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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 9

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I’m not picking players from the Thursday night game (Atlanta-Bucs) in this post. Aside from that, here are my core daily fantasy picks for week 9 of the NFL.

Quarterback

A. Rodgers – $7,800
You almost have to play this guy at this point. I had him last week and I’ll have him next. Without a running game Rodgers has the green light with a great matchup at home vs the Colts.

R. Tannehill – $5,600
Finally playing well and has a big matchup vs the Jets who can’t stop anyone through the air. A week where there aren’t that many QBs that can score 30 (aside from thursday game), Tannehill might be a good low-owned gamble. Miami off of a bye.

Running Back

L. Bell – $7,700
This is a spot where I will attempt to differentiate my lineup, by picking a stud with a bad matchup. Aside from his ridiculous talent, Bell’s receptions make him a 20 point floor with a huge upside. Should be lower owned than he deserves this week at Baltimore.

M. Forte – $6,500
I’ve had Forte the last two weeks and I am going to keep on riding him, as long as the Jets are. I can’t see why they wouldn’t at the moment. Has a decent matchup vs an inconsistent Miami defense, and that low 10th OPRK should have people shopping elsewhere.

D. Sproles – $3,900
Good cheap option as it looks like he has taken over the #1 roll in Philadelphia. Should hit the 12+ fantasy points he needs to pay for himself with ease, and has an enormous upside.

D. Henry – $5,000
Already has had some big time production, and DeMarco Murray may be hobbled or out this Sunday. If that is the case keep your eye on Henry.

Wide Receiver

D. Adams – $4,900
Packers already were thin to none at RB last week, and now Knile Davis is gone too. Cobb and Montgomery are both questionable and didn’t play last week. Jordy seems to not be 100% still, and Rodgers loves this guy. At $5,900 you can’t miss.

K. Stills – $3,900
Jets are the worst in the league at the deep ball, and Miami has thrown it down-field to Stills more and more as the weeks have gone by. I like Parker as a sneak play for the same reasons.

Tight End

K. Rudolph – $4,000
Still a great price and gets a ton of targets. If he can find the end zone he will be huge. Matchup of the week vs Detroit should have him very high owned.

J. Doyle – $3,600
Tough OPRK will have him pretty low owned in what could be a shootout vs Green Bay. Big upside here.

Defense

Chiefs – $3,500
Home vs Jags.

Dolphins – $3,100
Off of a bye and home vs Fitzpatrick and the Jets.

ST. LOUIS, MO. November 16, - Wide receiver Kenny Britt #81 of the St. Louis Rams crosses the goal line with a 63 yard touchdown strike to make the score 10-0 in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Edward Jones Dome November 16, 2014 St. Louis, MO (Photo By Joe Amon/The Denver Post)

Week 9 NFL Picks

DENVER BRONCOS VS ST. LOUIS RAMS

15-9 record on the season after a 1-1 week and a push. Big win for me on the Bears Monday night as I bet 5 units and had a nice DFS finish as well in the Sunday night/Monday night Primetime contests. Good luck this week.

Panthers @ Rams

Rams +3
… IT’S A TRAP! Seriously, it is. If you’re not going to bet the Rams then just stay away. Public all over the Panthers but they were horrible all season until last week. I believe we see a similar outcome to the Rams-Seahawks game earlier this season when they won 9-3, which is why this line is so low.

Falcons @ Bucs

Bucs +3.5
Falcons are 2-2 the last 4 games, with all four games being won or lost by 1 score. Tampa Bay has beaten Atlanta already this yeah as well as Carolina, and comes off of a heartbreaking OT loss vs the Raiders. Bucs continue to be a thorn in the Falcons side this week.

Extra Sweat:
Giants -2.5 – Kind of a low/odd line in my opinion but the public is against them and the bye week should help a QB like Eli more than most.

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Week 8 NFL Picks

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14-8 record on the season after a 2-2 week. Another thing I’ve learned so far this season – although the public has already known this for a while – San Francisco is a very poor home team, and Oakland is a very good away team. Here are the plays I like for week 8 NFL.

Chiefs @ Colts

Colts +3
The Colts are a slightly better team than they look, mostly because Andrew Luck who is constantly bashed is a better QB than he looks at the moment too. The Chiefs are a force to be reckoned with at home, and although beating a good Raiders team in Oakland, got lit up in Pittsburgh 43-14 just a couple weeks ago. The Colts open this one up half way through and never look back.

Jets @ Browns

Browns +3
Cleveland wins their first game at home vs a struggling Jets team who play very poorly in other stadiums. Extra value as the line opened at 2 and has slowly moved to 3.

Redskins @ Bengals

Bengals -3
This is the only spot where I am with the public this week, as Washington looks a little inflated to me, Cincinnati can be a very tough place to play, and the Redskins have to travel cross country. Bengals handle them with ease.

Vikings @ Bears

Bears +6
Cutler’s first game back against a tough Vikings team who laid an egg at Phili last week. I look for Vikings’ woes to continue another week or 2 before getting it together. I also think 5.5 point lines tend to be a bettor’s trap, and it’s profitable to bet the dog.

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 8

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I had a profitable week last week, as my 4 biggest plays: Forte, Ajayi, Eagles D, and Goodwin had monsters. Unfortunately all 4 of my QBs got me 10-15 points so I wasn’t able to get more than a small profit. Here are some of my core players for week 8 NFL DFS.

Quarterback

A. Rodgers – $7,500
Super chalk, but at QB that’s okay. Might be a good idea to stack him with 2 WR’s, although it’s tough to pinpoint who will be his favorites this week. GB with no running game should mean big things for Rodgers the next few weeks.

D. Carr – $5,900
He should be chalk, but might not be as there are a lot of better matchups this week, and his 19th OPRK might have him less owned than he should be. He has had two down weeks in a row, but I like a buy here when his stock is low.

J. Winston – $5,700
If you’re looking for a cheap QB play this week, look no further. Should be a pretty popular play, but stacked with Evans and reverse stacked with Crabtree or Cooper is a no brainer.

Running Back

L. Miller – $6,300
I like him this week for similar reasons as I picked Forte last week. Everyone is down on him and he has a tough OPRK. However the Texans like the Jets are going to realize very soon that they have to give their star RB the load, as their QB is not playing great. That’s what happens this week, and Miller can do big things when he gets 30 touches. His questionable tag will have him faded as well, but will very likely play due to the status of his shoulder injury.

D. Booker – $3,700
This guy was a great price even with CJ Anderson playing, but with Anderson out look for huge games from this talented young back who now gets the start.

E. Elliott – $7,200
Should be a low owned stud this week, as the majority of players will be on better matchups. While it’s true the Eagles defense is the real deal, it’s also true that Dallas has the best offensive line in the league. And they rushed it just fine at Green Bay who is the #1 team vs the run.

M. Forte – $6,400
I hit big on him last week having him in almost all of my lineups, and he was less than 1% owned which is ridiculous for a running back. He will be pretty popular this week as his matchup vs the Browns is a great one, and the Jets should stick with what worked for at least a game, much like Miami did with Ajayi.

Wide Receiver

M. Thomas – $5,000
It’s super hard to pinpoint a Saints receiver as Brees spreads it out pretty well. But averaging 8 targets a game and has had a great past 4 weeks. Tough oprk should have him virtually un-owned, and Sherman should be focused on Cooks.

M. Evans – $8,100
Can’t miss with Evans, and he has the great matchup this week too.

T. Williams – $4,700
Rivers really likely this guy and he’s a big red one threat. With Hunter Henry likely out and a #1 OPRK vs Denver, he should be a very unpopular play. Rivers is one of the matchup-proof QBs in this league who can handle a pass rush. I think this matchup suits Williams way more than Benjamin. I predict Williams goes off and is very low owned.

J. Hunter – $3,100
I hit big on Goodwin last week for similar reasons. Goodwin is now on concussion protocol which means he likely missed this week and leaves Hunter as the only WR on the field for Buffalo. That should mean at least 10-12 points with an upside of 20.

Tight End

CJ Fiedorowicz – $2,800
Home vs Detroit who are pitiful vs TE and has had a ton of targets. Big upside for this super cheap play. Will likely be a pretty popular play this week.

G. Barnidge – $3,300
Very consistent 12 points a game and that’s without scoring a TD all season. I look for him to have a big game vs the poor pass defense of the Jets, and should be faded by most players.

A. Gates – $2,700
Hunter Henry is on concussion protocol, which to me means he’s very unlikely to play this week, as NFL have been being true to their word about taking concussions most seriously this year so far. He hasn’t looked great and has a tough OPRK so he will be low owned, and had a nice 2nd half of last week’s game once Henry was gone.

Defense

Patriots – $3,300
At the very banged up Buffalo Bills, they have a good chance at a lot of sacks and take-aways.

Arizona – $2,700
Looks great this year and has playmakers. Playing vs a Carolina team that can’t seem to get it together.

Carolina – $2,900
Off of a bye vs a Zona team that can be a defense’s dream or nightmare.

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 7

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Here are some of my core players for week 7 NFL DFS.

Quarterback

K. Cousins – $5,900
Has everything you want for a QB – Cheap price, 32 OPRK, high total of 49, no running back, and a game that should be a shootout. May be a somewhat popular play but he will be one of my stacks without a doubt.

B. Bortles – $6,200
Home vs the Raiders I like Bortles to put up big numbers and finally re invigorate his two big name receivers.

P. Rivers – $6,500
At the Falcons, this game should be high scoring and Rivers will have to do like he usually does and throw 40 passes to try and keep up, and likely succeed.

M. Stafford – $6,400
Just can’t go wrong with him right now, as he’s throwing 3-4 TDs a game and has another shoot-out type matchup. It helps that his defense is so bad that it usually forces him to stay aggressive all the way to the end of the game.

Running Back

J. Ajayi – $4,500
Will he have a game like last week where he amassed 200 yards and 2 TD’s? No. However he’s a great gamble at this price to get half that or more, as Miami will look to stick with what finally worked, and that’s establish the run and give Ajayi the load.

D. Murray – $7,200
His price dropped to $500 less than last week after his first game with under 20 points all season. Murray has had a stellar season and the Titans will continue to ride him. Grade A matchup home vs the Colts who are a very poor run defense.

M. Forte – $5,000
He’s been forgotten about in DFS, and I want to buy him low and while he’s being faded. Home vs the Ravens and the Vegas line points to a Jets victory, and they certainly can’t seem to do it through Fitzpatrick’s arm or maybe worse, Geno’s.

T. Riddick – $5,200
Back from injury and averaging 6.5 receptions a game on top of 10 rushing attempts, Riddick is a big-time playmaker. This game is a high total and riddick is the type of player who usually pays for himself and has pretty big upside.

Wide Receiver

D. Jackson – $5,700
I love Jackson to make a big return this week with his great matchup vs Detroit.

A. Robinson – $7,300
Has been quiet for a while but should finally have a 20 pt + game this week vs the poor pass defense of Oakland.

M. Jones – $7,000
Did I mention I like the Detroit – Redskins game? I like all of their WR’s but I’m going to buy Jones while people are down on him.

J. Maclin – $6,700
Has certainly been a bust so far but has the matchup of the year this week home vs the Saints.

K. Wright – $3,700
There are a few cheap WR’s that have good value right now in the league, but this week I like Kendall Wright the most as he’s coming off of a huge 30 point fantasy game and home vs the Colts.

Tight End

J. Reed – $6,000
If he goes, he’ll be the best TE this week.

J. Thomas – $3,900
Somewhat of a sneak play, as he hasn’t done much so far this season. He does get about 5-6 targets a game and has a great matchup vs Oakland though who has been one of the worst defenses vs the tight end the last 2 years.

T. Kelce – $5,300
Home vs the Saints so I love KC players. Especially Kelce who although is pretty consistent did have his worst game last week. Hopefully that will make the public shy away from him in a spot where they should be buying.

H. Henry – $3,600
Four quality fantasy games in a row and he’s still at $3,600? With his price, production, and matchup vs the Falcons I will be playing him.

Defense

Eagles – $3,100
Defense and special teams has playmakers who score TD’s, and they held Pitt to 3 points in Phili just a couple weeks ago.

49ers – $2,500
Home vs Bucs who have potential to lay an egg and make critical errors. I like the 49ers to win the game with a dlis defensive effort, even with TB off of a bye.

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Week 7 NFL Picks

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12-6 record so far this season after a 2-1 week. I like a quite a few games this week, and here are my favorite plays for NFL week 7.

Vikings @ Eagles

Eagles +2.5
Minnesota off of a bye, which makes them an even heavier public favorite than they should be. Eagles still a great team at home (dismantling the Steelers) and a decent but struggling team away, with close losses to Detroit and division rival Redskins. Scary game to bet, as Minnesota’s defense is tops in the league and has had 2 weeks to prepare for rookie Wentz, but I’m going against the grain in this spot.

Raiders @ Jaguars

Jaguars +1
Raiders traveling across the country to play a struggling Jaguars team. Only problem is the Raiders are 3-0 away this year, and all the games were on the east coast: Saints, Titans, and Ravens. Two of these games however, were 1 point victories. Jags win a close one at the end in what could be a shootout.

Bucs @ 49ers

49ers +2
San Fran looks about as bad as it gets right now, but that was to be expected with Kap playing at Buffalo in his first game back. Bucs off a bye and have been a small public favorite this year, after beating Atlanta and Carolina. I’m going to fade the trap and bet that Kap has a much better game two, home vs a much worse defense. I also expect Hyde to have a pretty big game as the 49ers look to pound the ground all day. Buyer beware: San Fran has been the team that has burned me this season twice.

Chargers @ Falcons

Chargers +7
The only away team I like this week in this fantasy footballer’s wet dream of a matchup. I think the line is perfect, but can’t help but bet the Chargers who have 3 of their losses by 1, 3, and 4 points as well as their 4th loss by 6 in OT. This trend continues from last year and is part of their basic makeup as a team that is in almost every game at the end, due to their subpar defense and great QB. I look for this game to go the same way.

Extra Sweat:
Dolphins +3: Home dog getting 3 points in a division rivalry is usually a bet, but the Bills have McCoy and Miami is poor against the run. I might put a unit or less on the Fins though as I believe the situation dictates it.

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 6

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Here are some of my core players for week 6 NFL DFS.

Quarterback

R. Wilson – $6,900
At home vs Atlanta, I look for Seattle to put up a lot of points, as Atlanta is one of the best offenses and the worst defenses in the league. Stack with Graham or Baldwin.

B. Roethlisberger – $7,500
Big Ben should be the most expensive QB in the league by now but still is not. Although he will likely be high owned, playing at Miami is way too attractive to pass up this week. I would stack him with Brown or Coates and reverse stack with DeVonte Parker.

T. Taylor – $5,300
He’s super cheap, no one is looking at him, and he’s at home vs the lowly 49ers. He’s had a few enormous games in the past, and gambling on him this week might differentiate your lineup from the rest.

Running Back

L. McCoy – $6,900
Having a great season and gets the touches. Big receiving threat and has a great matchup. He is slightly underpriced right now, but if he has another big game we wont see him under $7,000 again anytime soon.

D. Murray – $7,700
I have been riding him all year and he has been big for me. At this price I’m starting to get a little wary, but he has an amazing matchup vs the Browns. He also has been getting 25+ carries the last 2 games, 5 receptions, and remains a goal line threat. I’ll bite.

CJ Spiller – $3,400
Major gamble here, as it’s only his 2nd week back and had very limited production in that game. But I think it’s very possible he steps up big, cutting into Christine Michael’s production significantly. I wouldn’t load him in all of my lineups, but I’ll fit him into a few.

J. Howard – $6,200
The Bears love this guy, and he’s had 3 good fantasy games in a row, getting better with each. Great matchup at home vs Jags.

Wide Receiver

D. Baldwin – $6,500
Hit or miss with him, but due to the matchup I like a huge game this week vs the high flying/weak defense Falcons.

A. Hurns – $4,700
Down from $5,800 and gets the targets. Decent floor with a pretty high ceiling at a more than fair price.

J. Kerley – $4,000
The 49ers may have found their go-to receiver in Kerley, as his production has been rising every game including the last two which he had 9 and 13 targets for 21 and 28 fantast points. A steal at this price right now.

B. LaFell – $3,200
Last 4 games: 8, 3, 6, 11 targets. That last game he also had 26 fantasy points. I’ll gamble on him right now.

D. Parker – $5,000
Miami is 8 point home dogs, so if Pitt gets up big Miami will have to play catchup. I’m gambling on the lower owned and higher ceiling wideout of Miami’s.

Tight End

J. Graham – $4,900
Playing great football right now, and getting into rythym with Wilson. Did I mention I like Seattle this week?

C. Clay – $2,900
Although the Bills don’t seem to use him nearly as much as they should, his targets have picked up to 5-7 a game now, which makes him a decent gamble at $2,900 for someone who will be almost un-owned.

Defense

Titans – $3,300
At home vs Cleveland and seem to be racking in the sacks which is big for DFS.

Texans – $2,900
Playing the Colts at home which seems risky, but Luck is getting sacked just over 5 times a game and his gambly nature could always lead to defensive points. Should be very low owned.

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Week 6 NFL Picks

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10-5 record on the season. Went 1-2 last week, but won my big bet with the Lions covering +3 at home vs the Eagles, so I can’t complain too much. Here are my picks for week 6.

Eagles @ Redskins

Redskins +3
I would bet contrary to this in a lot of spots, as the Eagles lost and Redskins won last week. However the public is 76% on Eagles thus far, moving the line to from 2 to 3. I also like the Skins here because they are playing home vs a division rival, which usually means a cover for a small home dog.

Falcons @ Seahawks

Seahawks -5.5
I don’t often bet on the team that is off of a bye as I believe it hurts a lot of teams more than it helps, and it’s a somewhat of a bettor’s trap. I do believe however that bye weeks help really good teams, teams like the Seahawks. They needed a rest to get healthier and are coming off of a few big games. Seattle stays hot and brings Atlanta back down to earth in a big way.

Broncos @ Chargers

Chargers +3
Thursday night football and the San Diego Chargers; two things I hate betting on. But like my first bet, I love betting small home dogs in division rivalries. Especially when the public is all over the better/away team. I am definitely wary of this bet, as its against the best defense in the league. I will likely bet 1 unit or less here.

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 5

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Had a few min-cashes last week, but since I didn’t have Big Ben, Julio, or Matt Ryan in any of my big lineups, it was a losing week of DFS.

Here are a few of my core DraftKings players for NFL week 5 daily fantasy.

Quarterbacks

M. Stafford – $6,600
When these two teams met last year, Stafford had the best game of his career, scoring 5 TDs and 350 yards. That stat coupled with his price make him my favorite play at QB this week. I also don’t mind his OPRK of #1, as this is a stat based on just 3 games, and will have the masses fading him.

R. Fitzpatrick – $5,100
Huge upside here as he is playing at Pittsburg and may be forced to keep up with a high scoring Steeler offense. Fitz matches up well vs Pitt defense, unlike Alex Smith of last week, as he can get the ball down the field with ease. Due to his recent terrible games, Fitzpatrick is at a steal of a price and will be lower owned than he should be.

Running Backs

CJ Anderson – $6,900
Home vs the Falcons who are a very poor defense, and the hottest offense in the league. This should equate to Anderson running the ball a lot, in hopes to keep Matt Ryan and crew off the field. Anderson having a solid season thus far as well.

T. West – $4,800
Has the official nod now as the starter over Forsett, and the matchup home vs the Redskins. Get him while he’s still cheap.

L. McCoy – $6,600
One of the few away RBs I like this week, but the Bills are using him like crazy this year, and he is showing up. Bills also without a lot of weapons and may force McCoy the ball for the next few weeks at least.

L. Murray – $4,200
Home vs San Diego should be the perfect week to finally get this beast back going. It’s not that he hasn’t been playing well, the Raiders just haven’t been using him. I look for that to change this week while people look the other way.

L. Blount – $5,600
Terrible week 4, but I think it’s worth starting him here at Cleveland, as Brady’s return could mean big things for him, and most people will be fading him and playing Brady.

Wide Receivers

B. Marshall – $7,100
I expect a huge week from him and Fitzpatrick, as they try to prove themselves as well as keep up with the fast Steeler offense. Decker still out as well.

D. Amendola – $3,900
Brady’s return could mean big things for anybody and everybody. I’m going to gamble on Amendola on the first game back though, as not only is his price hilarious for his upside, but Brady and him began to find their rhythm mid-late last season.

A. Boldin – $4,000
Getting more than enough targets and receptions to justify this price tag, and this is continuing the thought of Stafford having a huge game against the Eagles due to his past performance.

S. Smith – $5,300
Starting to come back in a big way and has the matchup. High floor here while waiting for a patented Steve Smith 150 yard and 2 TD game.

Tight Ends

H. Henry – $3,300
Playing vs the Raiders so he’s a great matchup, but also now Charger’s/River’s #1 tight end with Gates out. Look for him to have big games because of that, like Ladarius Green of last year in the same situation.

Defense

Dolphins – $2,900
49ers – $2,600

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Week 5 NFL Picks

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9-3 start to the season although a tough week last week, going 1-3 to halt my 8-0 streak. I don’t dislike last week’s bets for the most part, but I do think I made a mistake on betting against the best defense in the league in Denver. I think that even when the indicators are there, it’s still better to stay away.

Onward, here are my picks for week 5.

Eagles @ Lions

Lions +3
Eagles a big public play, and coming off of a bye. But when these two teams met last year, Stafford threw for 350 and 5 TDs in a 48-14 route. The Eagles defense hasn’t changed a whole lot since then, so I’m going against the public and with history.

Titans @ Dolphins

Dolphins -3.5
Miami has looked pretty bad, and so have the Titans. This will be Miami’s second home game this season, the first being two weeks ago vs the Browns where they stumbled but showed flashes of offensive explosiveness in their 6 point win. Their defense also had 3 huge plays, 2 picks and a fumble, get called back due to penalties.

Cardinals @ 49ers

49ers +3
San Francisco started off hot last week going up 14-0 against Dallas, but allowed them to creep back while going stagnant offensively in the second half. The Cowboys basically proved that even with injuries, their offensive line is still likely the best in the league. The same can not be said about Arizona, and now Carson Palmer is sitting. It could get ugly in Candlestick.

Honorable Mentions
Jets +7
Cowboys +1