140121_SNUT_RichardSherman.jpg.CROP.promo-mediumlarge

NFL Playoff Picks – Round 2 Bets

140121_SNUT_RichardSherman.jpg.CROP.promo-mediumlarge

Seahawks @ Panthers

Seahawks +3
Here is where we find out if Carolina is the real deal, which it appears to me that they are. Seattle is clicking at the right time, and Russell Wilson is playing like the champion he is. But even with this being the case, if Carolina is the powerhouse that they appear to be, then they should be bigger favorites than by 3 points, plain and simple. The line is way too low, and the public is on Carolina 71% at the moment. Vegas clearly thinks Seattle has the edge here, which is why I think they’re the best play this weekend.

Make sure to line shop this one no matter which way you bet, and try to find that huge 1/2 point difference.

IMGP3769

Week 15 NFL Picks

IMGP3769

Cardinals @ Eagles

Eagles +4

Eagles playing well, even beating the Pats recently. The line a bit low, Zona traveling cross country in a tough stadium, and the public 76% on the favorite. Philadelphia controls this game from the start and wins outright.

 

Browns @ Seahawks

Over 43

Seahawks beginning to roll at the right time, and I don’t see them slowing down today. 35-13 final in this one.

 

Broncos @ Steelers

Broncos +7

This line opened slightly higher than I thought it would, but I still like Denver here as the best defense in the league getting a touchdown vs a slightly inconsistent and injury riddled Steelers team. I think Pitt stalls out much like they did vs the tough Bengals defense a bit earlier in the year.

 

IMGP37492

Week 14 NFL Picks – Sports Betting

IMGP37492

Patriots @ Texans

Texans +3.5

I hate this, I really do. But it has to be. This line isn’t too crazy but it is a little low, and the public is 82% on Pats. My system says bet on Houston here, and I think their defense gives Brady hell. If Gronk plays I may advise to stay away. If he doesn’t go, I think you just gotta close your eyes and bet Houston.

 

Falcons @ Panthers

Falcons +9

Public loves Carolina, but I think Atlanta makes a game of this one. Matt Ryan shows up big and gives Carolina another sweat.

 

Raiders @ Broncos

Broncos -6.5

Carr finally makes the big mistakes this week and Broncos trample the Raiders who look very good this year.

 

Cowboys @ Packers

Packers -6.5

I don’t love this bet as the public is 74% on GB, but I think this is the week Packers turn back into the Packers and win very convincingly is a spot where they should do just that. Dallas 0-8 without Romo this year.

 

Seahawks @ Ravens

Ravens +13

Cross country trip for a more human looking Seahawks than usual. Public very high on Seattle, but I think if Baltimore offense can avoid huge mistakes, then they keep this one within 10.

 

NFL: AUG 29 Preseason - Falcons at Dolphins

NFL DFS Week 14 – Daily Fantasy Lineups

NFL: AUG 29 Preseason - Falcons at Dolphins

Quarterbacks

D. Brees – $6,800
This game could be pretty high scoring, and Brees is one of those guys if you catch on the right week can win you tournaments. Great price for his floor and potential. I’d stack with Cooks or Watson and have a Snead-Free week 14. Reverse stack with Evans.

A. Dalton – $6,600
Pitt has a pretty bad pass defense and tend to play shootouts. Dalton looks very up to the challenge this year, and although I like Big Ben as well this week, Dalton has the edge due to numbers and more importantly matchup. Safely stack with AJ Green or get a little risky with Eifert, and reverse stack with Bryant or Brown.

E. Manning – $6,100
Great price for a gun slinger with a great matchup vs horrible Miami defense. I can’t see stacking him with anyone other than Odell. Landry a safe reverse stack, but Davonte Parker could be a nice sneak.

J. Winston – $5,500
Love this guy this week, as he’s cheap and plays the Saints in a probable shootout/high scoring affair. Stack with Evans all day and feel great about it.

R. Tannehill – $5,200
New O.C. could breathe some life into Miami, and it’s a great week to gamble on it as they play the leagues worst pass defense. Landry, Parker, or even Jordan Cameron are good stack options for this play.

Running Backs

T. Gurley – $6,800
Time to hop back on the Gurley train. He’s looked awful the last few weeks, but a good matchup at home, and the spread in this game indicates to me the Rams winning. If they win, it will likely have to be on the back of Gurley who is finally back down at a fair price.

D. Martin – $6,200
Playing the dismal Saints defense, what’s not to love. With three solid weeks in a row, Martin has proven to have a nice floor, and his matchup this week helps his ceiling tremendously.

L. McCoy – $6,100
I stay away from away RBs most of the time but I love him this week. Playing great and against a very weak defense. Bills could get up quick and ride McCoy until late in the game.

T. Rawls – $5,800
This guy remains at an amazing price even though he proves he’s one of the best fantasy RB’s every week with Lynch out.

L. Miller – $5,700
I like the whole Miami team at home vs the NYG this week. Miller looked okay last week and his dismal two weeks before that has helped him to move down to a much more reasonable price. Just in time for his best matchup of the year.

Wide Receivers

O. Beckham – $9,100
If you can fit him in, he’s worth the price ticket this week as he may light up Miami’s secondary.

A.J. Green – $7,900
Very consistent, huge ceiling, superb matchup. Make sure he is in at least a few lineups.

Mike Evans – $7,200
Playing that terrible Saints pass defense so you have to gamble on him. Vincent Jackson is also a decent gamble for a lot cheaper.

J. Landry – $6,300
Going to be playing a lot of Miami offense because of their matchup. Landry vs Odell should be a fun side-theme to this game, and I think given the defenses they both show up big.

T.Y. Hilton – $5,900
This guy is streaky so don’t load all your lineups with him, but he’s very cheap right now and the matchup is definitely there this week.

A. Hurns – $5,500
He’s slowed down a lot in terms of production the last month, but has a great matchup vs the Colts who are weak against the pass, but especially weak against the WR2. Hurns will have a chance to do big things this week.

D. Amendola – $5,200
Has taken over Edelman’s role, and looks like the clear WR1 in New England. Tough matchup in Houston but should get high amount of targets and receptions regardless.

D. Parker – $4,000
New offensive coordinator likes Parker and Cameron, so I expect them to get a few more targets in the closing weeks of the season. Great matchup vs that Giants pass defense as well.

Tight Ends

T. Eifert – $5,600
Pitt is bad against the pass, and bad against the TE position as well so the matchup is more than there for this monster.

A. Seferian-Jenkins – $2,700
Super cheap and great matchup vs Saints, but he will be a high drafted and popular pick this week.

J. Cameron – $2,500
Decent time to gamble on this guy, as new Miami OC likes him and amazing matchup. Cheap as it gets and should be low drafted so I’ll throw him in a few for sure. *Kroner’s play of the week – Stay out of Pittstown.

Defenses

Broncos – $3,400
Raiders are playing well but Broncos could make Carr look average or worse. Given Carr’s style Broncos could very easily get a pick six.

Chiefs – $3,200
Playing a struggling Chargers team in Arrowhead, which is one of the toughest places to play away. It could get ugly in Kansas City for Rivers.

Browns – $2,600
Playing in Cleveland vs SF who is the worst in the league in offense. Great price as well.

imrs

NFL DFS Week 13 – Daily Fantasy Lineups

imrs
Had nearly a big DFS week last Sunday, but missed on RB’s. Still had a nice profit. Here are a few of the core guys I’ll be looking at this week.

Quarterbacks

C. Newton – $7,400
Playing at the Saints who boast the 2nd worst pass defense in the league, and Cam playing like he can’t be stopped. Worth the tag this week, stack him with Olsen and reverse stack Brandon Cooks.

R. Fitzpatrick – $5,200
Playing with a ton of confidence at the moment, cheap, and against the Giants who are dead last in the league vs the pass. I’d lean toward stacking with Marshall here but Decker a fine play as well.

M. Hasselbeck – $5,300
Playing vs Pitt who is near the bottom of the league in pass defense, and have been playing shootouts almost all year. Super cheap, and has played great in Luck’s absence this year.

Running Backs

C. Ivory – $5,900
Playing away, but at terrible NYG defense. Good price for him with this sort of potential.

D. Martin – $5,900
Home vs Falcons in what could be a very high scoring game. Falcons also not strong vs run, and Martin has gone off a few times this season in similar spots.

L. Miller – $5,800
Miami likely will use the Ravens to bounce back from a few terrible games, as they used the Titans earlier this season. I expect Miller to get 30+ touches in this game and Ravens rush defense is poor.
L. McCoy – $5,700
Home RB vs weak team, although they have a decent defense. Still a beast and playing very well lately, I’ll be playing him in a few.

D. Williams – $5,600
Home vs Indy and playing very well. The whole Pitt team has been injured on and off all season, but this guy has remained healthy and very productive when played. Matchup is great here vs weak defense who is particularly weak vs the rush.

D. Johnson – $3,400
Injury play here, as David Johnson gets the start this week on a high powered offense, and if they get ahead could see close to 30 touches. Playing at St. Louis who is actually a good defense, but hasn’t been playing well vs the rush.

Wide Receivers

M. Evans – $7,300
This game has a high total, and Vincent Jackson is hobbled again. If this turns into a shooutout, expect Evans to get a lot of the points.

A. Jeffery – $6,900
Great matchup home vs SF, and Bears need this one. Cutler looks good, and Jeffery finally appears to be at full health.

E. Decker – $6,300
Decker plays vs the Giants who have the worst pass defense in the league, and Marshall is questionable at the moment. Love him for his price and matchup, and the fact that he should be on the field more than Marshall this week.

T. Hilton – $5,700
Hasselbeck is playing great, and they are playing Pitt who is playing shootouts. If these two themes persist, that should make Hilton a big play at the cheapest he’s been in 2 years.

B. Lafell – $4,800
He’s hurt me the last couple weeks, but Brady throwing the ball, lack of receivning targets in NE, and his price send me running back into his arms.

Tight Ends

S. Chandler – $2,500
This one will be a popular value play this week to those who research, but still may be the play of the week. He’s only $2,500, and with Gronk out, Pats WRs all hobbled or injured, and the Eagles weak pass defense, Chandler has the most potential for a $2,500 player in a long time. Almost forgot: Tom Brady.

G. Olsen – $6,400
Only one of Cam’s reliable targets, and is playing 2nd to last pass defense in league. Great week to pay for him.

D. Walker – $5,700
Continues to play great and consistent, and now plays Jags who are weak vs the pass and particularly weak vs the TE position.

T. Kelce – $4,700
Has had a good year, his QB is playing well at the moment, and they play Oakland who is near last in the league in defending against the tight end. Good price, I’ll be playing him with confidence.

Team Defense

Patriots – $3,400
Steelers – $2,800
Bears – $2,600

bluetop

Week 13 NFL Picks

bluetop

2-1 last Sunday, and BetSome NFL Pick of the Week on a 6-1 streak.

Cardinals @ Rams

Rams +7

Home teams should rarely be getting a touchdown or more in the NFL, unless they are a really bad team vs a powerhouse. But in this matchup, we have a near powerhouse in Arizona, and an average team in St. Louis. Rams defense shows up here, and the 83% betting public take a fall with Arizona.

 

Chiefs @ Raiders

Raiders +3

Taking the points in this divisional match. Very evenly matched teams here, but I think Carr is a slightly better QB right now, and Oakland has edge with home field.

 

Bengals @ Browns

Browns +10

Much like my SF bet last week who was home +11, this is just way too many points for a home underdog. The line opened at 9.5, which is a small fringe point for me. Had it opened at 10 or higher, I’d likely stay away. But the favorite inducing -9.5 line coupled with an 80% public margin dictates 2 units on the home dog.

 

081515-SW-NFL-Brian-Hoyer-DeAndre-Hopkins-PI.vadapt.620.high.77

NFL DFS Week 12 – Daily Fantasy Lineups

081515-SW-NFL-Brian-Hoyer-DeAndre-Hopkins-PI.vadapt.620.high.77

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer – $7,100
Playing great and vs SF who’s 27th in the league against the pass.  Stack with Fitzgerald for what could be a bloodbath in San Francisco.
B. Hoyer – $5,000
Big value play here, as he’s back from concussion and playing the Saints, who look like they may be the worst defense in the history of the league.  Hopkins should go off here so stack with confidence. I would reverse stack this with Cooks or Watson, or Snead if you’re feeling lucky.  (I’ve been going snead-free for a few weeks now).

J. McCown – $5,000
Playing vs Baltimore who is very weak against the pass, stack with Barnidge for a cheap stack with very nice potential.

Running Backs

C. Ivory – $5,800
Home vs a pretty bad looking Miami defense.  Hasn’t had a huge game as of late, but I expect a monster from him this week and at a steal of a price.

T. Yeldon – $4,800
Home vs cross-country traveling San Diego, who looks pretty weak at the moment and has a 25th ranked defense against the run.  Great spot here and better price.

J. Allen – $4,600
Who in god’s name is playing this week for the Ravens on offense?  It could get ugly for Baltimore but I will gamble on their starting running back in a few lineups, based on volume of plays and price alone.
T. Rawls – $4,500
Top dog on great rushing team, but tough matchup.  All in all way too good of a price for this home back to not have in multiple lineups.

T. Coleman – $4,300
Freeman is still questionable.  If he plays, it sounds like he’ll carry a light load, giving Coleman a decent shot at a big game.  If Freeman sits, then Coleman may be the steal of the week at this price.  I’ll be gambling on him.

Wide Receivers

J. Jones – $9,400
Has had about 10 catches the last 4 weeks.  He’s an absolute monster and is worth every penny every week.  However this week he plays home vs the Vikings, and star RB Freeman is hobbled and possibly will sit.  Huge game for struggling Falcons, and they may have no choice but to feed Julio and let him carry them.

D. Hopkins – $9,100
Having a great year and is very reliable for this price.  This week they play the Saints, who are by far one of the worst defenses against the pass.  The Texans don’t spread the ball around that much either, leaving Hopkins as their primary target. I have zero issues spending here this week.

D. Jackson – $5,100
Jackson plays home vs the Giants, who are the only team worse than the Saints statistically against the pass. Great price and great matchup for Jackson who is coming on strong at the moment.

V. Jackson – $4,700
Finally back from injury, Jackson wasted no time getting heavily involved in TB’s pass heavy offense. He went off earlier this season as well, which proves his high ceiling potential. I estimate his price won’t be nearly this cheap for long. Also, if Vonte Davis plays he will likely matchup vs Evans, leaving Jackson as the possible primary target.

S. Johnson – $4,500
Hasn’t gone off yet, but has had consistent production for this cheap price. Still has potential for very high ceiling as well. I bet he goes off huge once or twice this season.

Tight Ends

D. Walker – $5,400
Has been the most consistent TE in the last 6 weeks, so is a great price just for that reason. Also he is playing the Raiders in Tennessee, who s 30th against the pass and dead last against the TE, so excellent matchup as well.

J. Reed – $5,100
One of Cousin’s favorite targets, and this game could be very high scoring. Giants worst defense in the league vs the pass at the moment.

G. Barnidge – $4,800
Great matchup for Barnidge, as Cleveland plays at home vs the Ravens. Ravens are poor against the pass, and their offensive struggles due to injuries may set the Browns up for a few more TD chances with good field position.

Team Defense

Bengals – $3,000
Browns – $2,000
Titans – $2,000

tenn

Week 12 NFL Picks

tenn

BetSome Pick of the Week on a 6-0 streak!

Raiders @ Titans

Titans +2

Titans are playing good football at home, and Raiders losing games away. 2nd road game in a row for Oakland should take a toll, and this one is all the way cross country. Public is high on Oakland, I love Tennessee by a touchdown here.

 

Giants @ Redskins

Redskins +3

Taking the points in this classic divisional match. Love home dogs when the public is loading up the other way.

 

Cardinals @ 49ers

49ers +11

Too many points not to take here. I think Cardinals take this game by a touchdown, but wouldn’t be surprised by a crazy upset.

 

NFL: Preseason-Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

NFL Thanksgiving Picks – Week 12

NFL: Preseason-Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

BetSome Pick of the Week on a 6-0 streak!

Panthers @ Cowboys

Cowboys +1

Romo seems to be back, as do the Dallas Cowboys. Romo better than Cam off of a short week, and at home (also an advantage on a short week). Panthers will likely lose a game this season, and this is likely the one. Vegas sure seems to think so with this ridiculous low line. 10-0 @ 3-7 and it’s basically a pickem. Go against the 80% public here for a happy thanksgiving.

 

lions

Week 11 NFL Picks

lions

BetSome Pick of the Week on a 5-0 streak!

Raiders @ Lions

Lions +2

The lowly Lions only a 2 point dog against the hot Raiders; it’s tempting to take Oakland here or to even stay away, but the bet is Detroit. Lion’s offensive line is terrible, but so is Oakland’s defense who’s one of the last in the league. Public 78% on Raiders. Detroit’s talent wins out in this one, Lions by a touchdown.

 

Dallas @ Miami

Miami +1

Romo’s first game back will be an exciting one, but it will take him a week or two to get back in the groove. Dallas not playing for much, and you gotta love home-dogs when the public is all over the other side. Miami takes this game by a FG.