggets? I lied.

For starters, the 28-year-old lefty hasn’t blown a single save opportunity this season, going 34-for-34. If you count the All-Star Game, it’s 35-for-35. His ERA is lower than the limbo bar at a Lilliputian bar mitzvah (0.58). His WHIP is more like a blip (0.75).” (Matz).

He is a reliever so he has a huge battle to fight. If you see him get close to 45 saves however…ding ding WINNER. Eric Gagne 2.0. I have no idea if you can get this bet in anywhere because Bovada does not have him on there list.

National League

Stephen Strasburg -150
Madison Bumgarner +550
Clayton Kershaw +750
Jake Arrieta +1000
Johnny Cueto +1000
Max Scherzer +1000
Jose Fernandez +1600
Noah Syndergaard +2000

Strasburg at negative odds means great value elsewhere in this pool. I realize that Strasburg is a huge favorite but betting negative odds will never play in my book. You never know when a string of bad starts will happen.

Madison Bumgarner +550

If Strasburg doesn’t win this award Madison most likely will. So at 5.5 to 1 I will risk a few bucks on Mad Bum. The Giants are in a great position to win that division, and if they do…it will be on Mad Bum’s back.

Noah Syndegaard + 2000

He’s got the strikeouts, he’s got the era, he just doesn’t have the wins. If Noah turns in on in the second half and the Mets make the playoffs, couples with a Strasburg collapse…this may actually happen. At this late in the game, with odds like this, you have to take a chance.

new-york-mets

Betting MLB Futures – 2016 Championship Odds & Picks

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As the long journey toward the world series just begins, all teams in Major League Baseball turn their eyes forward with hopeful eyes at the crown. Will the Giants continue their even-year streak, and win a 4th? Will the pitching heavy Mets battle their way to the playoffs, then let their arms handcuff opposing hitters? Or will the long downtrodden Cubs finally make the push, and cement their place in history?

Like the Cy Young picks, it is tough to predict winners so early in a season. Talent is almost never the soul determinant of a winner. The Angels would have a handful of hardware if that were the case.  This type of predicting is again, at best shots in mild darkness.

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Pitching Staff

When I do weigh in on future world series winners, I try to do so in a semi-standardized way. The very first thing I weigh is a pitching staffs viability. Do they have a stable of guys who can maintain production through the course of 162 games. That begins with the starting 5. I need to see strength through 4 guys, and stability in the 5th for any team to look like a real contender.

On top of that, I really want to see a guy with tremendous “Stuff” at the top of the rotation. A guy with high pitch-ability is fantastic, and a must have. A guy with stuff and high pitch-ability can win even when his pitches aren’t hitting spots. A 98 mile per hour fastball on the hands is almost impossible to hit. Whether the fastball is followed by the perfect tilt, off speed pitch down, or not. Guys like that will win you games consistently in the playoffs.

Seeing a strong back end of a rotation is another must. A lights out setup guy and closer shorten games. When teams get into the playoffs, having to win 7 innings opposed to 9 is a huge value. I think that’s easy enough to see.

If a team has those two things, plus a good long relief guy I think they have play-0ff viability.

Don’t Bet On Teams That Strike Out

Offensively the biggest non starter for me is a team that strikes out a ton. As they are playing now, the Huston Astros will never win a world series. Give me a team like the Royals any day: high contact rates, high on base %, high wins rate. A strike out is as killer to an offense as a walk is to a defense. There is literally nothing a TEAM can do to defend a walk. It is very much the same for a “K”. Striking out does nothing for runners on base, nothing to the defense, nothing for the hitter on deck; crippling.

That is the primary thing I look for in an offense. If a team can score runs, they can win as long as they don’t strike out a ton. Someone may point to teams who have had success hitting the long ball and striking out a ton. I would point to the Mets and say “have fun stringing together multiple solo shots against that staff in a 7 game set”.

Team Defenses

Another overlooked factor is defense. But for this you need to look at the makeup of a team. Instead of taking the one factor “defense”, look at a teams fundamentals. How do they approach 2 strikes, runners in scoring position, base running, and decision making defensively. If they do those things well it would point  towards a winner for me.

So compounding all these factors, we may be able to get a clearer look at potential winners.

Look For Opportunities To Hedge In The Playoffs

Another factor that influences my betting in this area is hedging. I will take long-odds teams based on their ability to get into the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, you can hedge your bets by betting against them in each series, and come away with a very profitable situation.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14516801/mlb-latest-2016-world-series-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook

2016 World Series Odds
TEAM OPEN APRIL 25
Chicago Cubs 10-1 7-2
New York Mets 10-1 8
Kansas City Royals 14-1 10
Washington Nationals 10-1 10
San Francisco Giants 20-1 12
Los Angeles Dodgers 8-1 12
Texas Rangers 12-1 14
Cleveland Indians 20-1 14
Toronto Blue Jays 10-1 16
Boston Red Sox 18-1 18
Chicago White Sox 40-1 18
Houston Astros 14-1 20
St. Louis Cardinals 12-1 20
Baltimore Orioles 40-1 20
Detroit Tigers 20-1 30
New York Yankees 16-1 30
Seattle Mariners 30-1 30
Pittsburgh Pirates 12-1 35
Arizona Diamondbacks 60-1 40
Tampa Bay Rays 40-1 40
Los Angeles Angels 20-1 50
Oakland Athletics 60-1 80
Minnesota Twins 40-1 100
Miami Marlins 60-1 100
Colorado Rockies 150-1 200
San Diego Padres 60-1 300
Philadelphia Phillies 300-1 300
Cincinnati Reds 60-1 500
Milwaukee Brewers 60-1 500
Atlanta Braves 100-1 1000

The Front Runners

METS 8-1

For the billionth time….METS METS METS. If this team makes the playoffs they are running through every team they face that isn’t named the Giants or Cardinals. That pitching staff can absolutely demolish lineups (See 2015 Cubs). They only chance teams have against that stable of thoroughbreds is contact, men on base, and smart decision making on the base paths.  8-1 isn’t exactly a value bet, but this team has a very good chance at making the playoffs. Once they make it, they will make a deep run undoubtedly.

ROYALS 10-1

The back end of this pen makes games 6 innings. Same story as the previous 2 years. They make great contact offensively (see 2015 world series). They were good, they are good, they will be good. 10 to 1 is getting a little better, so I don’t hate putting money on a very good team that is expected to do well here.

GIANTS 12-1

If they pitch they will win. MadBum hasn’t looked like himself early, I have a ton of questions about Cueto, and the back end is terribly inconsistent. One thing I do know is that fundamentally this team can play ball. The have very good situational hitting, they play stellar defense, and they have the ability to run. Match that up with Bruce Bochy and a team full of veterans who have done it before and spell it wit me S.U.C.C.E.S.S.

Value Picks

CARDINALS 20-1

The Cardinals at 20 to 1 is a steal. That team has pitching. Wainwright, Wacha, Leake, Martinez, and Garcia. Two guys who can go out and dominate teams with high pitchability and stuff, a third in Martinez with the same caliber of stuff (just a tad bit less pitchability), and solid back end guys. The staff is there for me. Offensively, they are very savy with a lot of talent. 20 to 1 on a team wit this much experience is a very smart bet.

OAKLAND 80-1

I LOVE OAKLAND…to make the playoffs. At 80 to 1, you get them to the playoffs and start hedging your bet and you find yourself in a very profitable situation. There is just something about this organization that puts teams out there every so often that win despite everything else. They have a good young staff with decent young talent in the field. I promise you I’m betting Oakland personally this year, so if they tank I tank as well. Should tell you something about my conviction.

ARIZONA 40-1

They have to beat the Giants and Dodgers…a very tall order. With Grienke, they have an ace capable of beating anyone. Miller and Corbin make a great 2-3 punch, that matches or beats any the Dodgers and Giants have. For me the staff is there, if the bullpen performs. Offensively they are lead by a top 5 hitter in the league. Paul Goldschmit is the truth. Behind him  they are young and inexperienced. At 40 to 1 it is close for me. I hate that they have to beat 2 solid teams to get out of the division. Especially when the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs are all very talented in the central. They can do it however, and at for 40 to 1 they payoff is large enough to outweigh the risk.

DETROIT 30-1

I have been saying since they end of last year that the Tigers are not as bad as they seem. Verlander, Sanchez, Zimmerman at the front end of a solid staff. Cabrera, Kinsler, Martinez, and Upton should scare any staff not from New York named the Mets. I’m not sold on these guys, but at 30-1 they intrigue me. If they keep winning you are going to regret not getting in early.

sonny-gray-mlb-oakland-athletics-minnesota-twins

Betting the 2016 Cy Young Winner

 

sonny-gray-mlb-oakland-athletics-minnesota-twins

Bills are piling up, the wife is on your back about some new project around the house, or you just want to make some cash; this year’s CY odds are prime to be taken advantage of.

If you want to avoid my philosophy on MLB awards betting skip to the bottom. If you want to understand what comprises a value pick…read on.

My System

I always view betting on baseball awards as long term investments. Obviously, there is the long wait. If you get in on the action at the beginning of the year, you have a 162 games to wait for your payout. Your day to day gambling in relation to your awards betting is where the true commonality comes into play. You should approach your bet as a balancing act with your short term betting. If you are a game to game gambler, you know that a lot of factors come into play.

R vs L, L vs R, R vs R, L vs L, day vs night, dome vs open air, turf vs grass,  pitchability and stuff vs approach, previous match-ups, streaks, and trends. By the end of it all, you realize one truth. Despite your due diligence, averages are averages. As a gambler it can’t be predicted how they will work themselves out on paper.

I don’t believe that any game betting can be considered “safe” for that reason. If you are a believer of statistical representation however, you can put in the work and come away with a statistically sound bet. Let’s say that you like to take the statistically safe over and unders on any given game. Doing this allows you to place a bet at the beginning of the year that can really payout by hitting the value picks.

Awards betting and gambling on day to day results are weighed by different factors. If I’m betting the Giants to beat an over today against the Padres I have a bunch of hard numbers to look into. If I am betting today on a CY award winner, it’s more of a feel thing. I am looking into defenses, divisional strength, the size of ballparks, and the way a guys stuff has looked in Spring…sure. At the end of the day however, the bets shrouded in uncertainty.  I am going to try and filter through some of that and give you my best “Value Picks” for this year’s AL and NL CY.

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American League

From oddsshark.com

  • Chris Sale +250
  • David Price +300
  • Corey Kluber +350
  • Dallas Keuchel +600
  • Felix Hernandez +600
  • Carlos Carrasco +800
  • Chris Archer +1200
  • Sonny Gray +1600
  • Cole Hamels +2000
  • Garrett Richards +2000
  • Danny Salazar +2500
  • Marcus Stroman +3300
  • Justin Verlander +3300
  • Masahiro Tanaka +5000
  • Yordano Ventura +5000
  • Taijuan Walker +5000
  • Carlos Rodon +5000
  • Michael Pineda +5000
  • Jordan Zimmermann +5000
  • Collin McHugh +6600
  • Jose Quintana +8000
  • Jake Odorizzi +8000
  • Ian Kennedy +10000
  • Luis Severino +10000
  • Rick Porcello +20000

I hate picks 1-6.

Sale- Sale is the truth. He is the perfect combination of stuff, pitchability, and competitiveness. His problem from a betting standpoint is similar to Kershaw. The value just isn’t there for me. 100 bucks to win 250 when you have some names in this list who have near as good of a chance to take the award home with much larger payouts.

Price- Boston is an uncertainty right now. Their defense is spotty, and their offense is a complete question mark in a division with a TON of hitting. Price has an uphill battle, and at his current valuation…no go.

Kluber- Hate his team’s chances in the same division as the Royals and Whitesox. If the Whitesox win that division and the race is between Kluber and Sale…Sale wins. Kluber at +350 is awful for that reason alone.

Keuchel- Houston scores so inconsistently, while striking out a bunch. When Matt Cain first came up the Giants were a similar type of team. While their talent wasn’t that of Houston’s now, the way they scored runs was. I see Keuchel playing for a bottom dweller team standings wise this season, with a low wins record. Stay away at +600…Bite at +1000.

King Felix- I guess I should modify the “Hate” thing a little here. I don’t hate this bet. I just don’t love it. The reason I am staying away comes from a bet I do love over in Oakland.

Carrasco- See Kluber

Value Bets

Sonny Gray- The A’s are poised this year to pull off one of their runs nobody sees coming. Gray will lead that charge from a pitching standpoint. At +1600 you have got to be joking. If the A’s win that division Sonny Gray has a stellar year. A stellar year puts him in a strong place for the award. Couple in his stuff, all the room in The Coliseum, and my dislike for many of the awards front runners…BET

Jordan Zimmerman- He has the previously stated “Kluber” reasons going against him. But at +5000 you have to take a look. He strikes people out, he keeps runners out of scoring position, and I don’t know if Detroit is as bad as the look right now.

Garret Richards- I am a sucker year in year out for the Angels. So far they are making me out to be a sucker again. But that team has TALENT. If the A’s don’t do it, they might. Garret Richards has strikeout stuff and figures to contribute mightily to a playoff push. So at +2000 I am taking a risk.

National League

  • Clayton Kershaw +175
  • Jake Arrieta +700
  • Madison Bumgarner +1000
  • Max Scherzer +1000
  • Matt Harvey +1000
  • Jose Fernandez +1200
  • Jacob deGrom +1400
  • Stephen Strasburg +1400
  • Zack Greinke +2000
  • Johhny Cueto +2000
  • Gerrit Cole +2000
  • Noah Syndergaard +2000
  • Adam Wainwright +2000
  • Jon Lester +2500
  • Carlos Martinez +3300
  • Tyson Ross +5000
  • Francisco Liriano +5000
  • James Shields +5000
  • Michael Wacha +5000
  • Jeff Samardzija +5000
  • Steven Matz +6600
  • Shelby Miller +8000
  • John Lackey +10000
  • Gio Gonzalez +10000
  • Scott Kazmir +10000

Don’t Do It

Clayton Kershaw- Unless you have 5 grand to throw at him the worth just isn’t there.

Johnny Cueto- High hits per 9 in a park with a ton of real estate. Hate him on the Giants, hate him as a pick. Bum or Cain win the award if they win the division.

Matt Harvey- Mat Harvey could certainly win this award. So could DeGrom, or Syndegaard. From a value standpoint, if I’m choosing a Mets ace, I’m choosing Syndegaard. The Mets may be there at the end of the year based on their pitching. Each guy is just as likely as the next to win it. Take the value or don’t take any of it.

Value Bets

Max Scherzer- Former Cy, stud Ace, great team. At +1000 you can’t not take this bet. The Nationals are going to win that division. The Mets may leak into the playoffs behind their arms…or they may not. The Nationals will 100% be in the discussion at the end of the year. Max Scherzer will have the minimum statistical accomplishments to be in the CY discussion. Bet.

Arrietta/Cole/Wainwright- These three guys, on these three teams, are monsters. It’s funny that the guy with the second lowest odds can be considered value…but that’s what Clayton Kershaw does to the league. All three of these guys will have a ton of wins, a ton of K’s, and a great ERA. At +700, +2000, +2000, all three can be considered good value selections.

The values on these picks allow for a pretty good pay day at the end of the year. If you have the green , play my picks for the best bang for the buck.

Prov

2016 March Madness Value Bets

NCAA Title Bets

We are about a month away from the NCAA Tournament and it is time to assess the betting boards for value. I have broken the teams into 3 different tiers, although I think they are all worthy bets. I believe the most important factors in a teams Championship chances are the Coaching and Guard play.

Tier One Teams

Virginia +1400 – Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill are both 5th year seniors, the teams leading scorers, averaging around 15 ppg each. Virginia is astounding as a team from 3 pt range averaging 40%. They have three top guards and have dominated the ACC the past couple years, priming them with experience for the Tournament.

Kentucky +1200 – Even in a turnover year Coach Calipari has possibly the best backcourt in the nation with true point guard Tyler Ulis and lottery-pick shooting guard James Murray. The Wildcats have an athletic advantage at virtually every position but can they overcome their lack of experience?

b ingramDuke +1400 – Brandon Ingram is challenging to become the #1 pick in the NBA draft and Grayson Allen is a college star. Their main weaknesses are the front-court in comparison to other contenders, and a middle of the pack defense. Duke has been entrenched in the top 5 of offensive efficiency all season, couple that with legendary Coach K and this team will surprise no one with a Final Four run.

Tier Two Teams

Indiana +3300 – Yogi Ferrell is a great point guard that is often overlooked. Ferrell is the senior leader that shoots a tremendous percentage from everywhere on the court. The Hoosiers are atop the Big 10 conference and sport four players that average over 11ppg. A balanced team is vital come tournament time as Coaches formulate defenses to stop individual scoring specialists. This might be the first time Coach Crean gets his team back to the Final Four since Dwyane Wades’ Marquette run. Best value at the moment.

West Virginia +4000 – Coach Bob Huggins constantly finds streetballers that play hard defense. The type of players are often raw but fearless. A pressing team that have 6 players that average around 10 ppg. This team is currently ranked in the top 30 of both offensive and defensive efficiency, a great quality for this future bet.

UCONN +4000 – Shonn Miller, Rodney Purvis, and Sterling Gibbs are veteran leaders for this team and all average over 12ppg. Daniel Hamilton is a sophomore standout that is extremely balanced with an 11/9/5 stat line, he also leads the team in FT% with 86%. Coach Kevin Ollie led the Huskies to the title with two good guards and now he has four. This team has everything to become a giant killer in March.

Tier Three

ProvProvidence +6600 – Armed with the top point guard prospect for the NBA in Kris Dunn who is averaging 17 pts, 6 rebs, 7 assists and 3 steals. Ben Benti and Rodney Bullock are sophomores that combine to average 32 points and 15 rebounds. The Friars are young and talented but have underachieved all year. There is great potential in Dunn leading this team far but I am worried he is merely coasting to his multi-million dollar payday and not hungry enough to realize his skill and dominate the Tournament. 66-1 though is one of my favorite bets.

Notre Dame +6600 – Demetrius Jackson is a beast and one of the best point guards in College Basketball. The Fighting Irish have 5 players that average 12 or more per game and 4 of them are Upperclassmen. Expect tons of shootouts when Notre Dame plays they are the Nations #1 Offensive Team, but stop no one defensively ranked a paltry #218.

Syracuse +7500 – They lack any depth but play a unique zone defense that stifles opponents and forces them to have hot shooting nights. Their top four scorers Gbinije, Cooney, Richardson, and Lydon all shoot over 35% from 3. The Orange are a different team under the guidance of Coach Boeheim and will be great value at 75-1 if they close the year on a hot streak.