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Week 6 NFL Picks

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10-5 record on the season. Went 1-2 last week, but won my big bet with the Lions covering +3 at home vs the Eagles, so I can’t complain too much. Here are my picks for week 6.

Eagles @ Redskins

Redskins +3
I would bet contrary to this in a lot of spots, as the Eagles lost and Redskins won last week. However the public is 76% on Eagles thus far, moving the line to from 2 to 3. I also like the Skins here because they are playing home vs a division rival, which usually means a cover for a small home dog.

Falcons @ Seahawks

Seahawks -5.5
I don’t often bet on the team that is off of a bye as I believe it hurts a lot of teams more than it helps, and it’s a somewhat of a bettor’s trap. I do believe however that bye weeks help really good teams, teams like the Seahawks. They needed a rest to get healthier and are coming off of a few big games. Seattle stays hot and brings Atlanta back down to earth in a big way.

Broncos @ Chargers

Chargers +3
Thursday night football and the San Diego Chargers; two things I hate betting on. But like my first bet, I love betting small home dogs in division rivalries. Especially when the public is all over the better/away team. I am definitely wary of this bet, as its against the best defense in the league. I will likely bet 1 unit or less here.

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Week 5 NFL Picks

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9-3 start to the season although a tough week last week, going 1-3 to halt my 8-0 streak. I don’t dislike last week’s bets for the most part, but I do think I made a mistake on betting against the best defense in the league in Denver. I think that even when the indicators are there, it’s still better to stay away.

Onward, here are my picks for week 5.

Eagles @ Lions

Lions +3
Eagles a big public play, and coming off of a bye. But when these two teams met last year, Stafford threw for 350 and 5 TDs in a 48-14 route. The Eagles defense hasn’t changed a whole lot since then, so I’m going against the public and with history.

Titans @ Dolphins

Dolphins -3.5
Miami has looked pretty bad, and so have the Titans. This will be Miami’s second home game this season, the first being two weeks ago vs the Browns where they stumbled but showed flashes of offensive explosiveness in their 6 point win. Their defense also had 3 huge plays, 2 picks and a fumble, get called back due to penalties.

Cardinals @ 49ers

49ers +3
San Francisco started off hot last week going up 14-0 against Dallas, but allowed them to creep back while going stagnant offensively in the second half. The Cowboys basically proved that even with injuries, their offensive line is still likely the best in the league. The same can not be said about Arizona, and now Carson Palmer is sitting. It could get ugly in Candlestick.

Honorable Mentions
Jets +7
Cowboys +1

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Week 4 NFL Picks

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8-0 on the season thus far. 4-0 last week and came oh-so-close to a DFS victory in the $100k. Here are my picks for week 4.

Broncos @ Bucs

Bucs +3
This line would seem to make more sense at Broncos -6, not 3. The public is all over Denver 92% early in the week. I believe Winston plays well vs this tough defense, Siemian has a tough one, and Bucs win it at the end.

Colts @ Jags

Jags +2.5
I feel like this line has been Jags +2 every year since the Peyton Manning days in Indy. And somehow the Colts always win by 1. Vegas knows what they’re doing as usual, Jags cover at home, and the public falls flat.

Rams @ Cardinals

Cardinals -9
I like the Cardinals to bounce back after a tough away loss and embarrass the Rams in Arizona. The low total and large spread signifies a strong defensive performance by Arizona in a convincing win. Let’s call it 27-10.

Cowboys @ 49ers

49ers +3
Dallas playing well and 49ers look like the pits. I have a feeling we see the 49ers from week 1 vs the Rams this week though, and their defense hands it to Dallas and Prescott.

Honorable Mentions
Baltimore -3.5
Bears +3