ST. LOUIS, MO. November 16, - Wide receiver Kenny Britt #81 of the St. Louis Rams crosses the goal line with a 63 yard touchdown strike to make the score 10-0 in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Edward Jones Dome November 16, 2014 St. Louis, MO (Photo By Joe Amon/The Denver Post)

Week 9 NFL Picks


15-9 record on the season after a 1-1 week and a push. Big win for me on the Bears Monday night as I bet 5 units and had a nice DFS finish as well in the Sunday night/Monday night Primetime contests. Good luck this week.

Panthers @ Rams

Rams +3
… IT’S A TRAP! Seriously, it is. If you’re not going to bet the Rams then just stay away. Public all over the Panthers but they were horrible all season until last week. I believe we see a similar outcome to the Rams-Seahawks game earlier this season when they won 9-3, which is why this line is so low.

Falcons @ Bucs

Bucs +3.5
Falcons are 2-2 the last 4 games, with all four games being won or lost by 1 score. Tampa Bay has beaten Atlanta already this yeah as well as Carolina, and comes off of a heartbreaking OT loss vs the Raiders. Bucs continue to be a thorn in the Falcons side this week.

Extra Sweat:
Giants -2.5 – Kind of a low/odd line in my opinion but the public is against them and the bye week should help a QB like Eli more than most.


Week 8 NFL Picks


14-8 record on the season after a 2-2 week. Another thing I’ve learned so far this season – although the public has already known this for a while – San Francisco is a very poor home team, and Oakland is a very good away team. Here are the plays I like for week 8 NFL.

Chiefs @ Colts

Colts +3
The Colts are a slightly better team than they look, mostly because Andrew Luck who is constantly bashed is a better QB than he looks at the moment too. The Chiefs are a force to be reckoned with at home, and although beating a good Raiders team in Oakland, got lit up in Pittsburgh 43-14 just a couple weeks ago. The Colts open this one up half way through and never look back.

Jets @ Browns

Browns +3
Cleveland wins their first game at home vs a struggling Jets team who play very poorly in other stadiums. Extra value as the line opened at 2 and has slowly moved to 3.

Redskins @ Bengals

Bengals -3
This is the only spot where I am with the public this week, as Washington looks a little inflated to me, Cincinnati can be a very tough place to play, and the Redskins have to travel cross country. Bengals handle them with ease.

Vikings @ Bears

Bears +6
Cutler’s first game back against a tough Vikings team who laid an egg at Phili last week. I look for Vikings’ woes to continue another week or 2 before getting it together. I also think 5.5 point lines tend to be a bettor’s trap, and it’s profitable to bet the dog.


Week 7 NFL Picks


12-6 record so far this season after a 2-1 week. I like a quite a few games this week, and here are my favorite plays for NFL week 7.

Vikings @ Eagles

Eagles +2.5
Minnesota off of a bye, which makes them an even heavier public favorite than they should be. Eagles still a great team at home (dismantling the Steelers) and a decent but struggling team away, with close losses to Detroit and division rival Redskins. Scary game to bet, as Minnesota’s defense is tops in the league and has had 2 weeks to prepare for rookie Wentz, but I’m going against the grain in this spot.

Raiders @ Jaguars

Jaguars +1
Raiders traveling across the country to play a struggling Jaguars team. Only problem is the Raiders are 3-0 away this year, and all the games were on the east coast: Saints, Titans, and Ravens. Two of these games however, were 1 point victories. Jags win a close one at the end in what could be a shootout.

Bucs @ 49ers

49ers +2
San Fran looks about as bad as it gets right now, but that was to be expected with Kap playing at Buffalo in his first game back. Bucs off a bye and have been a small public favorite this year, after beating Atlanta and Carolina. I’m going to fade the trap and bet that Kap has a much better game two, home vs a much worse defense. I also expect Hyde to have a pretty big game as the 49ers look to pound the ground all day. Buyer beware: San Fran has been the team that has burned me this season twice.

Chargers @ Falcons

Chargers +7
The only away team I like this week in this fantasy footballer’s wet dream of a matchup. I think the line is perfect, but can’t help but bet the Chargers who have 3 of their losses by 1, 3, and 4 points as well as their 4th loss by 6 in OT. This trend continues from last year and is part of their basic makeup as a team that is in almost every game at the end, due to their subpar defense and great QB. I look for this game to go the same way.

Extra Sweat:
Dolphins +3: Home dog getting 3 points in a division rivalry is usually a bet, but the Bills have McCoy and Miami is poor against the run. I might put a unit or less on the Fins though as I believe the situation dictates it.


Week 6 NFL Picks


10-5 record on the season. Went 1-2 last week, but won my big bet with the Lions covering +3 at home vs the Eagles, so I can’t complain too much. Here are my picks for week 6.

Eagles @ Redskins

Redskins +3
I would bet contrary to this in a lot of spots, as the Eagles lost and Redskins won last week. However the public is 76% on Eagles thus far, moving the line to from 2 to 3. I also like the Skins here because they are playing home vs a division rival, which usually means a cover for a small home dog.

Falcons @ Seahawks

Seahawks -5.5
I don’t often bet on the team that is off of a bye as I believe it hurts a lot of teams more than it helps, and it’s a somewhat of a bettor’s trap. I do believe however that bye weeks help really good teams, teams like the Seahawks. They needed a rest to get healthier and are coming off of a few big games. Seattle stays hot and brings Atlanta back down to earth in a big way.

Broncos @ Chargers

Chargers +3
Thursday night football and the San Diego Chargers; two things I hate betting on. But like my first bet, I love betting small home dogs in division rivalries. Especially when the public is all over the better/away team. I am definitely wary of this bet, as its against the best defense in the league. I will likely bet 1 unit or less here.


Week 5 NFL Picks


9-3 start to the season although a tough week last week, going 1-3 to halt my 8-0 streak. I don’t dislike last week’s bets for the most part, but I do think I made a mistake on betting against the best defense in the league in Denver. I think that even when the indicators are there, it’s still better to stay away.

Onward, here are my picks for week 5.

Eagles @ Lions

Lions +3
Eagles a big public play, and coming off of a bye. But when these two teams met last year, Stafford threw for 350 and 5 TDs in a 48-14 route. The Eagles defense hasn’t changed a whole lot since then, so I’m going against the public and with history.

Titans @ Dolphins

Dolphins -3.5
Miami has looked pretty bad, and so have the Titans. This will be Miami’s second home game this season, the first being two weeks ago vs the Browns where they stumbled but showed flashes of offensive explosiveness in their 6 point win. Their defense also had 3 huge plays, 2 picks and a fumble, get called back due to penalties.

Cardinals @ 49ers

49ers +3
San Francisco started off hot last week going up 14-0 against Dallas, but allowed them to creep back while going stagnant offensively in the second half. The Cowboys basically proved that even with injuries, their offensive line is still likely the best in the league. The same can not be said about Arizona, and now Carson Palmer is sitting. It could get ugly in Candlestick.

Honorable Mentions
Jets +7
Cowboys +1


Week 4 NFL Picks


8-0 on the season thus far. 4-0 last week and came oh-so-close to a DFS victory in the $100k. Here are my picks for week 4.

Broncos @ Bucs

Bucs +3
This line would seem to make more sense at Broncos -6, not 3. The public is all over Denver 92% early in the week. I believe Winston plays well vs this tough defense, Siemian has a tough one, and Bucs win it at the end.

Colts @ Jags

Jags +2.5
I feel like this line has been Jags +2 every year since the Peyton Manning days in Indy. And somehow the Colts always win by 1. Vegas knows what they’re doing as usual, Jags cover at home, and the public falls flat.

Rams @ Cardinals

Cardinals -9
I like the Cardinals to bounce back after a tough away loss and embarrass the Rams in Arizona. The low total and large spread signifies a strong defensive performance by Arizona in a convincing win. Let’s call it 27-10.

Cowboys @ 49ers

49ers +3
Dallas playing well and 49ers look like the pits. I have a feeling we see the 49ers from week 1 vs the Rams this week though, and their defense hands it to Dallas and Prescott.

Honorable Mentions
Baltimore -3.5
Bears +3


Week 3 NFL Picks


4-0 on the season thus far. 2-0 last week with Vikings and Rams. Here are my picks for week 3.

Cardinals @ Bills

Bills +4
The public is over 80% on the high flying Cardinals, but they are flying cross-country to play a tough Bills defense. The Bills will play Arizona close; I see them winning this one outright a lot here as the gambly Ryan brothers could easily put together a scheme that gets to Palmer all game.

Steelers @ Eagles

Eagles +3.5
A short trip for Pitt, but a tough stadium to play in vs a confident Eagles team coming home after a big win in Chicago. This game should stay close until the very end, and Pitt wins by a point.

Chargers @ Colts

Colts -3
It’s rare that I follow the public, but this week the public is on the Colts 65% and so am I. The Colts don’t look great and San Diego looks like world beaters. Bettors have short memories though, and I think both teams snap back to their true value this game and Colts win convincingly.

Jets @ Chiefs

Chiefs -3
Are we forgetting how good Andy Reid and the Chiefs are so quickly? KC shows up huge in arrowhead and brings Fitzpatrick and the Jets back down to earth.

Honorable Mentions
Panthers/Vikings over 43
Packers -7
49ers/Seahawks under 40.5


Week 2 NFL Picks

2-0 in week 1 betting the Jets and SF. Here are my picks for week 2 NFL 2016. Good luck!

Packers @ Vikings

Vikings +2.5
If this line is at 3 anywhere I would snap it up. Tough betting the +2.5 but this line should be way higher. Public over 80% on the super favorite GB Packers, but look for Minnesota to give GB hell as always and Rodgers to struggle.

Seahawks @ Rams

Rams +6.5
The Rams looked terrible week 1 but played a very tough away game in SF. Now the Seahawks who also struggled at home vs a bad Miami team will be away vs a very tough defense and a hobbled Russell Wilson. This game stays close.

Divisional Playoffs - Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos

NFL Playoff Picks – Conference Championship Bets

Divisional Playoffs - Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos

Patriots @ Broncos

Broncos +3
I hate betting against Brady, Bellichek, and the Pats. But I think that NE’s last regular season loss vs Miami, which decided who would have home field in this week’s matchup, is going to come back to haunt them.

Denver has the best defense in the league, and aside from last week, the Pats have been struggling against significant pass rushes when away. I see Denver winning this game but it should be close either way, which is why I like taking the points. Public heavy on Pats as well, which is always nice to go against.

NFL Playoff Picks – Round 2 Bets

Seahawks @ Panthers

Seahawks +3
Here is where we find out if Carolina is the real deal, which it appears to me that they are. Seattle is clicking at the right time, and Russell Wilson is playing like the champion he is. But even with this being the case, if Carolina is the powerhouse that they appear to be, then they should be bigger favorites than by 3 points, plain and simple. The line is way too low, and the public is on Carolina 71% at the moment. Vegas clearly thinks Seattle has the edge here, which is why I think they’re the best play this weekend.

Make sure to line shop this one no matter which way you bet, and try to find that huge 1/2 point difference.