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Week 4 NFL Picks

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8-0 on the season thus far. 4-0 last week and came oh-so-close to a DFS victory in the $100k. Here are my picks for week 4.

Broncos @ Bucs

Bucs +3
This line would seem to make more sense at Broncos -6, not 3. The public is all over Denver 92% early in the week. I believe Winston plays well vs this tough defense, Siemian has a tough one, and Bucs win it at the end.

Colts @ Jags

Jags +2.5
I feel like this line has been Jags +2 every year since the Peyton Manning days in Indy. And somehow the Colts always win by 1. Vegas knows what they’re doing as usual, Jags cover at home, and the public falls flat.

Rams @ Cardinals

Cardinals -9
I like the Cardinals to bounce back after a tough away loss and embarrass the Rams in Arizona. The low total and large spread signifies a strong defensive performance by Arizona in a convincing win. Let’s call it 27-10.

Cowboys @ 49ers

49ers +3
Dallas playing well and 49ers look like the pits. I have a feeling we see the 49ers from week 1 vs the Rams this week though, and their defense hands it to Dallas and Prescott.

Honorable Mentions
Baltimore -3.5
Bears +3

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 4

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Big sweat in week 3 while I was 1st place in the $4 $100k on Draftkings until 5 minutes left in the afternoon games when I managed to slip to 18th. I also went 4-0 on my sports picks which made for a very profitable Sunday.

Here are a few of my core DraftKings players for NFL week 4 daily fantasy.

Quarterbacks

B. Bortles – $6,400
Home vs the Colts in what should be a high scoring game. Bortles has 40, 40, and 50 attempts in his first 3 games, and I look for him to dial it in this week to get the yardage and TDs that should follow that attempt volume.

P. Rivers – $6,900
This will likely be a popular pick but he’s got the matchup of the year for him home vs the Saints, who just let up 45 points to Atlanta, and make every offense they play look like the ’07 Patriots.

K. Cousins – $6,500
Home vs the Browns who have a very weak pass defense, Cousins is playing well. He is at a good price right now, down from $7,400 where he started the season. He is just starting to get in rhythm and has a ton of attempts per game.

J. Flacco – $5,900
He’s vs the Raiders, need we say more? Okay, also at a $1,000 price break right now down from $6,900.

Running Backs

M. Gordon – $6,300
Like Rivers, Gordon gets the benefit of playing vs the god awful Saints defense at home this week. Now the sole back since Woodhead’s season ending injury, he is seeing quite a few receptions as well. I faded him so far this year and all last season, but not in this spot.

L. Blount – $5,000
What a season Blount has had so far. One more game until Brady is back and at home vs division rival Buffalo, I can’t imagine Blount not getting another 25+ carries. Pats o-line is playing lights out, and Blount is ridiculously cheap for his production right now.

D. Murray – $6,800
Not crazy about his new high price, or that he is away vs a decent defense. However he’s getting 6 receptions and 15+ carries a game, and is a goal line threat. Titans are using him right now, and while he’s hot, so will I. Tough matchup, away, and OPRK will have him overlooked this week.

J. Forsett – $3,800
Man do I hate this guy. But I just have to gamble on him this week because he is seeing a lot of receptions, and he’s got the matchup home vs Oakland. Not to mention he’s super cheap and will be faded more than the last few weeks due to his poor start to the season.

Wide Receivers

A. Hurns – $4,800
High total in a should-be shootout. I look at Jags to show up big in the pass game and win. I love Hurns’ value at this price, considering Allen Robinson is $8,000 and only gets a few more targets.

TY Hilton – $7,000
Same story here with the total and shootout. Hilton down from $7,500, even after a big game and has gotten 11, 11, and 12 targets.

J. Landry – $6,900
This game may be high scoring, but what will almost definitely happen is Landry getting his average of 12 targets. One of the most popular plays out there right now every week, but for a good reason.

Tight Ends

C. Fleener – $3,200
This f***ing guy. He let me down the first 2 weeks, but I’m going back to him. Way too good of a price and the ball goes his way a lot, he just needs to catch it. Coming off a solid game in Atlanta, this value is just too high to pass up.

G. Olsen – $6,000
So hard to pick the right TE in dfs, never bad to play this guy with the 9-10 targets he gets on the high powered Carolina offense.

Defense

Buccaneers – $2,600
Value play. Home vs Denver, and likely will not be owned hardly at all. The vegas line and total here says a lot. I think the Bucs win and Siemian has a rough one.

I also like Redskins, Cardinals, and NYJ defenses.

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Week 3 NFL Picks

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4-0 on the season thus far. 2-0 last week with Vikings and Rams. Here are my picks for week 3.

Cardinals @ Bills

Bills +4
The public is over 80% on the high flying Cardinals, but they are flying cross-country to play a tough Bills defense. The Bills will play Arizona close; I see them winning this one outright a lot here as the gambly Ryan brothers could easily put together a scheme that gets to Palmer all game.

Steelers @ Eagles

Eagles +3.5
A short trip for Pitt, but a tough stadium to play in vs a confident Eagles team coming home after a big win in Chicago. This game should stay close until the very end, and Pitt wins by a point.

Chargers @ Colts

Colts -3
It’s rare that I follow the public, but this week the public is on the Colts 65% and so am I. The Colts don’t look great and San Diego looks like world beaters. Bettors have short memories though, and I think both teams snap back to their true value this game and Colts win convincingly.

Jets @ Chiefs

Chiefs -3
Are we forgetting how good Andy Reid and the Chiefs are so quickly? KC shows up huge in arrowhead and brings Fitzpatrick and the Jets back down to earth.

Honorable Mentions
Panthers/Vikings over 43
Packers -7
49ers/Seahawks under 40.5

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 3

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Here are a few of my core DraftKings players for NFL week 3 daily fantasy.

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson – $7,100
Should be off the radar for most people this week after a pretty bad first 2 weeks. I think he finally shows up though at home vs a poor SF team. Seattle defense should give Wilson great field position throughout the game. I think Seattle kills here 30-7 and Wilson has a game. I wouldn’t worry about stacking him because he can spread the ball out, Baldwin is questionable, and he can run them in as well. I may stack him in a few lineups with Jimmy Graham.

E. Manning – $7,000
I like the Giants offense to show up this week after after a subpar first two weeks, at home vs a weak Washington pass defense. Eli and Odell finally go off big.

M. Stafford – $6,800
Playing at Green Bay will be tough, but this game has the makings of a shootout. Stafford brings it vs the 16th ranked pass defense of GB. Should be overlooked and low owned as well.

M. Mariota – $5,900
I liked this guy as a sneak play last week and it did not really pan out. This week more people will be drafting him as he’s against Oakland who has a terrible pass defense. I’m going to go with him one more week and stack him with Walker.

Running Backs

E. Elliott – $6,900
Down from $7,400, Elliott is getting 25+ touches a game, and will no doubt break out sometime this year. This is a very good chance for him to do so. At home vs the Bears, Elliott continues his trend of at least 1 TD per game, but this time has big time yardage to add.

D. Murray – $6,300
Home vs Oakland should be a good spot to get Murray back to his old self. Look for him to get more than his usual 15 rush attempts and you can always count on him for receptions, 7 targets a game so far.

F. Gore – $5,000
I can’t believe it’s come to this, but Im going with Frank Gore this week. Great matchup at home, and is still the #1 guy. Has a nose for the end zone and big plays, the Chargers are the perfect defense to give Gore one more big game. Indy will likely chew up clock if they get up a little as well, to keep a hot Rivers off the field.

TJ Yeldon – $5,600
Hard to believe but after 2 weeks of doing next to nothing, Yeldon’s price has gone up from $4,100 to $5,600. Someone knows something, and since it’s not me I’m going to gamble on it.

J. Ajayi – $4,000
Sneak play. I’m a Miami fan and dislike this guy for the most part, but he’s a good gamble this week. Arian Foster is banged up and will likely not play, and Miami is 9 point favorites at home vs the Browns. He finally gets his chance this week while he’s cheap and overlooked.

Wide Receivers

O. Beckham – $9,100
Price has gone down $400, and as I said earlier I think the Giants could blow up this week.

J. Nelson – $7,400
Green Bay offense bounces back this week at home vs a weak Detroit defense in what could be a shootout. I lean Nelson over Cobb because they are the same price but Nelson is getting 2-3 more targets a game, and is a slightly more big play threat.

S. Watkins – $6,100
Home vs Arizona who is 25th vs WR, I think this could be a high scoring game and Watkins should be one of the main beneficiaries.

D. Jackson – $5,900
Giants defense has looked good this year in the first two games, but I don’t think they’re as great as they seem just yet. This game is going to get up there, and Jackson should get his points whether ahead or behind.

M. Wallace – $5,000
I liked him the first 2 weeks at $4,700, and I like him now.

Tight Ends

D. Walker – $5,000
Home vs Oakland, this guy should be a very popular play, but TE is very thin. I think you have to play this guy.

J. Graham – $3,000
A great sneak play, and a great time for this guy to remind us that he’s still alive, home vs the SF 49ers. I predict a big game for him and Wilson.

Defense

Seattle – $4,100
Sometimes you just gotta pay the price and pick the chalk play. I will be doing that with team defenses quite a bit as it does seem to work for that position. Seattle home vs 49ers and Gabbert.

Dolphins – $3,000
9 point favorites at home vs the Browns. A big chance for Miami’s high paid defense shows up for some defensive TDs.

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Week 2 NFL Picks

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2-0 in week 1 betting the Jets and SF. Here are my picks for week 2 NFL 2016. Good luck!

Packers @ Vikings

Vikings +2.5
If this line is at 3 anywhere I would snap it up. Tough betting the +2.5 but this line should be way higher. Public over 80% on the super favorite GB Packers, but look for Minnesota to give GB hell as always and Rodgers to struggle.

Seahawks @ Rams

Rams +6.5
The Rams looked terrible week 1 but played a very tough away game in SF. Now the Seahawks who also struggled at home vs a bad Miami team will be away vs a very tough defense and a hobbled Russell Wilson. This game stays close.

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 2

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Here are a few of my core DraftKings players for NFL week 2 daily fantasy.

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer – $6,900
My favorite play at QB this week, Palmer has a low price and a great matchup, and people aren’t too high on him at the moment so he will likely be lower drafted than the top tier guys this week, with just as much upside if not more. Great matchup at home vs Bucs defense who are poor vs QB.

D. Carr – $7,200
Could be another shoot em up in Oakland, with Atlanta traveling across country. With a 7th OPRK, as well as Brees playing Eli, Carr will be very undervalued this week.

M. Mariotta – $6,000
Somewhat of a sneak/value play this week, he plays at Detroit who looks like they may be getting in high scoring shootouts pretty often this year. Mariotta has big game potential and the right matchup on the road.

D. Brees – $8,200 & Eli Manning – $7,800
Both of these guys are obviously great picks this week, as its a huge total, two great QBs, and two horrible pass defenses. However they are expensive and will be very popular and high owned.

Running Backs

D. Johnson – $7,600
The most expensive play this week for RB, but for good reason. Home vs the Bucs and looking very strong.

CJ Anderson – $6,800
Home vs the Colts, we should see a big game out of him as Siemian (who looks good) will look to keep it on the ground and out of Luck’s hands. Colts defense is by no means great, but are only 20th OPRK so people might forget about Anderson this week.

L. Murray – $5,700
This guy looks great and if he keeps improving and Oakland turns into the real deal, you wont see him below 7k. Buy him low right now with a good matchup at home vs the Falcons.

Wide Receivers

O. Beckham – $9,500
If you want to spend this week on WR, spend here. These two teams might score 100 points this week.

AJ Green – $8,900
A first tier wideout with huge potential and a good matchup. With the other matchups out there, he will be slightly over looked in a game where he could be forced to go off vs a high powered Steelers offense.

M. Crabtree – $6,100
Home vs Atlanta, Crabtree is vs the #1 OPRK this week, which will no doubt leave him faded and forgotten about this week. But WR2 OPRK can be misleading, and the Raiders look very good and will play a relatively weak Atlanta defense traveling a veyy long way.

E. Sanders – $6,000
Siemian looked good, and he seemed to excel in the over the middle short routes as well as broken plays. These are both areas that Sanders excels in as well. We’ll see if he and Thomas pan out this year with their new QB, but I will gamble on him now while most people are looking elsewhere.

M. Wallace – $4,700
I like Wallace this year and he came through for me in week 1. I think as the season progresses he and Flacco could hit it off. I’ll gamble on him now with a great matchup (30th OPRK at the Browns).

Tight Ends

C. Fleener – $3,900
This was a big fail for me last week, but I’m not giving up on him. Not when Brees spreads the ball out as much as he does. Not when he’s one of the cheapest TE’s on the board this week. And certainly not with the matchup vs the pass defense/terrible TE defense.

Defense

Redskins – $2,800
Redskins are home vs the Cowboys who look like they could be in for a long, awful season. Skins DEF is middle of the pack price wise, so a good deal and also might be undervalued, though probably not by much.

Panthers – $3,900
This is the obvious play of the week here, with Carolina looking to bounce back and humiliate a rickety SF team traveling across country on a short week. This will be a very popular play this week.

Tony Romo 2016 MVP Betsome

2016 NFL MVP Future Bets

Tony Romo 2016 MVP Betsome
Here is how I would invest $100 for this year’s MVP award. There are some nice value spots in quarterbacks on playoff teams. I typically fade the favorite when betting futures and try to find the best player on teams destined for regular season success.

ANDREW LUCK (12-1) $30 to win $360

Luck will be bouncing back from an injury riddled 2015 season in which he played 7 games and never got into a rhythm. In 2014 Luck lit up the league with 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Most of that year Luck was the front-runner for the award, before Aaron Rodgers surpassed him with less mistakes and more wins.

At age 26, he is entering his prime and should win multiple MVP awards, 12-1 seems like a great price to pounce on.

ELI MANNING (25-1) $20 to win $500

The Giants addressed their defensive issues this offseason which should lead to more field time for Eli. Ben McAdoo moves from offensive coordinator to head coach, so you can expect Manning’s passing numbers to be very similar to the 600+ pass attempts of his past two seasons.

Manning has yet to win the award at age 35 but has enjoyed his greatest statistical seasons the past two years. Eli has played all 16 games every year besides his rookie season, an enormous model of consistency. The only downfall of this bet is his proclivity for extremely high interception totals.

TONY ROMO (25-1) $20 to win $500

The Cowboys are all around healthy and have added a 3-down back in the draft with Ezekiel Elliot. They have the top offensive line in the league, boasting 3 all-pros to protect Romo. This division is up for grabs and Romo will have less pressure to force things with Elliot in tow.

The Cowboys thinnest position is by far wide receiver, with Terrence Williams and Cole Beasley behind Dez Bryant on the depth chart. It will be interesting to see if Witten and Elliot can become consistent enough to help alleviate Bryant’s defensive attention. In 2014 the Cowboys narrowly lost to the Packers (on an overturned Dez catch) missing out on an NFC championship appearance. Winning the NFC East and securing a top playoff seed can be enough to win Romo the award.

ADRIAN PETERSON (33-1) $25 to win $825

The Vikings are quietly very good after producing an 11-5 season. They have a top defense and stifle opponents offensive momentum by feeding Peterson a heavy workload. Locked in for 300+ carries, Peterson can easily produce 1500+ rushing yards and 12+ touchdowns.

This is great value at 33-1 for an all-time great that is by no means past his prime and guaranteed a heavy workload.

DEREK CARR (50-1) $5 to win $250

The Raiders are the Cinderella team for the 2016 season. A great mix of savvy veterans and elite young stars. They have three top players in QB Derek Carr, WR Amari Cooper, and LB Khalil Mack. Carr produced a phenomenal sophomore campaign with 32 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. He is a gutsy player who has drawn comparisons to Brett Favre for his style of play.

I believe the AFC is up for grabs with Tom Brady’s 4 game suspension, and 50-1 for a proven quarterback on a dangerous team seems like a nice longshot.

DON’T FALL FOR

J.J. WATT (25-1) The new face of the NFL will have to crush the all-time sack record AND make the Texans relevant to win the award, 25-1 is purely based on his popularity.

ROB GRONKOWSKI (66-1) Brady’s 4 game absence may equate to more targets for Gronk, but the signing of proven free agent TE Martellus Bennett could eat into Gronk’s red zone success.

ANY WIDE RECEIVER (66-1+) No receiver has ever won the award, a nod to the importance of the quarterback position. The only way I see this changing is if a wide-out breaks the all time receptions record, via a turnover prone quarterback.

Take a flier on Antonio Brown (66-1) and Julio Jones(100-1) if you can’t help yourself, both threatened Marvin Harrison’s 143 catch season, with 136 each last year.

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NFL DFS – Playoffs – Conference Championship

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Here are a few plays I’ll be making this week for NFL DFS.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady – $7,400
I like Patriots players for the most part this week, and I’m not convinced on Peyton or Palmer. Brady rarely dissapoints, and always has the potential to rack up TDs.

Running Backs

D. Johnson – $6,500
Everyone will have him, but you’ll need to have to, at least in a decent amount of lineups. By far the best RB option available.

S. Jackson – $3,000
Patriots are known to have these journeymen RBs go off, and Steven Jackson playing his fourth game for NE may be primed to be that journeyman this week. Looks like he’s getting the carries for them, and he will likely be a popular play as well but a good one.

Wide Receivers

J. Edelman – $7,500
Tough to gauge the WR position this week, but I like Edelman due to his consistent high floor value, coupled with the potential of putting up a monster.

D. Funchess – $3,200
Cheap gamble at WR, but will have the weakest defender on him. A good spot if you’re looking to differentiate and he did put up 27 fantasy points 2 weeks ago.

J. Nelson – $2,000
A major gamble, but with Brown’s injury status and the likelihood of Panthers trying to take Fitzgerald away, Nelson may be asked to step up. He produced earlier in the season in a similar situation, even going for close to 30 fantasy points in one of them.

Tight Ends

G. Olson – $7,100
It’s tough to choose between Gronk and Olsen but I’m going to lean toward Olsen as he’s cheaper, playing a weaker D, he’ll likely be slightly less owned, and the Pats have more weapons to spread it out to.

Defenses

Carolina – $3,500
I think Palmer and Peyton are the two likely QBs to make the mistakes out of the four, so I lean toward Pats and Carolina’s defense. I give Carolina the edge because of Palmer’s history.

Divisional Playoffs - Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos

NFL Playoff Picks – Conference Championship Bets

Divisional Playoffs - Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos

Patriots @ Broncos

Broncos +3
I hate betting against Brady, Bellichek, and the Pats. But I think that NE’s last regular season loss vs Miami, which decided who would have home field in this week’s matchup, is going to come back to haunt them.

Denver has the best defense in the league, and aside from last week, the Pats have been struggling against significant pass rushes when away. I see Denver winning this game but it should be close either way, which is why I like taking the points. Public heavy on Pats as well, which is always nice to go against.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Lineups – Playoffs Round 2

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Here are a few of my daily fantasy picks for this week in the NFL playoffs.

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning – $6,000
No one in the league could’ve benefited from the last 6 weeks off more than Peyton and the Broncos. He also happens to have the best matchup of the weekend as well vs Pitt who tends to like to play shootouts, and the other quarterbacks have pretty tough matchups.

Carson Palmer – $6,500
It’s hard to believe he’s the 6th cheapest QBs, but I think he has the second best matchup of the weekend. He and Brady are huge beneficiaries of their extra week off rest and preparation wise.

Running Backs

D. Johnson – $6,000
Not a great matchup, but one of the better ones for the RB position this week. Has gone off for huge games, and is always good for 3-5 receptions or more.

F. Toussaint – $4,200
De’angelo Williams is still questionable, but if he misses this week then Toussaint will be a solid play as he should get a lot of touches, including receptions. Tough matchup, but decent gamble so long as Williams sits.

S. Jackson – $3,300
If you’re looking for a super cheap gamble, old legs Jackson might be your guy. James White is likely a safer play due to his receptions, but as long as the Pats keep it close or are ahead, Jackson could get 25+ carries.

Wide Receivers

A. Brown – $9,800
If he is cleared to play, you must have him as his numbers are near double every other WR stud available for this past season. Even if Landry Jones is throwing the ball, this guy is just much better than the rest.

D. Baldwin – $6,800
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are playing great lately, and Baldwin is having big games somewhat regularly. If Carolina defense shows up, Baldwin will likely be affected the least of Hawks’ offensive weapons. He may be even more dangerous if Carolina’s pass rush cause plays to break down, and Russell and Baldwin to connect for a few huge plays.

E. Sanders – $5,800
Has possibly the best matchup as a receiver of the week, and no doubt Peyton has used their first round bye to prepare better than his competition. Thomas could also be the play here, but with Peyton on the field these guys’ production are pretty comparable, and Sanders is a decent amount cheaper.

J. Jones – $4,600
He has been playing great and Rodgers showing a lot of trust in him as the season grows late. Jones has a bigger floor than Cobb, a similar ceiling, and is cheaper. One of the best cheap WR plays out there right now.

Tight Ends

Luke Wilson – $2,600
Looks like he’ll be cleared to play, and he should be Seattle’s number 1 tight end. Certainly a gamble but he’s super cheap, will likely be low-owned, and has big potential.