Kam Chancellor

Updated Super Bowl Value Picks – 2015 NFL Season

Kam Chancellor

As the halfway point approaches, there are a couple good value bets to consider for Super Bowl.

https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/2016-nfl-futures-2016-super-bowl-50.sbk

Seattle 15-1

They are 3-4 but hot. Lynch has returned at 100%, Sherman and the defense are shutting people down and Wilson commands the team with confidence. They have an unreal home field advantage and their is still plenty of time for them to come back and win the division outright.

Pittsburgh 15-1

I love Pitt because of how they have responded without Big Ben. They play with the belief they can win any game and I think that stems from their Coach Mike Tomlin. It is extremely important for pro athletes to respect the Coach, which results in giving their best performance.

Armed with three quarterbacks that can be called upon for a win, the top wide receiver, and the top running back in the game, Pitt @ 15-1 is looking great.

Denver 15-1

Top defense, Peyton Manning, and a stranglehold on their division makes this bet hard to pass up. They should be home in the playoffs and despite his obvious lack of arm strength Peyton is smart enough to beat teams with a sound game plan alone. That being said their running game is tough to watch and I may be ignoring the eye test and betting with my heart here.

Cowboys 50-1

The Cowboys (2-3) are 1/2 game out for best record in their division and currently hold the tie-breaker with a 2-0 division record. Dez Bryant is back and I think they have to go at least 2-2 over the next 4 games until Romo returns (@Giants, Seattle, Philly, @Tampa).

When Dez/Romo are healthy this team can win in Seattle and push Green Bay to the brink. The playoffs are certainly within reach and the league’s top offensive line should keep Matt Cassel upright until Romo returns. Brandon Weeden could not find his receivers and Cassel comes with the experience of running Bill Belichek’s team, he will be ready.

Chargers 150-1

Rivers is having an MVP year and the Chargers (2-4) can keep pace with any team. Melvin Gordon has been disappointing so far and they will need a legitimate running threat if they hope to win on the road in the playoffs.

It appears like the Chargers are competing with the Jets and Steelers for the wild card. They lost to Pitt, GB, Cinci, and Minn. Three of these teams will be playoff bound and the schedule is much more favorable for Rivers in the second half of the season.

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Week 7 NFL Picks

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Falcons @ Titans

Titans +5

I don’t like many games this week, but I do like this one. Atlanta should be favored here by 7, but they opened at -4. Some books have it at -6, as the public is jumping all over Atlanta as expected. Remember though that Vegas sets these lines for a reason, and they are pretty good. Public over 80% on Atlanta, and I think they fall hard this week. QB issues in Tennessee is the only concern. I think the bookmakers win this one outright, as do the Titans.

 

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NFL Week 7 – Daily Fantasy Picks

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Quarterbacks

A. Luck – $7,600
The total of this game is 52.5, the highest of the week. This is a good week to spend on Luck, or even Brees who is similarly priced. The trouble with Luck is who to stack him with. I would go with Hilton, although he has looked sub par, he is still the clear cut WR1, while their other wideouts are very spotty.

P. Rivers – $6,500
Rivers is having the best season of his career, and is leading the league in passing. He has become one of the best QB’s against the blitz, which makes him very dangerous. I’m not sure why, but he’s still relatively low priced for his massive offensive production. I like him as a dark horse MVP candidate as well FWIW at 33-1.

M. Stafford – $5,700
Stafford was one of my best plays last week, as he finally had a monster game. Can he go two in a row? I think for such a low price you have to plug him in and find out.

Honorable Mentions
L. Jones – $5,100
M. Cassel – $5,000
Both are starting for first game on good offenses, they’ll be low drafted and very cheap. Landry Jones looked great last week stepping in for Vick.

Running Backs

T. Gurley – $5,000
Rams coming off of a bye, home against the Browns, and this guy has looked great. In a week full of top RBs playing away, Gurley home at $5,000 is my favorite play of the week.

F. Gore – $4,900
Again, the total of this game is 52.5, highest of the week. Who will get all of these points? Gore is a must play this week due to his high floor and high ceiling potential at a great price.

D. Woodhead – $4,700
With Melvin Gordon hobbled and having ball security issues, expect Woodhead to get an even heavier load this week. Due to his consistent amount of receptions per game, he also has a high floor and high ceiling.

Wide Receivers

B. Marshall – $7,800
This total is 49, and should have a lot of points. Look for NYJ to get down a few scores in the first half, and be forced to throw the middle of the field the rest of the game. The middle of the field is where Marshall thrives. He has had 4 big games in a row, and I see another one due to this matchup.

J. Matthews – $6,400
Matthews has not looked impressive, but he is still getting a lot of targets. This game’s total is high, and the Eagles’ WRs are all hurt. Matthews finally has a game this week.

W. Snead – $4,300
Brees’ favorite target, low price, total is 52.5.

D. Amendola – $3,500
Amendola had his first big game of the year. This was likely due to Edelman’s injury, and I think we see a spillover of this same dynamic this week. Great price, but it is a gamble as Amendola has a history of a low floor (could get you 0 points).

Tight Ends

B. Watson – $3,300
Huge game for Watson last week. I don’t think he matches that this week, but at $3,300 and a high total it’s definitely my favorite TE pick this week. Let’s not forget that Brees likes throwing a lot to TE’s, remember Jimmy Graham?

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16-0 Season Odds – Bet On Undefeated Seasons

tom-brady-patriotsjpg-632a823f54448814There are 5 undefeated teams in the NFL going into Week 6. Here are the odds of each going undefeated, as well as going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl.

Patriots
25/1 to go 16-0.
75/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Packers
30/1 to go 16-0.
90/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Broncos
100/1 to go 16-0.
325/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Bengals
175/1 to go 16-0.
500/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

Panthers
500/1 to go 16-0.
1000/1 to go 16-0 AND win the Superbowl.

*Odds from PaddyPower.com

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More Week 6 NFL Picks

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Broncos @ Browns

Broncos -4

Denver is 5-0, and Peyton Manning hasn’t even started playing yet. They have the top ranked defense, which alone should get it done in Cleveland. Add that to Peyton Manning and the offense finally clicking, and we should see a blowout in Cleveland. Broncos 4-1 ATS in last 5 home games.

 

Giants @ Eagles

Giants +4

The Giants are a better team than people realize right now, and Eli Manning is playing amazing, despite all of the injuries to his WRs. They are putting up 25+ points per game, and are 4-0 ATS on their last 4 road games. The Eagles look decent right now, but are not there yet. Look for Giants to win a close one this week in Phili.

 

Dolphins @ Titans

Dolphins +1

Look for Miami to finally show some spirit in this game, as they are coming off of a bye with a new coach that is trying to set a fire under the ass of a very talented team on both offense and defense. Miami has fallen behind to every team so far this week, and if they can avoid this, they could finally show who they are, or at least who they can be.

 

Patriots @ Colts

Patriots -9

The Patriots have been crushing their opposition this year with no remorse, and are playing very, very pissed off. They are trying to embarrass teams, and the source of this fire is none other than the Indianapolis Colts and the deflate-gate scandal. The Colts just aren’t the team they were last year, and the Patriots are somehow even better than they were a year ago. Look for Brady and the Pats to go off yet again here with a double digit win.