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Week 6 NFL Picks

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10-5 record on the season. Went 1-2 last week, but won my big bet with the Lions covering +3 at home vs the Eagles, so I can’t complain too much. Here are my picks for week 6.

Eagles @ Redskins

Redskins +3
I would bet contrary to this in a lot of spots, as the Eagles lost and Redskins won last week. However the public is 76% on Eagles thus far, moving the line to from 2 to 3. I also like the Skins here because they are playing home vs a division rival, which usually means a cover for a small home dog.

Falcons @ Seahawks

Seahawks -5.5
I don’t often bet on the team that is off of a bye as I believe it hurts a lot of teams more than it helps, and it’s a somewhat of a bettor’s trap. I do believe however that bye weeks help really good teams, teams like the Seahawks. They needed a rest to get healthier and are coming off of a few big games. Seattle stays hot and brings Atlanta back down to earth in a big way.

Broncos @ Chargers

Chargers +3
Thursday night football and the San Diego Chargers; two things I hate betting on. But like my first bet, I love betting small home dogs in division rivalries. Especially when the public is all over the better/away team. I am definitely wary of this bet, as its against the best defense in the league. I will likely bet 1 unit or less here.

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Week 5 NFL Picks

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9-3 start to the season although a tough week last week, going 1-3 to halt my 8-0 streak. I don’t dislike last week’s bets for the most part, but I do think I made a mistake on betting against the best defense in the league in Denver. I think that even when the indicators are there, it’s still better to stay away.

Onward, here are my picks for week 5.

Eagles @ Lions

Lions +3
Eagles a big public play, and coming off of a bye. But when these two teams met last year, Stafford threw for 350 and 5 TDs in a 48-14 route. The Eagles defense hasn’t changed a whole lot since then, so I’m going against the public and with history.

Titans @ Dolphins

Dolphins -3.5
Miami has looked pretty bad, and so have the Titans. This will be Miami’s second home game this season, the first being two weeks ago vs the Browns where they stumbled but showed flashes of offensive explosiveness in their 6 point win. Their defense also had 3 huge plays, 2 picks and a fumble, get called back due to penalties.

Cardinals @ 49ers

49ers +3
San Francisco started off hot last week going up 14-0 against Dallas, but allowed them to creep back while going stagnant offensively in the second half. The Cowboys basically proved that even with injuries, their offensive line is still likely the best in the league. The same can not be said about Arizona, and now Carson Palmer is sitting. It could get ugly in Candlestick.

Honorable Mentions
Jets +7
Cowboys +1

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Week 4 NFL Picks

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8-0 on the season thus far. 4-0 last week and came oh-so-close to a DFS victory in the $100k. Here are my picks for week 4.

Broncos @ Bucs

Bucs +3
This line would seem to make more sense at Broncos -6, not 3. The public is all over Denver 92% early in the week. I believe Winston plays well vs this tough defense, Siemian has a tough one, and Bucs win it at the end.

Colts @ Jags

Jags +2.5
I feel like this line has been Jags +2 every year since the Peyton Manning days in Indy. And somehow the Colts always win by 1. Vegas knows what they’re doing as usual, Jags cover at home, and the public falls flat.

Rams @ Cardinals

Cardinals -9
I like the Cardinals to bounce back after a tough away loss and embarrass the Rams in Arizona. The low total and large spread signifies a strong defensive performance by Arizona in a convincing win. Let’s call it 27-10.

Cowboys @ 49ers

49ers +3
Dallas playing well and 49ers look like the pits. I have a feeling we see the 49ers from week 1 vs the Rams this week though, and their defense hands it to Dallas and Prescott.

Honorable Mentions
Baltimore -3.5
Bears +3

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Week 3 NFL Picks

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4-0 on the season thus far. 2-0 last week with Vikings and Rams. Here are my picks for week 3.

Cardinals @ Bills

Bills +4
The public is over 80% on the high flying Cardinals, but they are flying cross-country to play a tough Bills defense. The Bills will play Arizona close; I see them winning this one outright a lot here as the gambly Ryan brothers could easily put together a scheme that gets to Palmer all game.

Steelers @ Eagles

Eagles +3.5
A short trip for Pitt, but a tough stadium to play in vs a confident Eagles team coming home after a big win in Chicago. This game should stay close until the very end, and Pitt wins by a point.

Chargers @ Colts

Colts -3
It’s rare that I follow the public, but this week the public is on the Colts 65% and so am I. The Colts don’t look great and San Diego looks like world beaters. Bettors have short memories though, and I think both teams snap back to their true value this game and Colts win convincingly.

Jets @ Chiefs

Chiefs -3
Are we forgetting how good Andy Reid and the Chiefs are so quickly? KC shows up huge in arrowhead and brings Fitzpatrick and the Jets back down to earth.

Honorable Mentions
Panthers/Vikings over 43
Packers -7
49ers/Seahawks under 40.5

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Week 2 NFL Picks

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2-0 in week 1 betting the Jets and SF. Here are my picks for week 2 NFL 2016. Good luck!

Packers @ Vikings

Vikings +2.5
If this line is at 3 anywhere I would snap it up. Tough betting the +2.5 but this line should be way higher. Public over 80% on the super favorite GB Packers, but look for Minnesota to give GB hell as always and Rodgers to struggle.

Seahawks @ Rams

Rams +6.5
The Rams looked terrible week 1 but played a very tough away game in SF. Now the Seahawks who also struggled at home vs a bad Miami team will be away vs a very tough defense and a hobbled Russell Wilson. This game stays close.

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NFL Playoff Picks – Round 2 Bets

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Seahawks @ Panthers

Seahawks +3
Here is where we find out if Carolina is the real deal, which it appears to me that they are. Seattle is clicking at the right time, and Russell Wilson is playing like the champion he is. But even with this being the case, if Carolina is the powerhouse that they appear to be, then they should be bigger favorites than by 3 points, plain and simple. The line is way too low, and the public is on Carolina 71% at the moment. Vegas clearly thinks Seattle has the edge here, which is why I think they’re the best play this weekend.

Make sure to line shop this one no matter which way you bet, and try to find that huge 1/2 point difference.

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Week 15 NFL Picks

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Cardinals @ Eagles

Eagles +4

Eagles playing well, even beating the Pats recently. The line a bit low, Zona traveling cross country in a tough stadium, and the public 76% on the favorite. Philadelphia controls this game from the start and wins outright.

 

Browns @ Seahawks

Over 43

Seahawks beginning to roll at the right time, and I don’t see them slowing down today. 35-13 final in this one.

 

Broncos @ Steelers

Broncos +7

This line opened slightly higher than I thought it would, but I still like Denver here as the best defense in the league getting a touchdown vs a slightly inconsistent and injury riddled Steelers team. I think Pitt stalls out much like they did vs the tough Bengals defense a bit earlier in the year.