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Updated CY Futures – 2016 MLB

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We’re now more than half way through the Major League Baseball season, and we have large bodies of work to evaluate and wager our money on now, so let’s get busy.

American League

Chris Sale +180
Cole Hamels +250
Aaron Sanchez +700
Danny Salazar +1200
Chris Tillman +1200
Justin Verlander +1400
J.A. Happ +1400
Rick Porcello +1600
Steven Wright +2000
Corey Kluber +2000
Michael Fulmer +2800

The American league has been a disaster. Many of the front runners fell off, and teams have flopped. Sprinkle some injuries in to complete the picture of chaos. Other than saying Chris Sale is the truth, I pretty much missed on the American league CY earlier this year. For me however, it will always be about value, and when you are betting for value you are going to miss sometimes.

That being said, let’s take a look at the betting with a little under halfway to go. At this stage of the game it is no longer about finding that golden nugget with astronomical odds. The body of work is too large for any one pitcher to have a complete turnaround from a 100-1 guy to CY. While I am still looking for value, we can’t just dismiss reality and someone’s actual chance at winning the award.

Cole Hamels +250

I’m not really saying that you should bet Hamels at +250. I am more acknowledging the fact that if you got it in at +2000 you are a betting god. I never would have placed Hamels at the top of this list. I think that is due in large part to the blindness I have for the AL West.

With Oakland every 4 years putting together contenders out of nowhere, the Angels always have star stacked squads and under performing, and Houston’s resurgence I have no clue how to read that division. So if you got it in at the beginning of the year… you killed it.

J.A. Happ +1400

J.A. Happ pitches for a team tied for the top spot in the toughest division in baseball. He has lead the team all year, and pitched at a clip worthy of the award. I think that if we see the Blue Jays take the American League East, and Happ finish with a sub 3 era and in the 19-21 win range he wins this award. At 14 to 1 thats not a bad investment.

Zach Britton ???

His odds will be unbelieveable. Remember how I said there were no more golden nuggets? I lied.

For starters, the 28-year-old lefty hasn’t blown a single save opportunity this season, going 34-for-34. If you count the All-Star Game, it’s 35-for-35. His ERA is lower than the limbo bar at a Lilliputian bar mitzvah (0.58). His WHIP is more like a blip (0.75).” (Matz).

He is a reliever so he has a huge battle to fight. If you see him get close to 45 saves however…ding ding WINNER. Eric Gagne 2.0. I have no idea if you can get this bet in anywhere because Bovada does not have him on there list.

National League

Stephen Strasburg -150
Madison Bumgarner +550
Clayton Kershaw +750
Jake Arrieta +1000
Johnny Cueto +1000
Max Scherzer +1000
Jose Fernandez +1600
Noah Syndergaard +2000

Strasburg at negative odds means great value elsewhere in this pool. I realize that Strasburg is a huge favorite but betting negative odds will never play in my book. You never know when a string of bad starts will happen.

Madison Bumgarner +550

If Strasburg doesn’t win this award Madison most likely will. So at 5.5 to 1 I will risk a few bucks on Mad Bum. The Giants are in a great position to win that division, and if they do…it will be on Mad Bum’s back.

Noah Syndegaard + 2000

He’s got the strikeouts, he’s got the era, he just doesn’t have the wins. If Noah turns in on in the second half and the Mets make the playoffs, couples with a Strasburg collapse…this may actually happen. At this late in the game, with odds like this, you have to take a chance.

Tony Romo 2016 MVP Betsome

2016 NFL MVP Future Bets

Tony Romo 2016 MVP Betsome
Here is how I would invest $100 for this year’s MVP award. There are some nice value spots in quarterbacks on playoff teams. I typically fade the favorite when betting futures and try to find the best player on teams destined for regular season success.

ANDREW LUCK (12-1) $30 to win $360

Luck will be bouncing back from an injury riddled 2015 season in which he played 7 games and never got into a rhythm. In 2014 Luck lit up the league with 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Most of that year Luck was the front-runner for the award, before Aaron Rodgers surpassed him with less mistakes and more wins.

At age 26, he is entering his prime and should win multiple MVP awards, 12-1 seems like a great price to pounce on.

ELI MANNING (25-1) $20 to win $500

The Giants addressed their defensive issues this offseason which should lead to more field time for Eli. Ben McAdoo moves from offensive coordinator to head coach, so you can expect Manning’s passing numbers to be very similar to the 600+ pass attempts of his past two seasons.

Manning has yet to win the award at age 35 but has enjoyed his greatest statistical seasons the past two years. Eli has played all 16 games every year besides his rookie season, an enormous model of consistency. The only downfall of this bet is his proclivity for extremely high interception totals.

TONY ROMO (25-1) $20 to win $500

The Cowboys are all around healthy and have added a 3-down back in the draft with Ezekiel Elliot. They have the top offensive line in the league, boasting 3 all-pros to protect Romo. This division is up for grabs and Romo will have less pressure to force things with Elliot in tow.

The Cowboys thinnest position is by far wide receiver, with Terrence Williams and Cole Beasley behind Dez Bryant on the depth chart. It will be interesting to see if Witten and Elliot can become consistent enough to help alleviate Bryant’s defensive attention. In 2014 the Cowboys narrowly lost to the Packers (on an overturned Dez catch) missing out on an NFC championship appearance. Winning the NFC East and securing a top playoff seed can be enough to win Romo the award.

ADRIAN PETERSON (33-1) $25 to win $825

The Vikings are quietly very good after producing an 11-5 season. They have a top defense and stifle opponents offensive momentum by feeding Peterson a heavy workload. Locked in for 300+ carries, Peterson can easily produce 1500+ rushing yards and 12+ touchdowns.

This is great value at 33-1 for an all-time great that is by no means past his prime and guaranteed a heavy workload.

DEREK CARR (50-1) $5 to win $250

The Raiders are the Cinderella team for the 2016 season. A great mix of savvy veterans and elite young stars. They have three top players in QB Derek Carr, WR Amari Cooper, and LB Khalil Mack. Carr produced a phenomenal sophomore campaign with 32 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. He is a gutsy player who has drawn comparisons to Brett Favre for his style of play.

I believe the AFC is up for grabs with Tom Brady’s 4 game suspension, and 50-1 for a proven quarterback on a dangerous team seems like a nice longshot.

DON’T FALL FOR

J.J. WATT (25-1) The new face of the NFL will have to crush the all-time sack record AND make the Texans relevant to win the award, 25-1 is purely based on his popularity.

ROB GRONKOWSKI (66-1) Brady’s 4 game absence may equate to more targets for Gronk, but the signing of proven free agent TE Martellus Bennett could eat into Gronk’s red zone success.

ANY WIDE RECEIVER (66-1+) No receiver has ever won the award, a nod to the importance of the quarterback position. The only way I see this changing is if a wide-out breaks the all time receptions record, via a turnover prone quarterback.

Take a flier on Antonio Brown (66-1) and Julio Jones(100-1) if you can’t help yourself, both threatened Marvin Harrison’s 143 catch season, with 136 each last year.

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Betting MLB Futures – 2016 Championship Odds & Picks

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As the long journey toward the world series just begins, all teams in Major League Baseball turn their eyes forward with hopeful eyes at the crown. Will the Giants continue their even-year streak, and win a 4th? Will the pitching heavy Mets battle their way to the playoffs, then let their arms handcuff opposing hitters? Or will the long downtrodden Cubs finally make the push, and cement their place in history?

Like the Cy Young picks, it is tough to predict winners so early in a season. Talent is almost never the soul determinant of a winner. The Angels would have a handful of hardware if that were the case.  This type of predicting is again, at best shots in mild darkness.

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Pitching Staff

When I do weigh in on future world series winners, I try to do so in a semi-standardized way. The very first thing I weigh is a pitching staffs viability. Do they have a stable of guys who can maintain production through the course of 162 games. That begins with the starting 5. I need to see strength through 4 guys, and stability in the 5th for any team to look like a real contender.

On top of that, I really want to see a guy with tremendous “Stuff” at the top of the rotation. A guy with high pitch-ability is fantastic, and a must have. A guy with stuff and high pitch-ability can win even when his pitches aren’t hitting spots. A 98 mile per hour fastball on the hands is almost impossible to hit. Whether the fastball is followed by the perfect tilt, off speed pitch down, or not. Guys like that will win you games consistently in the playoffs.

Seeing a strong back end of a rotation is another must. A lights out setup guy and closer shorten games. When teams get into the playoffs, having to win 7 innings opposed to 9 is a huge value. I think that’s easy enough to see.

If a team has those two things, plus a good long relief guy I think they have play-0ff viability.

Don’t Bet On Teams That Strike Out

Offensively the biggest non starter for me is a team that strikes out a ton. As they are playing now, the Huston Astros will never win a world series. Give me a team like the Royals any day: high contact rates, high on base %, high wins rate. A strike out is as killer to an offense as a walk is to a defense. There is literally nothing a TEAM can do to defend a walk. It is very much the same for a “K”. Striking out does nothing for runners on base, nothing to the defense, nothing for the hitter on deck; crippling.

That is the primary thing I look for in an offense. If a team can score runs, they can win as long as they don’t strike out a ton. Someone may point to teams who have had success hitting the long ball and striking out a ton. I would point to the Mets and say “have fun stringing together multiple solo shots against that staff in a 7 game set”.

Team Defenses

Another overlooked factor is defense. But for this you need to look at the makeup of a team. Instead of taking the one factor “defense”, look at a teams fundamentals. How do they approach 2 strikes, runners in scoring position, base running, and decision making defensively. If they do those things well it would point  towards a winner for me.

So compounding all these factors, we may be able to get a clearer look at potential winners.

Look For Opportunities To Hedge In The Playoffs

Another factor that influences my betting in this area is hedging. I will take long-odds teams based on their ability to get into the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, you can hedge your bets by betting against them in each series, and come away with a very profitable situation.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14516801/mlb-latest-2016-world-series-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook

2016 World Series Odds
TEAM OPEN APRIL 25
Chicago Cubs 10-1 7-2
New York Mets 10-1 8
Kansas City Royals 14-1 10
Washington Nationals 10-1 10
San Francisco Giants 20-1 12
Los Angeles Dodgers 8-1 12
Texas Rangers 12-1 14
Cleveland Indians 20-1 14
Toronto Blue Jays 10-1 16
Boston Red Sox 18-1 18
Chicago White Sox 40-1 18
Houston Astros 14-1 20
St. Louis Cardinals 12-1 20
Baltimore Orioles 40-1 20
Detroit Tigers 20-1 30
New York Yankees 16-1 30
Seattle Mariners 30-1 30
Pittsburgh Pirates 12-1 35
Arizona Diamondbacks 60-1 40
Tampa Bay Rays 40-1 40
Los Angeles Angels 20-1 50
Oakland Athletics 60-1 80
Minnesota Twins 40-1 100
Miami Marlins 60-1 100
Colorado Rockies 150-1 200
San Diego Padres 60-1 300
Philadelphia Phillies 300-1 300
Cincinnati Reds 60-1 500
Milwaukee Brewers 60-1 500
Atlanta Braves 100-1 1000

The Front Runners

METS 8-1

For the billionth time….METS METS METS. If this team makes the playoffs they are running through every team they face that isn’t named the Giants or Cardinals. That pitching staff can absolutely demolish lineups (See 2015 Cubs). They only chance teams have against that stable of thoroughbreds is contact, men on base, and smart decision making on the base paths.  8-1 isn’t exactly a value bet, but this team has a very good chance at making the playoffs. Once they make it, they will make a deep run undoubtedly.

ROYALS 10-1

The back end of this pen makes games 6 innings. Same story as the previous 2 years. They make great contact offensively (see 2015 world series). They were good, they are good, they will be good. 10 to 1 is getting a little better, so I don’t hate putting money on a very good team that is expected to do well here.

GIANTS 12-1

If they pitch they will win. MadBum hasn’t looked like himself early, I have a ton of questions about Cueto, and the back end is terribly inconsistent. One thing I do know is that fundamentally this team can play ball. The have very good situational hitting, they play stellar defense, and they have the ability to run. Match that up with Bruce Bochy and a team full of veterans who have done it before and spell it wit me S.U.C.C.E.S.S.

Value Picks

CARDINALS 20-1

The Cardinals at 20 to 1 is a steal. That team has pitching. Wainwright, Wacha, Leake, Martinez, and Garcia. Two guys who can go out and dominate teams with high pitchability and stuff, a third in Martinez with the same caliber of stuff (just a tad bit less pitchability), and solid back end guys. The staff is there for me. Offensively, they are very savy with a lot of talent. 20 to 1 on a team wit this much experience is a very smart bet.

OAKLAND 80-1

I LOVE OAKLAND…to make the playoffs. At 80 to 1, you get them to the playoffs and start hedging your bet and you find yourself in a very profitable situation. There is just something about this organization that puts teams out there every so often that win despite everything else. They have a good young staff with decent young talent in the field. I promise you I’m betting Oakland personally this year, so if they tank I tank as well. Should tell you something about my conviction.

ARIZONA 40-1

They have to beat the Giants and Dodgers…a very tall order. With Grienke, they have an ace capable of beating anyone. Miller and Corbin make a great 2-3 punch, that matches or beats any the Dodgers and Giants have. For me the staff is there, if the bullpen performs. Offensively they are lead by a top 5 hitter in the league. Paul Goldschmit is the truth. Behind him  they are young and inexperienced. At 40 to 1 it is close for me. I hate that they have to beat 2 solid teams to get out of the division. Especially when the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs are all very talented in the central. They can do it however, and at for 40 to 1 they payoff is large enough to outweigh the risk.

DETROIT 30-1

I have been saying since they end of last year that the Tigers are not as bad as they seem. Verlander, Sanchez, Zimmerman at the front end of a solid staff. Cabrera, Kinsler, Martinez, and Upton should scare any staff not from New York named the Mets. I’m not sold on these guys, but at 30-1 they intrigue me. If they keep winning you are going to regret not getting in early.

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Betting the 2016 Cy Young Winner

 

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Bills are piling up, the wife is on your back about some new project around the house, or you just want to make some cash; this year’s CY odds are prime to be taken advantage of.

If you want to avoid my philosophy on MLB awards betting skip to the bottom. If you want to understand what comprises a value pick…read on.

My System

I always view betting on baseball awards as long term investments. Obviously, there is the long wait. If you get in on the action at the beginning of the year, you have a 162 games to wait for your payout. Your day to day gambling in relation to your awards betting is where the true commonality comes into play. You should approach your bet as a balancing act with your short term betting. If you are a game to game gambler, you know that a lot of factors come into play.

R vs L, L vs R, R vs R, L vs L, day vs night, dome vs open air, turf vs grass,  pitchability and stuff vs approach, previous match-ups, streaks, and trends. By the end of it all, you realize one truth. Despite your due diligence, averages are averages. As a gambler it can’t be predicted how they will work themselves out on paper.

I don’t believe that any game betting can be considered “safe” for that reason. If you are a believer of statistical representation however, you can put in the work and come away with a statistically sound bet. Let’s say that you like to take the statistically safe over and unders on any given game. Doing this allows you to place a bet at the beginning of the year that can really payout by hitting the value picks.

Awards betting and gambling on day to day results are weighed by different factors. If I’m betting the Giants to beat an over today against the Padres I have a bunch of hard numbers to look into. If I am betting today on a CY award winner, it’s more of a feel thing. I am looking into defenses, divisional strength, the size of ballparks, and the way a guys stuff has looked in Spring…sure. At the end of the day however, the bets shrouded in uncertainty.  I am going to try and filter through some of that and give you my best “Value Picks” for this year’s AL and NL CY.

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American League

From oddsshark.com

  • Chris Sale +250
  • David Price +300
  • Corey Kluber +350
  • Dallas Keuchel +600
  • Felix Hernandez +600
  • Carlos Carrasco +800
  • Chris Archer +1200
  • Sonny Gray +1600
  • Cole Hamels +2000
  • Garrett Richards +2000
  • Danny Salazar +2500
  • Marcus Stroman +3300
  • Justin Verlander +3300
  • Masahiro Tanaka +5000
  • Yordano Ventura +5000
  • Taijuan Walker +5000
  • Carlos Rodon +5000
  • Michael Pineda +5000
  • Jordan Zimmermann +5000
  • Collin McHugh +6600
  • Jose Quintana +8000
  • Jake Odorizzi +8000
  • Ian Kennedy +10000
  • Luis Severino +10000
  • Rick Porcello +20000

I hate picks 1-6.

Sale- Sale is the truth. He is the perfect combination of stuff, pitchability, and competitiveness. His problem from a betting standpoint is similar to Kershaw. The value just isn’t there for me. 100 bucks to win 250 when you have some names in this list who have near as good of a chance to take the award home with much larger payouts.

Price- Boston is an uncertainty right now. Their defense is spotty, and their offense is a complete question mark in a division with a TON of hitting. Price has an uphill battle, and at his current valuation…no go.

Kluber- Hate his team’s chances in the same division as the Royals and Whitesox. If the Whitesox win that division and the race is between Kluber and Sale…Sale wins. Kluber at +350 is awful for that reason alone.

Keuchel- Houston scores so inconsistently, while striking out a bunch. When Matt Cain first came up the Giants were a similar type of team. While their talent wasn’t that of Houston’s now, the way they scored runs was. I see Keuchel playing for a bottom dweller team standings wise this season, with a low wins record. Stay away at +600…Bite at +1000.

King Felix- I guess I should modify the “Hate” thing a little here. I don’t hate this bet. I just don’t love it. The reason I am staying away comes from a bet I do love over in Oakland.

Carrasco- See Kluber

Value Bets

Sonny Gray- The A’s are poised this year to pull off one of their runs nobody sees coming. Gray will lead that charge from a pitching standpoint. At +1600 you have got to be joking. If the A’s win that division Sonny Gray has a stellar year. A stellar year puts him in a strong place for the award. Couple in his stuff, all the room in The Coliseum, and my dislike for many of the awards front runners…BET

Jordan Zimmerman- He has the previously stated “Kluber” reasons going against him. But at +5000 you have to take a look. He strikes people out, he keeps runners out of scoring position, and I don’t know if Detroit is as bad as the look right now.

Garret Richards- I am a sucker year in year out for the Angels. So far they are making me out to be a sucker again. But that team has TALENT. If the A’s don’t do it, they might. Garret Richards has strikeout stuff and figures to contribute mightily to a playoff push. So at +2000 I am taking a risk.

National League

  • Clayton Kershaw +175
  • Jake Arrieta +700
  • Madison Bumgarner +1000
  • Max Scherzer +1000
  • Matt Harvey +1000
  • Jose Fernandez +1200
  • Jacob deGrom +1400
  • Stephen Strasburg +1400
  • Zack Greinke +2000
  • Johhny Cueto +2000
  • Gerrit Cole +2000
  • Noah Syndergaard +2000
  • Adam Wainwright +2000
  • Jon Lester +2500
  • Carlos Martinez +3300
  • Tyson Ross +5000
  • Francisco Liriano +5000
  • James Shields +5000
  • Michael Wacha +5000
  • Jeff Samardzija +5000
  • Steven Matz +6600
  • Shelby Miller +8000
  • John Lackey +10000
  • Gio Gonzalez +10000
  • Scott Kazmir +10000

Don’t Do It

Clayton Kershaw- Unless you have 5 grand to throw at him the worth just isn’t there.

Johnny Cueto- High hits per 9 in a park with a ton of real estate. Hate him on the Giants, hate him as a pick. Bum or Cain win the award if they win the division.

Matt Harvey- Mat Harvey could certainly win this award. So could DeGrom, or Syndegaard. From a value standpoint, if I’m choosing a Mets ace, I’m choosing Syndegaard. The Mets may be there at the end of the year based on their pitching. Each guy is just as likely as the next to win it. Take the value or don’t take any of it.

Value Bets

Max Scherzer- Former Cy, stud Ace, great team. At +1000 you can’t not take this bet. The Nationals are going to win that division. The Mets may leak into the playoffs behind their arms…or they may not. The Nationals will 100% be in the discussion at the end of the year. Max Scherzer will have the minimum statistical accomplishments to be in the CY discussion. Bet.

Arrietta/Cole/Wainwright- These three guys, on these three teams, are monsters. It’s funny that the guy with the second lowest odds can be considered value…but that’s what Clayton Kershaw does to the league. All three of these guys will have a ton of wins, a ton of K’s, and a great ERA. At +700, +2000, +2000, all three can be considered good value selections.

The values on these picks allow for a pretty good pay day at the end of the year. If you have the green , play my picks for the best bang for the buck.

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2016 NBA Season Future Bets

130111115348-chris-paul-flex-011113.1200x672NBA season is here and Sportsbook.ag is currently offering some nice value in their prop bets. Here are some of the value bets I like.

MVP

Chris Paul (+3000) – This line has jumped from +2000 and I am still all over it. LA is battle tested and out for revenge as their rival Golden State won the title last year, avoiding the Clippers and Spurs on their path. I expect Paul to have a sensational regular season and lead his team to the top of the Western Conference.

Points Per Game Leader

Anthony Davis (+650) – Davis can shoot from everywhere and hit his foul shots, a true rarity for a big man. Another year of experience will gain him more respect from the referees, leading to more trips to the foul line. Unlimited freedom in an offense that runs through him, coupled with the advantage of not sharing shots with another superstar, will lead to a career year in scoring average.

Defensive Player of the Year

Serge Ibaka (+3000) – “The way he handles himself, the class that he exudes, I think he’s the best defensive player in the league.” Greg Popovich. High praise from one of the best coaches of all time. Ibaka, when available dominates the game with blocks and rebounding. This line is very high and a reflection of his past injury issues. Healthy and motivated I expect Ibaka to approach 11 rebounds and 4 blocks per game.

Rebounding Leader

DeMarcus Cousins (+1500) – Cousins is 25 years old and coming off of a career year with averages of 24 ppg and 12.7 rebounds. The Kings are revamped and should find themselves in a lot of shootouts as their defense is towards the bottom of the league. This trio of Rondo/McClemore/Gay are going to miss a ton of shots and Cousins will be playing the most minutes of his career. Taking these things into consideration, 15-1 seems like great value to unseat DeAndre Jordan(+150) who paced the league with 15 rpg last year.

Assists Leader

Rajon Rondo (+600) – Rondo hates shooting the ball, and teams consistently dare him to shoot from the foul line out. He routinely passes up scoring chances to feed teammates, not always best for team success, but great for this prop bet. Rondo has wore out his welcome by his attitude on his previous teams and now has Cousins to compete with as team hot-head. I expect Coach George Karl to get these two to buy-in to his system, as he has the history of taking Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp to the Finals. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E340bfjCSQg .

NBA Finals Possible Matchups

Cavs/Clippers +900 – My favorite match up personally. Cleveland is a virtual lock with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving back and the Clippers are my pick to win it all this year.

Cavs/Rockets +1500 – Ty Lawson could be the perfect point guard to get the Rockets over the top. He plays fast, can shoot the three, and is a pass first guard.

Bulls/Thunder +4000 – Chicago seems like the only team that could challenge Lebron’s path to another finals. I don’t like the fact that both of these teams have new coaches but their star power is very tempting to me at these odds.

Kam Chancellor

Updated Super Bowl Value Picks – 2015 NFL Season

Kam Chancellor

As the halfway point approaches, there are a couple good value bets to consider for Super Bowl.

https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/2016-nfl-futures-2016-super-bowl-50.sbk

Seattle 15-1

They are 3-4 but hot. Lynch has returned at 100%, Sherman and the defense are shutting people down and Wilson commands the team with confidence. They have an unreal home field advantage and their is still plenty of time for them to come back and win the division outright.

Pittsburgh 15-1

I love Pitt because of how they have responded without Big Ben. They play with the belief they can win any game and I think that stems from their Coach Mike Tomlin. It is extremely important for pro athletes to respect the Coach, which results in giving their best performance.

Armed with three quarterbacks that can be called upon for a win, the top wide receiver, and the top running back in the game, Pitt @ 15-1 is looking great.

Denver 15-1

Top defense, Peyton Manning, and a stranglehold on their division makes this bet hard to pass up. They should be home in the playoffs and despite his obvious lack of arm strength Peyton is smart enough to beat teams with a sound game plan alone. That being said their running game is tough to watch and I may be ignoring the eye test and betting with my heart here.

Cowboys 50-1

The Cowboys (2-3) are 1/2 game out for best record in their division and currently hold the tie-breaker with a 2-0 division record. Dez Bryant is back and I think they have to go at least 2-2 over the next 4 games until Romo returns (@Giants, Seattle, Philly, @Tampa).

When Dez/Romo are healthy this team can win in Seattle and push Green Bay to the brink. The playoffs are certainly within reach and the league’s top offensive line should keep Matt Cassel upright until Romo returns. Brandon Weeden could not find his receivers and Cassel comes with the experience of running Bill Belichek’s team, he will be ready.

Chargers 150-1

Rivers is having an MVP year and the Chargers (2-4) can keep pace with any team. Melvin Gordon has been disappointing so far and they will need a legitimate running threat if they hope to win on the road in the playoffs.

It appears like the Chargers are competing with the Jets and Steelers for the wild card. They lost to Pitt, GB, Cinci, and Minn. Three of these teams will be playoff bound and the schedule is much more favorable for Rivers in the second half of the season.

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16-0 Season Odds – Bet On Undefeated Seasons

tom-brady-patriotsjpg-632a823f54448814There are 5 undefeated teams in the NFL going into Week 6. Here are the odds of each going undefeated, as well as going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl.

Patriots
25/1 to go 16-0.
75/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Packers
30/1 to go 16-0.
90/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Broncos
100/1 to go 16-0.
325/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Bengals
175/1 to go 16-0.
500/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Panthers
500/1 to go 16-0.
1000/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

*Odds from PaddyPower.com

big_Kevin_Durant

NBA MVP Preview – Early Picks

Kevin Durant +650

big_Kevin_DurantDurant and Russell Westbrook form the best duo in the NBA. I think the Thunder will win it all this year and I give Durant the edge for MVP over his teammate because of his superior shooting percentages.

KD is also a threat to lead the league in scoring which always plays favorably for the award.


Chris Paul +2200

chris-paulThe Clippers have improved adding veterans Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, and Lance Stephenson for much needed depth. The Clippers have a top 5 coach in Doc Rivers, a superstar in Blake Griffin and the ability to win around 55 games.

Paul is always in the top 5 in assists and steals and will be in the top 3 in MVP voting if the Clippers finish in the top 2 in the west.


Kawhi Leonard +5000

hi-res-d20ebd48582c03ca381c67b66d2252cb_crop_exactThe Spurs added LaMarcus Aldridge and David West to somehow become even more veteran. I love this team and view them as the favorite to win it all. Leonard will be playing the most minutes of his career and should lead the league in steals.

Although he may never approach 25ppg, his value on the defensive end coupled with career highs across the board will be hard to ignore if the Spurs run away with the Western Conference.


Kobe Bryant +17500

24f22a9175-1 is an absolute joke. Kobe will be healthy and has no choice but to refine his game to be more complete.

A climb in rebounds, assists and getting the Lakers back to the playoffs could be enough to win the award alone.

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Super Bowl Value Picks

Week 4 is upon us in the NFL, and it is time to discuss some value plays that the bookmakers are offering. Here are a few decent shots at huge odds that I will be taking.


Colts- 25/1

NFL: AFC Wildcard Playoff-Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis ColtsThe Colts are underachieving and the offensive line is going to have to play much better to become a legitimate threat. Gore is going to have to get more touches in order to open things up for their stifled receivers. Despite the slow start they should be able to win the division and lock in a playoff spot.

Remember the other 3 quarterbacks in their division are Blake Bortles (Jax), Ryan Mallet (Hou), and rookie Marcus Mariota (Tenn). 25-1 is too good of a price for an Andrew Luck led team.


Pittsburgh – 33/1

mike-tomlin-2013Vick should be able to keep this team above .500 while Big Ben recovers from his injury. The injury opens the door for the Bengals to win the division, but I am not confident Andy Dalton will separate them enough. The Steelers boast an underrated defense, and arguably the top two players at their positions in LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown.

Well coached, veteran teams with a running game are the traits needed to win on the road in the playoffs. 33-1 for a perennial contender with top flight players at the core positions seems to good to pass up.


Ravens – 75/1

Joe FlaccoYes, I know they are 0-3 and could be 0-4 after week 4, but I like to bet on established franchises. The Ravens always have a solid defense and their remaining schedule is pretty easy.

Joe Flacco has won it before and is still becoming comfortable with new Offensive Coordinator Marc Trestman. I think this division is far from decided and Baltimore will be vying for a wildcard spot at seasons end.

Atlanta Falcons v New Orleans Saints

NFL 2015 Futures – Saints Win Total

The New Orleans Saints win total opened at 9, and I like the under.  Here’s why.

Atlanta Falcons v New Orleans SaintsFirst off, 9 seems a little high to me considering they weren’t too hot last year, they have a weak defense, and they lost Jimmy Graham.

After looking at the schedule I estimate they will have the following losses:

@ Cardinals, @Panthers, Cowboys, @Eagles, @Colts, Giants, @Texans, Panthers, Lions, and @Falcons.

If somehow this was exactly correct, that would leave them with a 6-10 record at best.  So even if they win 2 of the games above, the under of 9 is still a win.  If they win 3 it’s a push.  I believe they will go 8-8 at very best.

On top of all of this, the Saints are all around usually a public favorite, and I always like to fade the public if possible.

All things considered, the under of the Saints win total at 9 is one of my favorite current futures going into the season.  Good luck.