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Betting MLB Futures – 2016 Championship Odds & Picks

new-york-mets

As the long journey toward the world series just begins, all teams in Major League Baseball turn their eyes forward with hopeful eyes at the crown. Will the Giants continue their even-year streak, and win a 4th? Will the pitching heavy Mets battle their way to the playoffs, then let their arms handcuff opposing hitters? Or will the long downtrodden Cubs finally make the push, and cement their place in history?

Like the Cy Young picks, it is tough to predict winners so early in a season. Talent is almost never the soul determinant of a winner. The Angels would have a handful of hardware if that were the case.  This type of predicting is again, at best shots in mild darkness.

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Pitching Staff

When I do weigh in on future world series winners, I try to do so in a semi-standardized way. The very first thing I weigh is a pitching staffs viability. Do they have a stable of guys who can maintain production through the course of 162 games. That begins with the starting 5. I need to see strength through 4 guys, and stability in the 5th for any team to look like a real contender.

On top of that, I really want to see a guy with tremendous “Stuff” at the top of the rotation. A guy with high pitch-ability is fantastic, and a must have. A guy with stuff and high pitch-ability can win even when his pitches aren’t hitting spots. A 98 mile per hour fastball on the hands is almost impossible to hit. Whether the fastball is followed by the perfect tilt, off speed pitch down, or not. Guys like that will win you games consistently in the playoffs.

Seeing a strong back end of a rotation is another must. A lights out setup guy and closer shorten games. When teams get into the playoffs, having to win 7 innings opposed to 9 is a huge value. I think that’s easy enough to see.

If a team has those two things, plus a good long relief guy I think they have play-0ff viability.

Don’t Bet On Teams That Strike Out

Offensively the biggest non starter for me is a team that strikes out a ton. As they are playing now, the Huston Astros will never win a world series. Give me a team like the Royals any day: high contact rates, high on base %, high wins rate. A strike out is as killer to an offense as a walk is to a defense. There is literally nothing a TEAM can do to defend a walk. It is very much the same for a “K”. Striking out does nothing for runners on base, nothing to the defense, nothing for the hitter on deck; crippling.

That is the primary thing I look for in an offense. If a team can score runs, they can win as long as they don’t strike out a ton. Someone may point to teams who have had success hitting the long ball and striking out a ton. I would point to the Mets and say “have fun stringing together multiple solo shots against that staff in a 7 game set”.

Team Defenses

Another overlooked factor is defense. But for this you need to look at the makeup of a team. Instead of taking the one factor “defense”, look at a teams fundamentals. How do they approach 2 strikes, runners in scoring position, base running, and decision making defensively. If they do those things well it would point  towards a winner for me.

So compounding all these factors, we may be able to get a clearer look at potential winners.

Look For Opportunities To Hedge In The Playoffs

Another factor that influences my betting in this area is hedging. I will take long-odds teams based on their ability to get into the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, you can hedge your bets by betting against them in each series, and come away with a very profitable situation.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14516801/mlb-latest-2016-world-series-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook

2016 World Series Odds
TEAM OPEN APRIL 25
Chicago Cubs 10-1 7-2
New York Mets 10-1 8
Kansas City Royals 14-1 10
Washington Nationals 10-1 10
San Francisco Giants 20-1 12
Los Angeles Dodgers 8-1 12
Texas Rangers 12-1 14
Cleveland Indians 20-1 14
Toronto Blue Jays 10-1 16
Boston Red Sox 18-1 18
Chicago White Sox 40-1 18
Houston Astros 14-1 20
St. Louis Cardinals 12-1 20
Baltimore Orioles 40-1 20
Detroit Tigers 20-1 30
New York Yankees 16-1 30
Seattle Mariners 30-1 30
Pittsburgh Pirates 12-1 35
Arizona Diamondbacks 60-1 40
Tampa Bay Rays 40-1 40
Los Angeles Angels 20-1 50
Oakland Athletics 60-1 80
Minnesota Twins 40-1 100
Miami Marlins 60-1 100
Colorado Rockies 150-1 200
San Diego Padres 60-1 300
Philadelphia Phillies 300-1 300
Cincinnati Reds 60-1 500
Milwaukee Brewers 60-1 500
Atlanta Braves 100-1 1000

The Front Runners

METS 8-1

For the billionth time….METS METS METS. If this team makes the playoffs they are running through every team they face that isn’t named the Giants or Cardinals. That pitching staff can absolutely demolish lineups (See 2015 Cubs). They only chance teams have against that stable of thoroughbreds is contact, men on base, and smart decision making on the base paths.  8-1 isn’t exactly a value bet, but this team has a very good chance at making the playoffs. Once they make it, they will make a deep run undoubtedly.

ROYALS 10-1

The back end of this pen makes games 6 innings. Same story as the previous 2 years. They make great contact offensively (see 2015 world series). They were good, they are good, they will be good. 10 to 1 is getting a little better, so I don’t hate putting money on a very good team that is expected to do well here.

GIANTS 12-1

If they pitch they will win. MadBum hasn’t looked like himself early, I have a ton of questions about Cueto, and the back end is terribly inconsistent. One thing I do know is that fundamentally this team can play ball. The have very good situational hitting, they play stellar defense, and they have the ability to run. Match that up with Bruce Bochy and a team full of veterans who have done it before and spell it wit me S.U.C.C.E.S.S.

Value Picks

CARDINALS 20-1

The Cardinals at 20 to 1 is a steal. That team has pitching. Wainwright, Wacha, Leake, Martinez, and Garcia. Two guys who can go out and dominate teams with high pitchability and stuff, a third in Martinez with the same caliber of stuff (just a tad bit less pitchability), and solid back end guys. The staff is there for me. Offensively, they are very savy with a lot of talent. 20 to 1 on a team wit this much experience is a very smart bet.

OAKLAND 80-1

I LOVE OAKLAND…to make the playoffs. At 80 to 1, you get them to the playoffs and start hedging your bet and you find yourself in a very profitable situation. There is just something about this organization that puts teams out there every so often that win despite everything else. They have a good young staff with decent young talent in the field. I promise you I’m betting Oakland personally this year, so if they tank I tank as well. Should tell you something about my conviction.

ARIZONA 40-1

They have to beat the Giants and Dodgers…a very tall order. With Grienke, they have an ace capable of beating anyone. Miller and Corbin make a great 2-3 punch, that matches or beats any the Dodgers and Giants have. For me the staff is there, if the bullpen performs. Offensively they are lead by a top 5 hitter in the league. Paul Goldschmit is the truth. Behind him  they are young and inexperienced. At 40 to 1 it is close for me. I hate that they have to beat 2 solid teams to get out of the division. Especially when the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs are all very talented in the central. They can do it however, and at for 40 to 1 they payoff is large enough to outweigh the risk.

DETROIT 30-1

I have been saying since they end of last year that the Tigers are not as bad as they seem. Verlander, Sanchez, Zimmerman at the front end of a solid staff. Cabrera, Kinsler, Martinez, and Upton should scare any staff not from New York named the Mets. I’m not sold on these guys, but at 30-1 they intrigue me. If they keep winning you are going to regret not getting in early.

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Top 5 Things to Know When Playing NBA DFS

BzCgXPgCAAEH6nYWant to get into NBA Daily Fantasy Sports? Here are the top 5 things you need to know before jumping in. This also inlcludes my systems and routines that make it easy, fun, and profitable to play daily fantasy.

Pick Players Who Play The Most Minutes

In the NBA, every possession contains fantasy points. This is because DFS scoring includes points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks. So just being on the floor more than other players is a huge advantage.

Implement: Pick players who have the most minutes on the floor. Do this by seeing how many average minutes they have played in the past 5 games. This is a safe indicator of how much burn he should get that night.

Check The Vegas Spreads

The odds-makers are by far the best indicator on how many expected points are to be had in every game. A simple rule of thumb is to pick players from the teams with the highest point total that night.

You’ll also want to pick games with closer spreads, and stay away from blowouts. Blowouts can hurt players on your team, as they may get taken out in the 4th quarter and play less minutes. Closer games ensure that first-stringers will play the entire game. Closer games also carry greater potential for overtime, which act as bonus points for your players.

If you do pick players from teams playing in potential blowouts, pick players from the favored team, as they are more likely to still have solid games before being taken out.

Implement: Check the Vegas lines. Select players from games with high totals and close spreads.

Injury Reports

This is huge in every DFS sport, but even bigger in the NBA. Due to a tremendous amount of late game scratches, you must be diligent in checking the injury report to ensure no players give you a goose egg which is an automatic loss.

This also can bring to your attention some last minute value, as players who are scratched add more value to the other stars or subs on their team. Often times, NBA lineups don’t get officially released until an hour before tip off.

Implement: Check twitter and sites like rotoworld.com up to 45 minutes before your game begins. Sub out any scratches, and check for last minute value plays based on late scratches.

High Floors & High Ceilings

You’ll want to pick players with a good high floor/high ceiling mix. High floor means they will always get you a guaranteed amount of points, and high ceiling means they can blow up for a huge game.

When you are playing big tournaments with lots of players, you will lose a lot. The few times you win will make up for it though, as all of the big money is in the top few spots. Because of this, you can’t afford a goose egg or a massive under-performance, but you need a few of your guys to blow up to win big tournaments.

Implement: This is a tough balance to find, but I like to go with slightly higher mix of high ceiling. High floors can usually be found within high minutes.

Resources

Study up, and use resources. Often. So have a resource list that you are able to utilize. Mine are pretty simple and include Twitter, Rotoworld forums, and podcasts/articles from sites I have grown to respect.

Implement: Create a routine. I like to do my research the night before games or in the morning for about an hour. Throughout the day I’ll read a few articles and listen to podcasts from my favorite sites. After this I’ll set my lineups, and come back an hour before and do last minute adjustments based on the official lineup releases.

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3 General Sports Betting Concepts

Sports-betting-boardThere are a few simple concepts I follow very closely when I choose which games I am going to wager on. This applies to almost all sports but is most effective in NBA, NHL, NFL, NCAABB, and NCAAF.

The three things I pay the most attention to are Bounce Backs, Let Downs, and Revenge situations.


Bounce Backs

This situation occurs when a team has a below average performance the previous game and is looking to rebound after a poor showing. In NBA, it could be a team that scored only 78 points (20 below its average) and shot a dismal 34% field goal percentage. In these situations I look for a team to refocus and put forth a better effort in their next contest.

Let Downs

This is when a team is riding high from a big upset they just pulled off. This can be emotionally draining for a team and also could cause some lack of focus in preparation for their next contest. The team could be celebrating too much and just isn’t as focused going into their next game.

Revenge

This is pretty self explanatory but is a big factor when teams meet multiple times throughout the course of a season. The team that lost has more motivation to do well the next time the two teams meet. They actually have an advantage over the other team because they can adjust to the things that didn’t work and also incorporate new strategies to try and get the win the second time around.

What people don’t realize is that a good coach is what drives these adjustments. I never used to look at coaching but now it is hard to ignore who some of these coaches are. Gregg Popovich and Bill Belichick are two of the best in all of sports.

There are other things to consider then just these 3 concepts but these are the roots of what I use when I do my research on a game.


Snap Bet Games When All 3 Concepts Are At Play

There are even situations when you have all 3 concepts align in a single game and if the line is right you can almost be certain that this will be an auto-bet for me. And if you look closely at each one of these, they are all based around fading the public. The public will just notice Team A beat Team B last week by 23 points and betting Team A will almost be an auto-bet for them, but for me it is the exact opposite.

Individual Players

You can break it down to Offense and Defense or even down to the individual player level. LeBron James is one of the best bounce back players in NBA playoff history. Whether you like him or not you cannot deny that after a loss he will have a solid bounce back performance. And he will definitely motivate his teammates in the same way.

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Betting Major League Baseball

baseball-bettingMLB is one of the more unique sports to bet on. As a general rule, fading the public is always the way to approach sports gambling and there is no difference when it comes to baseball.

The big difference with baseball from other sports is that you are generally wagering on moneylines.

They do offer a spread (Run Line/RL), which is always -1.5, but the odds on the RL fluctuate depending on how heavy the favorite is.

For example, a -200 moneyline equates to about a -1.5 (-110) Run Line. Just like most sports the public gets caught up with the favorite, thinking that the favorite will usually win and they don’t take into consideration by how much. Well in MLB it is even less noticeable because when betting a moneyline, all the team has to do is win. What they don’t realize is how much juice they are actually risking.

NFL vs MLB

If you take a look back at the 2008 NFL season you will notice the Detroit lions went 0-16 and were the worst team in football. They lost 100% of their games played. Also in the 2007 NFL season the New England Patriots went 16-0 and were the best team in the NFL winning 100% of their games.

Now we’ll go to the 2012 MLB season where the worst team, by far, was the Houston Astros. That year the Astros went 55-107 winning 35% of their games. In the same season you have the best team, the Washington Nationals, who went 98-64 winning 60.5% of their games.

When you compare the two sports you notice that the worst team in MLB wins a significantly higher percentage of games and the best team in baseball wins a significantly lower percentage of their games.

Now this is an extreme example but it just goes to show you that the worst team in baseball over the course of the season still wins a good number of games compared to other sports.

How To Bet MLB

This all simply tells us that the value in betting baseball is picking the underdogs in good spots.

It doesn’t mean stay away from the favorites, but I generally use the rule about not wagering on a team favored anything more than a -150. There are some cases where I still like a team favored more than a -150 and in those cases is where I will place a wager on the RL.

Baseball is a long season of 162 games, and just like sports betting it’s a marathon and not a sprint. Taking into consideration pitching vs hitting matchups is crucial. Some players just match up well versus others.

Also in a sport where failing 70% of the time means you are doing good, then it is very profitable to continue wagering on those hot teams and fading the teams who are slumping.

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Fading The Public

betsome stadiumPerhaps one of the purest concepts in sports betting is betting against the public. The reasoning behind this is simple:

If the public won more times than they lost, Vegas and the casinos would be broke.

But they’re not broke. In fact, they make a lot of money. And it likely isn’t from just scraping up vigs.

The public represents the majority of the bettors, and the majority of the bettors usually bet their favorite or the more popular teams. They generally don’t factor in many of the subtleties that can be huge in professional matches.

This is why you will sometimes see a game where the best team in the league is playing a mediocre team, and the line is lower than it seems it should be. The public will usually bet the better team impulsively, even sometimes knowing that it is a weird line. The fact however is that the line is most likely very accurate, and low for a reason.

The public does win however, just enough to keep them coming back for more. Vegas is a pool of sharks, and even sharks know that the fish have to eat sometimes too.

Tips On How & When To Fade The Public

The 65% rule:
In general you want to fade the public when they are 65% or more on one side. So bet the 35% team.

Fade the away teams:
In sports such as the NFL, fade the public by betting home teams that are playing a more talented or popular away team. In certain sports home field plays a much larger role than in others, and the NFL is certainly one of them.

Taking advantage of public line moves:
When the public jumps all over a line, it can often move the line to your advantage. When you see a big public favorite, wait for the line to move and then bet against them.

A prime example of this happens frequently in the NFL: A top team is favored by less than 7 points and playing away, and the public bets heavy on the better team (away team) moving the line up from 6 points to 7 or even higher. This is a prime spot to fade the public and now take your team with an even better point spread at 7.

Example:
The Patriots play away at the Jets.
The line opens at the Patriots -6.
The public thinking that the patriots will likely win by a touchdown at least hop on the Patriots bandwagon.
This moves the line to the Jets +7.5.
You now bet the Jets, because it was the right play to begin with, and you now have a huge 1.5 point extra edge for your bet.

Long run strategy:
Remember that this is a long run strategy, just like everything in betting. Your wins and losses will be streaky.

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Guide To Betting Exactas

perfectlinebetsomeEver notice how good the oddsmakers are at making lines? Ever think they might be so good that you’d like to bet that they get it exactly right?

Betting an exacta means you are betting that the favorite will win by the exact amount that the line is set by. You are simply betting that the line is exactly right.

An example of this is when a team is favored by 7 points. You are betting that the favorite will win by exactly 7 points, and getting odds on your money if they do.

While exactas can be tough to hit, you can get huge odds on your money for a relatively small bet.

In this article we’ll explain general spots when exactas are smart bets, how to manipulate the odds you’ll get on your money, and how to be ready to bet exactas when those perfect lines occur.

General Spots To Bet Exactas

The best example of when and why to bet an exacta is when an NFL game has a 3 point line. This is because approximately 15% (1 in 6) of NFL games end in a 3 point difference.

7 point lines are also good lines to bet exactas in the NFL, as approximately 10% of games end in a 7 point difference.

10 point lines are the 3rd most common point differential followed closely by 4 and 6. All of these point spreads are good lines to gamble on an exacta, primarily when you can get 20-1 odds on them.

College football games with 3 or 7 point lines are also good spots for exactas.

These are all generally great spots to look to bet exactas. In other sports such as basketball, you may want to bet exactas when the line is 8 points or lower, and you can get at least 15-1 on your money.

How To Bet Exactas & Get The Best Odds On Your Money

To get the best odds possible, you should have access to multiple sportsbooks, as well as be paying attention throughout the day or week as the lines move. Here at Betsome.com we keep you updated on the best possible exactas every day.

Exactas With 20-1 Odds

This occurs when the oddsmakers set a line, and you are able to find it on different sportsbooks for 1/2 point lower AND a 1/2 point higher. You then bet both sides. Your risk is 1 vig, and your reward is winning both bets when the line is perfect.

Most of the time you will need 2 different sports books to get 20-1 on an exacta, but every now and then you can execute it with only one sportsbook, if the line moves around enough.

Example of a 20-1 exacta:

  • The Packers are favored by 3 points at home against the Broncos.
    On one sports book they are -3.5, but on another they are -2.5.

    You bet $100 on the underdog (Broncos) +3.5 on the first book. You then bet $100 on the favorite (Packers) -2.5 on the other book.

    If the Packers win by exactly 3, you win both bets for a total of $200.

    If any other score results, you lose only $10. This is because you win $100 on your bet that wins, and lose $110 on that loses.

    This is how you get 20-1 on an exacta.

  • When you see opportunites to get 20-1 on your money on a perfect line, take them. Especially if it is a good spot to bet exactas in the first place, such as a 3 or 7 point line in football.

    Exactas With 15-1 Odds:

    The basic difference between the 15-1 exacta and the 20-1 exacta is that you are buying a 1/2 point on one of your bets in order to force the exacta. You are simply paying double the vig if the side you force loses. 15-1 is still great odds on your money on the right lines, so it is advised to take a 15-1 exacta on reasonable spreads.

    Example of a 15-1 exacta:

  • The Packers are favored by 3 points at home against the Broncos.
    On one sports book they are -3.5, yet on another they are only -3.

    So you bet $100 on the underdog (Broncos) +3.5. You then buy a half a point and bet the Packers -2.5.

    You now lose either $10 if one side loses, or $20 if the side you buy the half a point on loses.

    Yet you win both bets for a total of $200 if the Packers win by exactly 3.

    You can almost always find a way to get at least 15-1 on your money if you have more than one sportsbook available. Many times you can get 15-1 on an exacta with just one sportsbook as well if you are paying attention and the line moves a little bit.

  • Exactas With 10-1 Odds

    This is when you bet exactas with just 1 sportsbook, and have to buy a 1/2 point both ways. This is what we call “forcing” an exacta. It does not mean it’s a bad play, it simply means that you think it’s a good enough play to force it and only get 10-1 odds.

    Example of betting a 10-1 exacta:

  • The Packers are favored over the Broncos by 3 points, and the line isn’t moving, so you buy a 1/2 point both ways.

    You make the Packers -2.5, and the Broncos +3.5, and bet $100 on each.
    If the game ends with the Packers winning by exactly 3, you win both bets for a total of $200.

    If the game ends in any other score, you lose $20. This is because you win one bet for $100, but lose the other for $120 (the extra vig for buying the half of a point).

  • You can do a 10-1 exacta with only one sportsbook available.

    How To Be Ready For Exactas

    To get maximum value and odds on your exactas, it is smart to be prepared. Here are a few ways you can do this.

    Have multiple sports books

    Being ready to bet on multiple different sportsbooks is essential to getting maximum odds on your exactas. While it is possible to get 20-1 on an exacta with only one sportsbook, it is far more difficult and much less frequent.

    Pay attention to lines as they move

    In order to get 20-1 on your money, you will have to watch the lines across a few different sites so you will not have to force it one way or another by buying a half of a point and doubling your vig. When the line moves a half a point on one site, snap it up and bet.

    Here at Betsome.com we have multiple sports books and their updated lines always ready for you, and we’re constantly looking for good exactas and reporting them to our audience so check back often for the best exactas!

    Hit all of the major lines

    As we discussed earlier, certain games end in certain spreads with remarkable accuracy. In football, these lines are simply 3, 7, 10, 4, and 6.

    Other sports such as basketball is a bit more wide open, but anything less than 8 is not a bad play to bet an exacta if you can get the appropriate odds.

    If NFL games end in 3 points 1/6 times, why not take 20-1 on that every time?

    Betsome - How To Bet Sports Futures

    Guide To Betting Sports Futures

    Betsome - How To Bet Sports FuturesNo matter your sport, future betting is a great way to have a nice payout, and a long sweat on your pick to win it all.

    A couple things stick out to me that are important to consider before making your bet. A solid combination of the following should provide a profitable future strategy.

    Line Shopping

    Review multiple sportsbooks or sites to make sure you get the best possible value for your bet.  

    Sportsbooks are different across the board in the way they set their game lines as well as futures. Depending on where you live there will often be restrictions on what sites you can bet on. Make a list of the ones available in your area and then choose the favorable odds for your bet.

    Value

    Odds are continuously fluctuating throughout the year due to injuries, trades/signings, losing/win streaks, and public perception. Be smart and realize the champion usually possesses star players, a great coach, a top defense and experience. Odds reflect current trends so take advantage and go with your gut if you think a team will be rolling come the playoffs.

    940-spurs-popovichCoaching

    Professional athletes are men. If you do not have the respect of them as the coach, they will not buy into your vision and the team success will be minimal.

    The coaches that get their players to buy in are the coaches that make deep playoff runs.  The talent is usually secondary.

    Past results are a nice indicator for a future bet as many great coaches win multiple years. The Coach of the team you bet on should also dominate key decisions in the playoffs, where the game is slowed down and the unprepared are exposed.

    I took the over of Atlanta Hawks wins at 41.5 this year (which they had by all-star break) and threw $25 on them at 100-1 to win it all, simply because they had gotten Mike Budenholzer the Spurs assistant coach that had studied under Greg Popovich for 15 years. Though I don’t think the Hawks will win it all they are the #1 seed and I was able to find terrific value that I can hedge my bet against.

    Timing

    If the team has been close in prior playoffs, has the same core of the team, and is on a hot streak at the end of the year, that makes for an attractive play. Conversely, if they are off to a slow start but are a perennial contender with star power, trust they will work out the issues come playoff time (think Cavs this year).

    The Thunder at 25-1 were the sneak pick of myself and two buddies this year. Placed while Durant and Westbrook were both out and the team had stumbled to a 3-12 start, it looked great until Durant was ruled out for the year with his foot problem. These odds were for a hungry team that nearly beat the Champion Spurs in last years West Finals without Ibaka.

    Research

    I wouldn’t suggest making your bet until you have studied the best content for a couple months. Articles, expert predictions, power rankings and the eye test of actually watching the games should all be absorbed before taking the plunge.