bgriff

NBA Title Bets – Value Plays

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There are a few spots worth noting in the recent release of odds to win the NBA title. Although likely that one of the big three teams (Golden St, Cleveland or San Antonio) wins it all, there is no current value in betting them as they are all under 3/1. Teams that are battle tested with veteran leadership and good coaching are decent teams to target despite long odds. Here’s a few I really like at the moment.

LA Clippers +2200 –
They can win on the road (18-10) which is one of the biggest factors for winning playoff series. The Clippers have kept pace with the top of the Western Conference often without Blake Griffin. Chris Paul is the best leader at the point guard position and has his best supporting cast yet with Redick, Pierce and Crawford. Unloading Lance Stephenson for Jeff Green at the trade deadline should give them an upgrade in both rebounding and offensive consistency. Assuming Griffin works through his issues and assumes the attitude of Paul, this veteran team could get through to the Finals.

Chicago Bulls +5500 –
They are never healthy, old and have no depth. But when they are healthy they can win any playoff series with heart alone. A front-court of Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah is very athletic and unselfish. They are team players that are aggressive on both sides of the ball. The Bulls will grind teams down defensively and force them into mistakes, but it is hard to envision them keeping pace with sharpshooting teams that utilize the 3 point shot well. If Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler dominate they have a chance.

Miami Heat +6000 –
Miami probably has the best Coach in the East, decent depth, and above average players at every starting position. The difference in my mind of whether or not this would be worth a bet is the status of the blood clot in Chris Bosh’s leg. It seems as though he has health issues that can be life threatening and could retire soon. If that is not the case and he can continue at his all star level, combined with a resurgent Dwyane Wade, the Heat are great value at 60/1.

Jose Aldo vs Frankie Edgar

Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo – UFC Picks

Jose Aldo vs Frankie Edgar

The day has finally come. Conor McGregor (18-2-0) and Jose Aldo (25-1-0) Ufc 194 has arrived.

This fight has been long over due considering Aldo’s injury during Ufc’s 189, forcing Mendez to replace him at the last minute. This gave McGregor huge bragging rights, ending the fight with a straight left hand.

The over-confident Conor McGregor has much to prove against the 10 year win streak from Aldo.   Conor claims in his latest interview to be “bullet proof”, but judging from previous events of Rousey, Silva, and Vanzant, the convinced seem to lack the hunger it takes to conquer. Will this be the year our favorites fall?

My Prediction

Based on the fact that he has a better take down defense and is a better striker, I predict that Aldo will walk away with the Featherweight championship, and a new Reebok contract.

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16-0 Season Odds – Bet On Undefeated Seasons

tom-brady-patriotsjpg-632a823f54448814There are 5 undefeated teams in the NFL going into Week 6. Here are the odds of each going undefeated, as well as going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl.

Patriots
25/1 to go 16-0.
75/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Packers
30/1 to go 16-0.
90/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Broncos
100/1 to go 16-0.
325/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Bengals
175/1 to go 16-0.
500/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Panthers
500/1 to go 16-0.
1000/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

*Odds from PaddyPower.com

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MVP Picks – 2015 NFL Futures

Andrew-Luck_crop_northLast year we had 2 picks for NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers & Andrew Luck. Rodgers won the MVP at 7.5-1 odds, and Luck was a solid horse that was in contention throughout the season who we got at 20-1. These were both bet before the season began.

After looking at this years odds, we have come up with our picks for NFL MVP in the 2015 season.

As per usual we have a few horses, all whom we consider to have a great chance to win along with having incredible value as well.

Something to keep in mind before reading further or making a bet, is that the NFL MVP race tends to be very QB heavy with past winners, and a wide receiver has NEVER won it in the history of the league.

NFL MVP PICKS – 2015

 

Andrew Luck Odds: 8-1

Andrew-Luck_crop_northAndrew Luck is the 2nd odds-on favorite to win the MVP behind Aaron Rodgers, and we believe that this is his year. He could’ve won it last year when his odds started at a lowly 20-1, and now he has added Andre Johnson to lineup opposite TY Hilton, and added Frank Gore to the backfield.

Not only has Luck gotten better every year, but the Colts look like they are better than they’ve been since the Peyton Manning days. Luck likely will break records in his career and get at least one MVP, hopefully this is the year he breaks out as the leagues top QB.

 

Ben Roethlisberger Odds: 14-1

ben-roethlisberger-says-the-steelers-are-the-worst-team-in-the-leagueBig Ben threw for over 4,900 yards last year and had the best year of his career. This year he happens to also be 2nd odds on favorite for total passing yards. This leads me to believe that barring injuries, he will be heavily involved in the MVP race until the end.

Roethlisberger has not yet won the MVP award in his career, and it is just about the only thing that he is missing. He is great value at 14-1, especially with possibly the most talented offensive players in the league around him at RB (Bell) and WR (Brown).

 

Tony Romo Odds: 20-1

Tony-Romo-will-pile-up-yards-vs-Patriots-R1FHFDB-x-largeTony Romo is another QB that has had a stellar career with near MVP performances, but still has not won one. With arguably the most talented receiver in the league in Dez Bryant, he will without a doubt be in the discussion towards the end of the season. 20-1 on your money is great value, and likely will move to 12-1 or less by mid season.

The loss of superstar RB Demarco Murray may hurt Romo or help him, but if the Cowboys can win their division, look for Romo to be in the final few MVP candidates.

 

Eddie Lacey Odds: 25-1

131222-steelers-4-16x9At 25-1, Eddie Lacey is an absolute value steal for a top 3 RB in the league, on a fan-favorite team with a high powered offense and serious Super Bowl ambitions.

Lacey also has great hands and gets a lot of receptions, recieving yards, and TDs. With Bell on suspension and Peterson on bad terms with the league, this just may be Lacey’s year to get the glory.

 

Eli Manning Odds: 50-1

hi-res-180087621-quarterback-eli-manning-of-the-new-york-giants-reacts_crop_northEli Manning may be the best value pick for MVP at the beginning of this 2015 season. 50-1 is just insane odds on a man with the last name Manning to win an MVP. These odds are sure to go down to 20-1 or less by mid-season.

Eli has not won the MVP yet in his career, but he has perhaps the best receiving corps of his career with Beckham and Cruz. Like Romo, if the NYG can win their division, Eli will be in the MVP talks. At 50-1, it seems like a crime to not put something on it.

 

Attachment 1

Johnman’s Week 2 NFL Bets & NCAA Picks

College-NFL Football Bets/Anaylsis

3 Team Parlay, risk $50 tw $300

LSU-33,
Home vs an inferior team , LSU is 10th nationally and looking to climb with a blowout win.
Southern Miss +47,
Saban gets his teams up quick and loves the game control ending,
rarely resulting in many 40pt+ victory margins
Florida Atlantic +1.5,
I like taking home teams + minimal pts when the public is betting the road team.

Reverse , $200 tw $800

Texas-San Antonio +13
Never heard of this college, ever. Boone Pickens Stadium is used to shootouts and OKST running away with the game, this feels like neither. Seems vegas is baiting the public into thinking a 2nd victory margin is likely.  I see the under and OKST by 7.
Notre Dame/Purdue OVER 59
My pal Josh is loaded up on this and I see Purdue needing to put up 25+ pts to have any shot.

Exacta San Fran -7, risk $75 tw $500

This game is tailored to SF’s strength and Chicago’s defensive weakness, running. I think SF will be up early,
maybe even by 3 touchdowns, but their prevent defense will allow Cutler two undeserved garbage tds.
SF 35 – CHI 28

3 Team Tease, $100 tw $150 (6pt +150)
SF-1
CIN+1.5
GB -1.5

Looks really good to me, Bears offensive potential only thing keeping me from a man-bet.

4 Team Parlay, $100 tw $550
Den-13
GB-7.5
NO Moneyline
NE Moneyline

I do love this bet. Rodgers over Geno, Peyton over A. Smith, Brees over Hoyer, Brady over Cassell.
Clear advantages for the top QBs in the league and the away teams just have to win outright. Denver destroys people at home and Green Bay will be out for blood, home vs a bad secondary.

Single Bets, risk $110 each

New Orleans/ Cleveland UNDER 48
Public is on the over hard. I see Browns giving Brees trouble for first half. NO 20-17

Philly +3
This line is odd to me opened at +5 and Indy is tempting with Luck at home. I feel that the Eagle
Offense is a matchup nightmare for the Colts and they will win outright. PHI 27-20

Carolina -2.5
Public on away Detroit after Megatron killed it on the national stage. Carolina’s defense was very good week one.
Look for Cam Newton to come back and rejuvenate the team to a home win. CAR 24-14

Cinci -4.5
This was the first line that stood out to me and tempting to take Atlanta with the momentum from their win over the Saints.
That would be a mistake as the Bengals defense if underrated and homefield could lead to a comfortable win. CIN 31-17