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Fading The Public

betsome stadiumPerhaps one of the purest concepts in sports betting is betting against the public. The reasoning behind this is simple:

If the public won more times than they lost, Vegas and the casinos would be broke.

But they’re not broke. In fact, they make a lot of money. And it likely isn’t from just scraping up vigs.

The public represents the majority of the bettors, and the majority of the bettors usually bet their favorite or the more popular teams. They generally don’t factor in many of the subtleties that can be huge in professional matches.

This is why you will sometimes see a game where the best team in the league is playing a mediocre team, and the line is lower than it seems it should be. The public will usually bet the better team impulsively, even sometimes knowing that it is a weird line. The fact however is that the line is most likely very accurate, and low for a reason.

The public does win however, just enough to keep them coming back for more. Vegas is a pool of sharks, and even sharks know that the fish have to eat sometimes too.

Tips On How & When To Fade The Public

The 65% rule:
In general you want to fade the public when they are 65% or more on one side. So bet the 35% team.

Fade the away teams:
In sports such as the NFL, fade the public by betting home teams that are playing a more talented or popular away team. In certain sports home field plays a much larger role than in others, and the NFL is certainly one of them.

Taking advantage of public line moves:
When the public jumps all over a line, it can often move the line to your advantage. When you see a big public favorite, wait for the line to move and then bet against them.

A prime example of this happens frequently in the NFL: A top team is favored by less than 7 points and playing away, and the public bets heavy on the better team (away team) moving the line up from 6 points to 7 or even higher. This is a prime spot to fade the public and now take your team with an even better point spread at 7.

Example:
The Patriots play away at the Jets.
The line opens at the Patriots -6.
The public thinking that the patriots will likely win by a touchdown at least hop on the Patriots bandwagon.
This moves the line to the Jets +7.5.
You now bet the Jets, because it was the right play to begin with, and you now have a huge 1.5 point extra edge for your bet.

Long run strategy:
Remember that this is a long run strategy, just like everything in betting. Your wins and losses will be streaky.

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Guide To Betting Exactas

perfectlinebetsomeEver notice how good the oddsmakers are at making lines? Ever think they might be so good that you’d like to bet that they get it exactly right?

Betting an exacta means you are betting that the favorite will win by the exact amount that the line is set by. You are simply betting that the line is exactly right.

An example of this is when a team is favored by 7 points. You are betting that the favorite will win by exactly 7 points, and getting odds on your money if they do.

While exactas can be tough to hit, you can get huge odds on your money for a relatively small bet.

In this article we’ll explain general spots when exactas are smart bets, how to manipulate the odds you’ll get on your money, and how to be ready to bet exactas when those perfect lines occur.

General Spots To Bet Exactas

The best example of when and why to bet an exacta is when an NFL game has a 3 point line. This is because approximately 15% (1 in 6) of NFL games end in a 3 point difference.

7 point lines are also good lines to bet exactas in the NFL, as approximately 10% of games end in a 7 point difference.

10 point lines are the 3rd most common point differential followed closely by 4 and 6. All of these point spreads are good lines to gamble on an exacta, primarily when you can get 20-1 odds on them.

College football games with 3 or 7 point lines are also good spots for exactas.

These are all generally great spots to look to bet exactas. In other sports such as basketball, you may want to bet exactas when the line is 8 points or lower, and you can get at least 15-1 on your money.

How To Bet Exactas & Get The Best Odds On Your Money

To get the best odds possible, you should have access to multiple sportsbooks, as well as be paying attention throughout the day or week as the lines move. Here at Betsome.com we keep you updated on the best possible exactas every day.

Exactas With 20-1 Odds

This occurs when the oddsmakers set a line, and you are able to find it on different sportsbooks for 1/2 point lower AND a 1/2 point higher. You then bet both sides. Your risk is 1 vig, and your reward is winning both bets when the line is perfect.

Most of the time you will need 2 different sports books to get 20-1 on an exacta, but every now and then you can execute it with only one sportsbook, if the line moves around enough.

Example of a 20-1 exacta:

  • The Packers are favored by 3 points at home against the Broncos.
    On one sports book they are -3.5, but on another they are -2.5.

    You bet $100 on the underdog (Broncos) +3.5 on the first book. You then bet $100 on the favorite (Packers) -2.5 on the other book.

    If the Packers win by exactly 3, you win both bets for a total of $200.

    If any other score results, you lose only $10. This is because you win $100 on your bet that wins, and lose $110 on that loses.

    This is how you get 20-1 on an exacta.

  • When you see opportunites to get 20-1 on your money on a perfect line, take them. Especially if it is a good spot to bet exactas in the first place, such as a 3 or 7 point line in football.

    Exactas With 15-1 Odds:

    The basic difference between the 15-1 exacta and the 20-1 exacta is that you are buying a 1/2 point on one of your bets in order to force the exacta. You are simply paying double the vig if the side you force loses. 15-1 is still great odds on your money on the right lines, so it is advised to take a 15-1 exacta on reasonable spreads.

    Example of a 15-1 exacta:

  • The Packers are favored by 3 points at home against the Broncos.
    On one sports book they are -3.5, yet on another they are only -3.

    So you bet $100 on the underdog (Broncos) +3.5. You then buy a half a point and bet the Packers -2.5.

    You now lose either $10 if one side loses, or $20 if the side you buy the half a point on loses.

    Yet you win both bets for a total of $200 if the Packers win by exactly 3.

    You can almost always find a way to get at least 15-1 on your money if you have more than one sportsbook available. Many times you can get 15-1 on an exacta with just one sportsbook as well if you are paying attention and the line moves a little bit.

  • Exactas With 10-1 Odds

    This is when you bet exactas with just 1 sportsbook, and have to buy a 1/2 point both ways. This is what we call “forcing” an exacta. It does not mean it’s a bad play, it simply means that you think it’s a good enough play to force it and only get 10-1 odds.

    Example of betting a 10-1 exacta:

  • The Packers are favored over the Broncos by 3 points, and the line isn’t moving, so you buy a 1/2 point both ways.

    You make the Packers -2.5, and the Broncos +3.5, and bet $100 on each.
    If the game ends with the Packers winning by exactly 3, you win both bets for a total of $200.

    If the game ends in any other score, you lose $20. This is because you win one bet for $100, but lose the other for $120 (the extra vig for buying the half of a point).

  • You can do a 10-1 exacta with only one sportsbook available.

    How To Be Ready For Exactas

    To get maximum value and odds on your exactas, it is smart to be prepared. Here are a few ways you can do this.

    Have multiple sports books

    Being ready to bet on multiple different sportsbooks is essential to getting maximum odds on your exactas. While it is possible to get 20-1 on an exacta with only one sportsbook, it is far more difficult and much less frequent.

    Pay attention to lines as they move

    In order to get 20-1 on your money, you will have to watch the lines across a few different sites so you will not have to force it one way or another by buying a half of a point and doubling your vig. When the line moves a half a point on one site, snap it up and bet.

    Here at Betsome.com we have multiple sports books and their updated lines always ready for you, and we’re constantly looking for good exactas and reporting them to our audience so check back often for the best exactas!

    Hit all of the major lines

    As we discussed earlier, certain games end in certain spreads with remarkable accuracy. In football, these lines are simply 3, 7, 10, 4, and 6.

    Other sports such as basketball is a bit more wide open, but anything less than 8 is not a bad play to bet an exacta if you can get the appropriate odds.

    If NFL games end in 3 points 1/6 times, why not take 20-1 on that every time?