Tony Romo 2016 MVP Betsome

2016 NFL MVP Future Bets

Tony Romo 2016 MVP Betsome
Here is how I would invest $100 for this year’s MVP award. There are some nice value spots in quarterbacks on playoff teams. I typically fade the favorite when betting futures and try to find the best player on teams destined for regular season success.

ANDREW LUCK (12-1) $30 to win $360

Luck will be bouncing back from an injury riddled 2015 season in which he played 7 games and never got into a rhythm. In 2014 Luck lit up the league with 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Most of that year Luck was the front-runner for the award, before Aaron Rodgers surpassed him with less mistakes and more wins.

At age 26, he is entering his prime and should win multiple MVP awards, 12-1 seems like a great price to pounce on.

ELI MANNING (25-1) $20 to win $500

The Giants addressed their defensive issues this offseason which should lead to more field time for Eli. Ben McAdoo moves from offensive coordinator to head coach, so you can expect Manning’s passing numbers to be very similar to the 600+ pass attempts of his past two seasons.

Manning has yet to win the award at age 35 but has enjoyed his greatest statistical seasons the past two years. Eli has played all 16 games every year besides his rookie season, an enormous model of consistency. The only downfall of this bet is his proclivity for extremely high interception totals.

TONY ROMO (25-1) $20 to win $500

The Cowboys are all around healthy and have added a 3-down back in the draft with Ezekiel Elliot. They have the top offensive line in the league, boasting 3 all-pros to protect Romo. This division is up for grabs and Romo will have less pressure to force things with Elliot in tow.

The Cowboys thinnest position is by far wide receiver, with Terrence Williams and Cole Beasley behind Dez Bryant on the depth chart. It will be interesting to see if Witten and Elliot can become consistent enough to help alleviate Bryant’s defensive attention. In 2014 the Cowboys narrowly lost to the Packers (on an overturned Dez catch) missing out on an NFC championship appearance. Winning the NFC East and securing a top playoff seed can be enough to win Romo the award.

ADRIAN PETERSON (33-1) $25 to win $825

The Vikings are quietly very good after producing an 11-5 season. They have a top defense and stifle opponents offensive momentum by feeding Peterson a heavy workload. Locked in for 300+ carries, Peterson can easily produce 1500+ rushing yards and 12+ touchdowns.

This is great value at 33-1 for an all-time great that is by no means past his prime and guaranteed a heavy workload.

DEREK CARR (50-1) $5 to win $250

The Raiders are the Cinderella team for the 2016 season. A great mix of savvy veterans and elite young stars. They have three top players in QB Derek Carr, WR Amari Cooper, and LB Khalil Mack. Carr produced a phenomenal sophomore campaign with 32 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. He is a gutsy player who has drawn comparisons to Brett Favre for his style of play.

I believe the AFC is up for grabs with Tom Brady’s 4 game suspension, and 50-1 for a proven quarterback on a dangerous team seems like a nice longshot.

DON’T FALL FOR

J.J. WATT (25-1) The new face of the NFL will have to crush the all-time sack record AND make the Texans relevant to win the award, 25-1 is purely based on his popularity.

ROB GRONKOWSKI (66-1) Brady’s 4 game absence may equate to more targets for Gronk, but the signing of proven free agent TE Martellus Bennett could eat into Gronk’s red zone success.

ANY WIDE RECEIVER (66-1+) No receiver has ever won the award, a nod to the importance of the quarterback position. The only way I see this changing is if a wide-out breaks the all time receptions record, via a turnover prone quarterback.

Take a flier on Antonio Brown (66-1) and Julio Jones(100-1) if you can’t help yourself, both threatened Marvin Harrison’s 143 catch season, with 136 each last year.

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Betting MLB Futures – 2016 Championship Odds & Picks

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As the long journey toward the world series just begins, all teams in Major League Baseball turn their eyes forward with hopeful eyes at the crown. Will the Giants continue their even-year streak, and win a 4th? Will the pitching heavy Mets battle their way to the playoffs, then let their arms handcuff opposing hitters? Or will the long downtrodden Cubs finally make the push, and cement their place in history?

Like the Cy Young picks, it is tough to predict winners so early in a season. Talent is almost never the soul determinant of a winner. The Angels would have a handful of hardware if that were the case.  This type of predicting is again, at best shots in mild darkness.

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Pitching Staff

When I do weigh in on future world series winners, I try to do so in a semi-standardized way. The very first thing I weigh is a pitching staffs viability. Do they have a stable of guys who can maintain production through the course of 162 games. That begins with the starting 5. I need to see strength through 4 guys, and stability in the 5th for any team to look like a real contender.

On top of that, I really want to see a guy with tremendous “Stuff” at the top of the rotation. A guy with high pitch-ability is fantastic, and a must have. A guy with stuff and high pitch-ability can win even when his pitches aren’t hitting spots. A 98 mile per hour fastball on the hands is almost impossible to hit. Whether the fastball is followed by the perfect tilt, off speed pitch down, or not. Guys like that will win you games consistently in the playoffs.

Seeing a strong back end of a rotation is another must. A lights out setup guy and closer shorten games. When teams get into the playoffs, having to win 7 innings opposed to 9 is a huge value. I think that’s easy enough to see.

If a team has those two things, plus a good long relief guy I think they have play-0ff viability.

Don’t Bet On Teams That Strike Out

Offensively the biggest non starter for me is a team that strikes out a ton. As they are playing now, the Huston Astros will never win a world series. Give me a team like the Royals any day: high contact rates, high on base %, high wins rate. A strike out is as killer to an offense as a walk is to a defense. There is literally nothing a TEAM can do to defend a walk. It is very much the same for a “K”. Striking out does nothing for runners on base, nothing to the defense, nothing for the hitter on deck; crippling.

That is the primary thing I look for in an offense. If a team can score runs, they can win as long as they don’t strike out a ton. Someone may point to teams who have had success hitting the long ball and striking out a ton. I would point to the Mets and say “have fun stringing together multiple solo shots against that staff in a 7 game set”.

Team Defenses

Another overlooked factor is defense. But for this you need to look at the makeup of a team. Instead of taking the one factor “defense”, look at a teams fundamentals. How do they approach 2 strikes, runners in scoring position, base running, and decision making defensively. If they do those things well it would point  towards a winner for me.

So compounding all these factors, we may be able to get a clearer look at potential winners.

Look For Opportunities To Hedge In The Playoffs

Another factor that influences my betting in this area is hedging. I will take long-odds teams based on their ability to get into the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, you can hedge your bets by betting against them in each series, and come away with a very profitable situation.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14516801/mlb-latest-2016-world-series-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook

2016 World Series Odds
TEAM OPEN APRIL 25
Chicago Cubs 10-1 7-2
New York Mets 10-1 8
Kansas City Royals 14-1 10
Washington Nationals 10-1 10
San Francisco Giants 20-1 12
Los Angeles Dodgers 8-1 12
Texas Rangers 12-1 14
Cleveland Indians 20-1 14
Toronto Blue Jays 10-1 16
Boston Red Sox 18-1 18
Chicago White Sox 40-1 18
Houston Astros 14-1 20
St. Louis Cardinals 12-1 20
Baltimore Orioles 40-1 20
Detroit Tigers 20-1 30
New York Yankees 16-1 30
Seattle Mariners 30-1 30
Pittsburgh Pirates 12-1 35
Arizona Diamondbacks 60-1 40
Tampa Bay Rays 40-1 40
Los Angeles Angels 20-1 50
Oakland Athletics 60-1 80
Minnesota Twins 40-1 100
Miami Marlins 60-1 100
Colorado Rockies 150-1 200
San Diego Padres 60-1 300
Philadelphia Phillies 300-1 300
Cincinnati Reds 60-1 500
Milwaukee Brewers 60-1 500
Atlanta Braves 100-1 1000

The Front Runners

METS 8-1

For the billionth time….METS METS METS. If this team makes the playoffs they are running through every team they face that isn’t named the Giants or Cardinals. That pitching staff can absolutely demolish lineups (See 2015 Cubs). They only chance teams have against that stable of thoroughbreds is contact, men on base, and smart decision making on the base paths.  8-1 isn’t exactly a value bet, but this team has a very good chance at making the playoffs. Once they make it, they will make a deep run undoubtedly.

ROYALS 10-1

The back end of this pen makes games 6 innings. Same story as the previous 2 years. They make great contact offensively (see 2015 world series). They were good, they are good, they will be good. 10 to 1 is getting a little better, so I don’t hate putting money on a very good team that is expected to do well here.

GIANTS 12-1

If they pitch they will win. MadBum hasn’t looked like himself early, I have a ton of questions about Cueto, and the back end is terribly inconsistent. One thing I do know is that fundamentally this team can play ball. The have very good situational hitting, they play stellar defense, and they have the ability to run. Match that up with Bruce Bochy and a team full of veterans who have done it before and spell it wit me S.U.C.C.E.S.S.

Value Picks

CARDINALS 20-1

The Cardinals at 20 to 1 is a steal. That team has pitching. Wainwright, Wacha, Leake, Martinez, and Garcia. Two guys who can go out and dominate teams with high pitchability and stuff, a third in Martinez with the same caliber of stuff (just a tad bit less pitchability), and solid back end guys. The staff is there for me. Offensively, they are very savy with a lot of talent. 20 to 1 on a team wit this much experience is a very smart bet.

OAKLAND 80-1

I LOVE OAKLAND…to make the playoffs. At 80 to 1, you get them to the playoffs and start hedging your bet and you find yourself in a very profitable situation. There is just something about this organization that puts teams out there every so often that win despite everything else. They have a good young staff with decent young talent in the field. I promise you I’m betting Oakland personally this year, so if they tank I tank as well. Should tell you something about my conviction.

ARIZONA 40-1

They have to beat the Giants and Dodgers…a very tall order. With Grienke, they have an ace capable of beating anyone. Miller and Corbin make a great 2-3 punch, that matches or beats any the Dodgers and Giants have. For me the staff is there, if the bullpen performs. Offensively they are lead by a top 5 hitter in the league. Paul Goldschmit is the truth. Behind him  they are young and inexperienced. At 40 to 1 it is close for me. I hate that they have to beat 2 solid teams to get out of the division. Especially when the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs are all very talented in the central. They can do it however, and at for 40 to 1 they payoff is large enough to outweigh the risk.

DETROIT 30-1

I have been saying since they end of last year that the Tigers are not as bad as they seem. Verlander, Sanchez, Zimmerman at the front end of a solid staff. Cabrera, Kinsler, Martinez, and Upton should scare any staff not from New York named the Mets. I’m not sold on these guys, but at 30-1 they intrigue me. If they keep winning you are going to regret not getting in early.

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Betting the 2016 Cy Young Winner

 

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Bills are piling up, the wife is on your back about some new project around the house, or you just want to make some cash; this year’s CY odds are prime to be taken advantage of.

If you want to avoid my philosophy on MLB awards betting skip to the bottom. If you want to understand what comprises a value pick…read on.

My System

I always view betting on baseball awards as long term investments. Obviously, there is the long wait. If you get in on the action at the beginning of the year, you have a 162 games to wait for your payout. Your day to day gambling in relation to your awards betting is where the true commonality comes into play. You should approach your bet as a balancing act with your short term betting. If you are a game to game gambler, you know that a lot of factors come into play.

R vs L, L vs R, R vs R, L vs L, day vs night, dome vs open air, turf vs grass,  pitchability and stuff vs approach, previous match-ups, streaks, and trends. By the end of it all, you realize one truth. Despite your due diligence, averages are averages. As a gambler it can’t be predicted how they will work themselves out on paper.

I don’t believe that any game betting can be considered “safe” for that reason. If you are a believer of statistical representation however, you can put in the work and come away with a statistically sound bet. Let’s say that you like to take the statistically safe over and unders on any given game. Doing this allows you to place a bet at the beginning of the year that can really payout by hitting the value picks.

Awards betting and gambling on day to day results are weighed by different factors. If I’m betting the Giants to beat an over today against the Padres I have a bunch of hard numbers to look into. If I am betting today on a CY award winner, it’s more of a feel thing. I am looking into defenses, divisional strength, the size of ballparks, and the way a guys stuff has looked in Spring…sure. At the end of the day however, the bets shrouded in uncertainty.  I am going to try and filter through some of that and give you my best “Value Picks” for this year’s AL and NL CY.

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American League

From oddsshark.com

  • Chris Sale +250
  • David Price +300
  • Corey Kluber +350
  • Dallas Keuchel +600
  • Felix Hernandez +600
  • Carlos Carrasco +800
  • Chris Archer +1200
  • Sonny Gray +1600
  • Cole Hamels +2000
  • Garrett Richards +2000
  • Danny Salazar +2500
  • Marcus Stroman +3300
  • Justin Verlander +3300
  • Masahiro Tanaka +5000
  • Yordano Ventura +5000
  • Taijuan Walker +5000
  • Carlos Rodon +5000
  • Michael Pineda +5000
  • Jordan Zimmermann +5000
  • Collin McHugh +6600
  • Jose Quintana +8000
  • Jake Odorizzi +8000
  • Ian Kennedy +10000
  • Luis Severino +10000
  • Rick Porcello +20000

I hate picks 1-6.

Sale- Sale is the truth. He is the perfect combination of stuff, pitchability, and competitiveness. His problem from a betting standpoint is similar to Kershaw. The value just isn’t there for me. 100 bucks to win 250 when you have some names in this list who have near as good of a chance to take the award home with much larger payouts.

Price- Boston is an uncertainty right now. Their defense is spotty, and their offense is a complete question mark in a division with a TON of hitting. Price has an uphill battle, and at his current valuation…no go.

Kluber- Hate his team’s chances in the same division as the Royals and Whitesox. If the Whitesox win that division and the race is between Kluber and Sale…Sale wins. Kluber at +350 is awful for that reason alone.

Keuchel- Houston scores so inconsistently, while striking out a bunch. When Matt Cain first came up the Giants were a similar type of team. While their talent wasn’t that of Houston’s now, the way they scored runs was. I see Keuchel playing for a bottom dweller team standings wise this season, with a low wins record. Stay away at +600…Bite at +1000.

King Felix- I guess I should modify the “Hate” thing a little here. I don’t hate this bet. I just don’t love it. The reason I am staying away comes from a bet I do love over in Oakland.

Carrasco- See Kluber

Value Bets

Sonny Gray- The A’s are poised this year to pull off one of their runs nobody sees coming. Gray will lead that charge from a pitching standpoint. At +1600 you have got to be joking. If the A’s win that division Sonny Gray has a stellar year. A stellar year puts him in a strong place for the award. Couple in his stuff, all the room in The Coliseum, and my dislike for many of the awards front runners…BET

Jordan Zimmerman- He has the previously stated “Kluber” reasons going against him. But at +5000 you have to take a look. He strikes people out, he keeps runners out of scoring position, and I don’t know if Detroit is as bad as the look right now.

Garret Richards- I am a sucker year in year out for the Angels. So far they are making me out to be a sucker again. But that team has TALENT. If the A’s don’t do it, they might. Garret Richards has strikeout stuff and figures to contribute mightily to a playoff push. So at +2000 I am taking a risk.

National League

  • Clayton Kershaw +175
  • Jake Arrieta +700
  • Madison Bumgarner +1000
  • Max Scherzer +1000
  • Matt Harvey +1000
  • Jose Fernandez +1200
  • Jacob deGrom +1400
  • Stephen Strasburg +1400
  • Zack Greinke +2000
  • Johhny Cueto +2000
  • Gerrit Cole +2000
  • Noah Syndergaard +2000
  • Adam Wainwright +2000
  • Jon Lester +2500
  • Carlos Martinez +3300
  • Tyson Ross +5000
  • Francisco Liriano +5000
  • James Shields +5000
  • Michael Wacha +5000
  • Jeff Samardzija +5000
  • Steven Matz +6600
  • Shelby Miller +8000
  • John Lackey +10000
  • Gio Gonzalez +10000
  • Scott Kazmir +10000

Don’t Do It

Clayton Kershaw- Unless you have 5 grand to throw at him the worth just isn’t there.

Johnny Cueto- High hits per 9 in a park with a ton of real estate. Hate him on the Giants, hate him as a pick. Bum or Cain win the award if they win the division.

Matt Harvey- Mat Harvey could certainly win this award. So could DeGrom, or Syndegaard. From a value standpoint, if I’m choosing a Mets ace, I’m choosing Syndegaard. The Mets may be there at the end of the year based on their pitching. Each guy is just as likely as the next to win it. Take the value or don’t take any of it.

Value Bets

Max Scherzer- Former Cy, stud Ace, great team. At +1000 you can’t not take this bet. The Nationals are going to win that division. The Mets may leak into the playoffs behind their arms…or they may not. The Nationals will 100% be in the discussion at the end of the year. Max Scherzer will have the minimum statistical accomplishments to be in the CY discussion. Bet.

Arrietta/Cole/Wainwright- These three guys, on these three teams, are monsters. It’s funny that the guy with the second lowest odds can be considered value…but that’s what Clayton Kershaw does to the league. All three of these guys will have a ton of wins, a ton of K’s, and a great ERA. At +700, +2000, +2000, all three can be considered good value selections.

The values on these picks allow for a pretty good pay day at the end of the year. If you have the green , play my picks for the best bang for the buck.

Prov

2016 March Madness Value Bets

NCAA Title Bets

We are about a month away from the NCAA Tournament and it is time to assess the betting boards for value. I have broken the teams into 3 different tiers, although I think they are all worthy bets. I believe the most important factors in a teams Championship chances are the Coaching and Guard play.

Tier One Teams

Virginia +1400 – Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill are both 5th year seniors, the teams leading scorers, averaging around 15 ppg each. Virginia is astounding as a team from 3 pt range averaging 40%. They have three top guards and have dominated the ACC the past couple years, priming them with experience for the Tournament.

Kentucky +1200 – Even in a turnover year Coach Calipari has possibly the best backcourt in the nation with true point guard Tyler Ulis and lottery-pick shooting guard James Murray. The Wildcats have an athletic advantage at virtually every position but can they overcome their lack of experience?

b ingramDuke +1400 – Brandon Ingram is challenging to become the #1 pick in the NBA draft and Grayson Allen is a college star. Their main weaknesses are the front-court in comparison to other contenders, and a middle of the pack defense. Duke has been entrenched in the top 5 of offensive efficiency all season, couple that with legendary Coach K and this team will surprise no one with a Final Four run.

Tier Two Teams

Indiana +3300 – Yogi Ferrell is a great point guard that is often overlooked. Ferrell is the senior leader that shoots a tremendous percentage from everywhere on the court. The Hoosiers are atop the Big 10 conference and sport four players that average over 11ppg. A balanced team is vital come tournament time as Coaches formulate defenses to stop individual scoring specialists. This might be the first time Coach Crean gets his team back to the Final Four since Dwyane Wades’ Marquette run. Best value at the moment.

West Virginia +4000 – Coach Bob Huggins constantly finds streetballers that play hard defense. The type of players are often raw but fearless. A pressing team that have 6 players that average around 10 ppg. This team is currently ranked in the top 30 of both offensive and defensive efficiency, a great quality for this future bet.

UCONN +4000 – Shonn Miller, Rodney Purvis, and Sterling Gibbs are veteran leaders for this team and all average over 12ppg. Daniel Hamilton is a sophomore standout that is extremely balanced with an 11/9/5 stat line, he also leads the team in FT% with 86%. Coach Kevin Ollie led the Huskies to the title with two good guards and now he has four. This team has everything to become a giant killer in March.

Tier Three

ProvProvidence +6600 – Armed with the top point guard prospect for the NBA in Kris Dunn who is averaging 17 pts, 6 rebs, 7 assists and 3 steals. Ben Benti and Rodney Bullock are sophomores that combine to average 32 points and 15 rebounds. The Friars are young and talented but have underachieved all year. There is great potential in Dunn leading this team far but I am worried he is merely coasting to his multi-million dollar payday and not hungry enough to realize his skill and dominate the Tournament. 66-1 though is one of my favorite bets.

Notre Dame +6600 – Demetrius Jackson is a beast and one of the best point guards in College Basketball. The Fighting Irish have 5 players that average 12 or more per game and 4 of them are Upperclassmen. Expect tons of shootouts when Notre Dame plays they are the Nations #1 Offensive Team, but stop no one defensively ranked a paltry #218.

Syracuse +7500 – They lack any depth but play a unique zone defense that stifles opponents and forces them to have hot shooting nights. Their top four scorers Gbinije, Cooney, Richardson, and Lydon all shoot over 35% from 3. The Orange are a different team under the guidance of Coach Boeheim and will be great value at 75-1 if they close the year on a hot streak.

bgriff

NBA Title Bets – Value Plays

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There are a few spots worth noting in the recent release of odds to win the NBA title. Although likely that one of the big three teams (Golden St, Cleveland or San Antonio) wins it all, there is no current value in betting them as they are all under 3/1. Teams that are battle tested with veteran leadership and good coaching are decent teams to target despite long odds. Here’s a few I really like at the moment.

LA Clippers +2200 –
They can win on the road (18-10) which is one of the biggest factors for winning playoff series. The Clippers have kept pace with the top of the Western Conference often without Blake Griffin. Chris Paul is the best leader at the point guard position and has his best supporting cast yet with Redick, Pierce and Crawford. Unloading Lance Stephenson for Jeff Green at the trade deadline should give them an upgrade in both rebounding and offensive consistency. Assuming Griffin works through his issues and assumes the attitude of Paul, this veteran team could get through to the Finals.

Chicago Bulls +5500 –
They are never healthy, old and have no depth. But when they are healthy they can win any playoff series with heart alone. A front-court of Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah is very athletic and unselfish. They are team players that are aggressive on both sides of the ball. The Bulls will grind teams down defensively and force them into mistakes, but it is hard to envision them keeping pace with sharpshooting teams that utilize the 3 point shot well. If Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler dominate they have a chance.

Miami Heat +6000 –
Miami probably has the best Coach in the East, decent depth, and above average players at every starting position. The difference in my mind of whether or not this would be worth a bet is the status of the blood clot in Chris Bosh’s leg. It seems as though he has health issues that can be life threatening and could retire soon. If that is not the case and he can continue at his all star level, combined with a resurgent Dwyane Wade, the Heat are great value at 60/1.

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Betting NBA All Star Game MVP

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In this article I discuss the players’ odds of winning NBA All Star MVP, the bets that I like, and factors you may want to consider before you place your bet.

East

D.Wade – 60/1 – 12th
K Lowry – 22/1 – 2nd
P. George – 12/1 – 3rd
C. Anthony – 20/1 – 9th
L. James – 11/2 – 12th

C. Bosh – 90/1 – 11th
J. Butler – 25/1 – 2nd
A. Drummond – 60/1 – 1st
P. Millsap – 90/1 – 3rd
I. Thomas – 60/1 – 1st
J. Wall – 30/1 – 3rd
D. Derozan – 60/1 – 2nd

West

S. Curry – 7/2 – 3rd
R. Westbrook – 11/2 – 5th
K. Leonard – 22/1 – 1st
K. Bryant – 10/1 – 18th
K. Durant – 5/1 – 5th

J. Harden – 10/1 – 4th
L. Aldridge – 75/1 – 5th
D. Cousins – 22/1 – 2nd
A. Davis – 22/1 – 3rd
D. Green – 30/1 – 1st
C. Paul – 60/1 – 9th
K. Thompson – 12/1 – 2nd

Super-Stars Lacking Career Awards

Paul George, James Harden, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony.

Starters

Minutes matter and the winner is rarely off the bench. Dywane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Kawhi Leonard are the only starters that I don’t think have a shot at the award. Although Kobe may want to go for his 5th ASG MVP his odds at 10/1 don’t offer enough value to entice a bet from me.

All Star Game Veterans

This is often a seniority award. Players want it for their mantle and paying your dues in appearances is important.
This is Carmelo’s 9th, Bosh’s 11th, Harden’s 4th, George’s 3rd, Davis’s 3rd.

Selfish Players

The top point scorer on the winning team will win the majority of the time.
Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, James Harden.

Freak Stat Line & Triple Double Potentials

Lebron James, Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, Andre Drummond, Demarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis.

Game Storylines

Demar Derozan and Kyle Lowry are both playing in front of their home crowd.
Kobe is in his final All Star game.
Bosh returning to Toronto.

Best Value plays

D. Cousins 22-1 – Destroying the league right now could have 30/15 very easily.
A. Drummond 60-1 – Should have plethora of dunks and rebounds and no big men to contend with for minutes.
C. Bosh 90-1 – It’s his 11th appearance and he doesn’t have any personal awards.

Worst bets

K. Thompson 12/1 – Kyle Korver hit 7 threes in 15 minutes last year, shooters really stand no chance unless they are statistically balanced.
D. Green 30/1 – Sure everyone eyes this as potential given his all around game, but in his first appearance the minutes will not be there.
D. Wade 60/1 – these are odds for a starter?! Wade stopped trying after his championship hell be wrapped in towels taking selfies by the 2nd quarter.

How I would wager $100

$50 Kevin Durant to win $250
$20 Carmelo Anthony to win $400
$20 Demarcus Cousins to win $440
$10 Andre Drummond to win $600

Paul George

NBA Picks 2/1/16. 5-1 NBA Streak.

Paul George
Currently on a small 5-1 streak, here are my NBA picks for 2/1/16. Good luck!

Cavs @ Pacers

Pacers +5
1 seed playing the 7 seed, and a considerable difference in talent. This line should be 7+. I think the opening line of 4 indicates Pacers have the edge, and the public is all over the away favorite in this spot, as per usual. Both of these teams are great at home and weak away. I like the Pacers to win this game outright.

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NBA Picks 1/22/16 – Friday Bets

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Barely won last night with a 1 point cover and a fun sweat. Here are my NBA picks for 1/22/16.

Bulls @ Celtics

Celtics -3.5
Bulls without Noah and weak on the road, but it still feels like they should be favored. Public 80% on Bulls, but Boston wins this one convincingly and Isiah Thomas goes off.

Divisional Playoffs - Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos

NFL Playoff Picks – Conference Championship Bets

Divisional Playoffs - Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos

Patriots @ Broncos

Broncos +3
I hate betting against Brady, Bellichek, and the Pats. But I think that NE’s last regular season loss vs Miami, which decided who would have home field in this week’s matchup, is going to come back to haunt them.

Denver has the best defense in the league, and aside from last week, the Pats have been struggling against significant pass rushes when away. I see Denver winning this game but it should be close either way, which is why I like taking the points. Public heavy on Pats as well, which is always nice to go against.