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Week 4 NFL Picks

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8-0 on the season thus far. 4-0 last week and came oh-so-close to a DFS victory in the $100k. Here are my picks for week 4.

Broncos @ Bucs

Bucs +3
This line would seem to make more sense at Broncos -6, not 3. The public is all over Denver 92% early in the week. I believe Winston plays well vs this tough defense, Siemian has a tough one, and Bucs win it at the end.

Colts @ Jags

Jags +2.5
I feel like this line has been Jags +2 every year since the Peyton Manning days in Indy. And somehow the Colts always win by 1. Vegas knows what they’re doing as usual, Jags cover at home, and the public falls flat.

Rams @ Cardinals

Cardinals -9
I like the Cardinals to bounce back after a tough away loss and embarrass the Rams in Arizona. The low total and large spread signifies a strong defensive performance by Arizona in a convincing win. Let’s call it 27-10.

Cowboys @ 49ers

49ers +3
Dallas playing well and 49ers look like the pits. I have a feeling we see the 49ers from week 1 vs the Rams this week though, and their defense hands it to Dallas and Prescott.

Honorable Mentions
Baltimore -3.5
Bears +3

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 4

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Big sweat in week 3 while I was 1st place in the $4 $100k on Draftkings until 5 minutes left in the afternoon games when I managed to slip to 18th. I also went 4-0 on my sports picks which made for a very profitable Sunday.

Here are a few of my core DraftKings players for NFL week 4 daily fantasy.

Quarterbacks

B. Bortles – $6,400
Home vs the Colts in what should be a high scoring game. Bortles has 40, 40, and 50 attempts in his first 3 games, and I look for him to dial it in this week to get the yardage and TDs that should follow that attempt volume.

P. Rivers – $6,900
This will likely be a popular pick but he’s got the matchup of the year for him home vs the Saints, who just let up 45 points to Atlanta, and make every offense they play look like the ’07 Patriots.

K. Cousins – $6,500
Home vs the Browns who have a very weak pass defense, Cousins is playing well. He is at a good price right now, down from $7,400 where he started the season. He is just starting to get in rhythm and has a ton of attempts per game.

J. Flacco – $5,900
He’s vs the Raiders, need we say more? Okay, also at a $1,000 price break right now down from $6,900.

Running Backs

M. Gordon – $6,300
Like Rivers, Gordon gets the benefit of playing vs the god awful Saints defense at home this week. Now the sole back since Woodhead’s season ending injury, he is seeing quite a few receptions as well. I faded him so far this year and all last season, but not in this spot.

L. Blount – $5,000
What a season Blount has had so far. One more game until Brady is back and at home vs division rival Buffalo, I can’t imagine Blount not getting another 25+ carries. Pats o-line is playing lights out, and Blount is ridiculously cheap for his production right now.

D. Murray – $6,800
Not crazy about his new high price, or that he is away vs a decent defense. However he’s getting 6 receptions and 15+ carries a game, and is a goal line threat. Titans are using him right now, and while he’s hot, so will I. Tough matchup, away, and OPRK will have him overlooked this week.

J. Forsett – $3,800
Man do I hate this guy. But I just have to gamble on him this week because he is seeing a lot of receptions, and he’s got the matchup home vs Oakland. Not to mention he’s super cheap and will be faded more than the last few weeks due to his poor start to the season.

Wide Receivers

A. Hurns – $4,800
High total in a should-be shootout. I look at Jags to show up big in the pass game and win. I love Hurns’ value at this price, considering Allen Robinson is $8,000 and only gets a few more targets.

TY Hilton – $7,000
Same story here with the total and shootout. Hilton down from $7,500, even after a big game and has gotten 11, 11, and 12 targets.

J. Landry – $6,900
This game may be high scoring, but what will almost definitely happen is Landry getting his average of 12 targets. One of the most popular plays out there right now every week, but for a good reason.

Tight Ends

C. Fleener – $3,200
This f***ing guy. He let me down the first 2 weeks, but I’m going back to him. Way too good of a price and the ball goes his way a lot, he just needs to catch it. Coming off a solid game in Atlanta, this value is just too high to pass up.

G. Olsen – $6,000
So hard to pick the right TE in dfs, never bad to play this guy with the 9-10 targets he gets on the high powered Carolina offense.

Defense

Buccaneers – $2,600
Value play. Home vs Denver, and likely will not be owned hardly at all. The vegas line and total here says a lot. I think the Bucs win and Siemian has a rough one.

I also like Redskins, Cardinals, and NYJ defenses.

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 3

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Here are a few of my core DraftKings players for NFL week 3 daily fantasy.

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson – $7,100
Should be off the radar for most people this week after a pretty bad first 2 weeks. I think he finally shows up though at home vs a poor SF team. Seattle defense should give Wilson great field position throughout the game. I think Seattle kills here 30-7 and Wilson has a game. I wouldn’t worry about stacking him because he can spread the ball out, Baldwin is questionable, and he can run them in as well. I may stack him in a few lineups with Jimmy Graham.

E. Manning – $7,000
I like the Giants offense to show up this week after after a subpar first two weeks, at home vs a weak Washington pass defense. Eli and Odell finally go off big.

M. Stafford – $6,800
Playing at Green Bay will be tough, but this game has the makings of a shootout. Stafford brings it vs the 16th ranked pass defense of GB. Should be overlooked and low owned as well.

M. Mariota – $5,900
I liked this guy as a sneak play last week and it did not really pan out. This week more people will be drafting him as he’s against Oakland who has a terrible pass defense. I’m going to go with him one more week and stack him with Walker.

Running Backs

E. Elliott – $6,900
Down from $7,400, Elliott is getting 25+ touches a game, and will no doubt break out sometime this year. This is a very good chance for him to do so. At home vs the Bears, Elliott continues his trend of at least 1 TD per game, but this time has big time yardage to add.

D. Murray – $6,300
Home vs Oakland should be a good spot to get Murray back to his old self. Look for him to get more than his usual 15 rush attempts and you can always count on him for receptions, 7 targets a game so far.

F. Gore – $5,000
I can’t believe it’s come to this, but Im going with Frank Gore this week. Great matchup at home, and is still the #1 guy. Has a nose for the end zone and big plays, the Chargers are the perfect defense to give Gore one more big game. Indy will likely chew up clock if they get up a little as well, to keep a hot Rivers off the field.

TJ Yeldon – $5,600
Hard to believe but after 2 weeks of doing next to nothing, Yeldon’s price has gone up from $4,100 to $5,600. Someone knows something, and since it’s not me I’m going to gamble on it.

J. Ajayi – $4,000
Sneak play. I’m a Miami fan and dislike this guy for the most part, but he’s a good gamble this week. Arian Foster is banged up and will likely not play, and Miami is 9 point favorites at home vs the Browns. He finally gets his chance this week while he’s cheap and overlooked.

Wide Receivers

O. Beckham – $9,100
Price has gone down $400, and as I said earlier I think the Giants could blow up this week.

J. Nelson – $7,400
Green Bay offense bounces back this week at home vs a weak Detroit defense in what could be a shootout. I lean Nelson over Cobb because they are the same price but Nelson is getting 2-3 more targets a game, and is a slightly more big play threat.

S. Watkins – $6,100
Home vs Arizona who is 25th vs WR, I think this could be a high scoring game and Watkins should be one of the main beneficiaries.

D. Jackson – $5,900
Giants defense has looked good this year in the first two games, but I don’t think they’re as great as they seem just yet. This game is going to get up there, and Jackson should get his points whether ahead or behind.

M. Wallace – $5,000
I liked him the first 2 weeks at $4,700, and I like him now.

Tight Ends

D. Walker – $5,000
Home vs Oakland, this guy should be a very popular play, but TE is very thin. I think you have to play this guy.

J. Graham – $3,000
A great sneak play, and a great time for this guy to remind us that he’s still alive, home vs the SF 49ers. I predict a big game for him and Wilson.

Defense

Seattle – $4,100
Sometimes you just gotta pay the price and pick the chalk play. I will be doing that with team defenses quite a bit as it does seem to work for that position. Seattle home vs 49ers and Gabbert.

Dolphins – $3,000
9 point favorites at home vs the Browns. A big chance for Miami’s high paid defense shows up for some defensive TDs.

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NFL DFS LINEUPS – WEEK 2

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Here are a few of my core DraftKings players for NFL week 2 daily fantasy.

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer – $6,900
My favorite play at QB this week, Palmer has a low price and a great matchup, and people aren’t too high on him at the moment so he will likely be lower drafted than the top tier guys this week, with just as much upside if not more. Great matchup at home vs Bucs defense who are poor vs QB.

D. Carr – $7,200
Could be another shoot em up in Oakland, with Atlanta traveling across country. With a 7th OPRK, as well as Brees playing Eli, Carr will be very undervalued this week.

M. Mariotta – $6,000
Somewhat of a sneak/value play this week, he plays at Detroit who looks like they may be getting in high scoring shootouts pretty often this year. Mariotta has big game potential and the right matchup on the road.

D. Brees – $8,200 & Eli Manning – $7,800
Both of these guys are obviously great picks this week, as its a huge total, two great QBs, and two horrible pass defenses. However they are expensive and will be very popular and high owned.

Running Backs

D. Johnson – $7,600
The most expensive play this week for RB, but for good reason. Home vs the Bucs and looking very strong.

CJ Anderson – $6,800
Home vs the Colts, we should see a big game out of him as Siemian (who looks good) will look to keep it on the ground and out of Luck’s hands. Colts defense is by no means great, but are only 20th OPRK so people might forget about Anderson this week.

L. Murray – $5,700
This guy looks great and if he keeps improving and Oakland turns into the real deal, you wont see him below 7k. Buy him low right now with a good matchup at home vs the Falcons.

Wide Receivers

O. Beckham – $9,500
If you want to spend this week on WR, spend here. These two teams might score 100 points this week.

AJ Green – $8,900
A first tier wideout with huge potential and a good matchup. With the other matchups out there, he will be slightly over looked in a game where he could be forced to go off vs a high powered Steelers offense.

M. Crabtree – $6,100
Home vs Atlanta, Crabtree is vs the #1 OPRK this week, which will no doubt leave him faded and forgotten about this week. But WR2 OPRK can be misleading, and the Raiders look very good and will play a relatively weak Atlanta defense traveling a veyy long way.

E. Sanders – $6,000
Siemian looked good, and he seemed to excel in the over the middle short routes as well as broken plays. These are both areas that Sanders excels in as well. We’ll see if he and Thomas pan out this year with their new QB, but I will gamble on him now while most people are looking elsewhere.

M. Wallace – $4,700
I like Wallace this year and he came through for me in week 1. I think as the season progresses he and Flacco could hit it off. I’ll gamble on him now with a great matchup (30th OPRK at the Browns).

Tight Ends

C. Fleener – $3,900
This was a big fail for me last week, but I’m not giving up on him. Not when Brees spreads the ball out as much as he does. Not when he’s one of the cheapest TE’s on the board this week. And certainly not with the matchup vs the pass defense/terrible TE defense.

Defense

Redskins – $2,800
Redskins are home vs the Cowboys who look like they could be in for a long, awful season. Skins DEF is middle of the pack price wise, so a good deal and also might be undervalued, though probably not by much.

Panthers – $3,900
This is the obvious play of the week here, with Carolina looking to bounce back and humiliate a rickety SF team traveling across country on a short week. This will be a very popular play this week.

Divisional Playoffs - Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos

NFL Playoff Picks – Conference Championship Bets

Divisional Playoffs - Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos

Patriots @ Broncos

Broncos +3
I hate betting against Brady, Bellichek, and the Pats. But I think that NE’s last regular season loss vs Miami, which decided who would have home field in this week’s matchup, is going to come back to haunt them.

Denver has the best defense in the league, and aside from last week, the Pats have been struggling against significant pass rushes when away. I see Denver winning this game but it should be close either way, which is why I like taking the points. Public heavy on Pats as well, which is always nice to go against.