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Tony Romo 2016 MVP Betsome

2016 NFL MVP Future Bets

Tony Romo 2016 MVP Betsome
Here is how I would invest $100 for this year’s MVP award. There are some nice value spots in quarterbacks on playoff teams. I typically fade the favorite when betting futures and try to find the best player on teams destined for regular season success.

ANDREW LUCK (12-1) $30 to win $360

Luck will be bouncing back from an injury riddled 2015 season in which he played 7 games and never got into a rhythm. In 2014 Luck lit up the league with 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Most of that year Luck was the front-runner for the award, before Aaron Rodgers surpassed him with less mistakes and more wins.

At age 26, he is entering his prime and should win multiple MVP awards, 12-1 seems like a great price to pounce on.

ELI MANNING (25-1) $20 to win $500

The Giants addressed their defensive issues this offseason which should lead to more field time for Eli. Ben McAdoo moves from offensive coordinator to head coach, so you can expect Manning’s passing numbers to be very similar to the 600+ pass attempts of his past two seasons.

Manning has yet to win the award at age 35 but has enjoyed his greatest statistical seasons the past two years. Eli has played all 16 games every year besides his rookie season, an enormous model of consistency. The only downfall of this bet is his proclivity for extremely high interception totals.

TONY ROMO (25-1) $20 to win $500

The Cowboys are all around healthy and have added a 3-down back in the draft with Ezekiel Elliot. They have the top offensive line in the league, boasting 3 all-pros to protect Romo. This division is up for grabs and Romo will have less pressure to force things with Elliot in tow.

The Cowboys thinnest position is by far wide receiver, with Terrence Williams and Cole Beasley behind Dez Bryant on the depth chart. It will be interesting to see if Witten and Elliot can become consistent enough to help alleviate Bryant’s defensive attention. In 2014 the Cowboys narrowly lost to the Packers (on an overturned Dez catch) missing out on an NFC championship appearance. Winning the NFC East and securing a top playoff seed can be enough to win Romo the award.

ADRIAN PETERSON (33-1) $25 to win $825

The Vikings are quietly very good after producing an 11-5 season. They have a top defense and stifle opponents offensive momentum by feeding Peterson a heavy workload. Locked in for 300+ carries, Peterson can easily produce 1500+ rushing yards and 12+ touchdowns.

This is great value at 33-1 for an all-time great that is by no means past his prime and guaranteed a heavy workload.

DEREK CARR (50-1) $5 to win $250

The Raiders are the Cinderella team for the 2016 season. A great mix of savvy veterans and elite young stars. They have three top players in QB Derek Carr, WR Amari Cooper, and LB Khalil Mack. Carr produced a phenomenal sophomore campaign with 32 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. He is a gutsy player who has drawn comparisons to Brett Favre for his style of play.

I believe the AFC is up for grabs with Tom Brady’s 4 game suspension, and 50-1 for a proven quarterback on a dangerous team seems like a nice longshot.

DON’T FALL FOR

J.J. WATT (25-1) The new face of the NFL will have to crush the all-time sack record AND make the Texans relevant to win the award, 25-1 is purely based on his popularity.

ROB GRONKOWSKI (66-1) Brady’s 4 game absence may equate to more targets for Gronk, but the signing of proven free agent TE Martellus Bennett could eat into Gronk’s red zone success.

ANY WIDE RECEIVER (66-1+) No receiver has ever won the award, a nod to the importance of the quarterback position. The only way I see this changing is if a wide-out breaks the all time receptions record, via a turnover prone quarterback.

Take a flier on Antonio Brown (66-1) and Julio Jones(100-1) if you can’t help yourself, both threatened Marvin Harrison’s 143 catch season, with 136 each last year.

baseball and dollars, concept sport betting

Regulation of Daily Fantasy Sports in the Future?

baseball and dollars, concept sport bettingIt almost seems like daily fantasy sports betting became a billion dollar overnight. FanDuel and DraftKings two of the fantasy sports betting industry leaders said in a joint statement to Reuters that they “are speaking with gaming industry representatives to educate them on the fantasy sports industry as our products are fundamentally separate from, and not competitive with casinos and gaming businesses.”

The line between skill and luck is being somewhat blurred by the trend’s rapid growth. AG Burnett, chairman of the Nevada Gaming Control Board said, “When chance begins to govern the outcome more than skill, you have a form of gaming, and that’s when the need for regulation kicks in.” So with that said, Nevada could push for DFS to be shut down in that state until some kind of regulation is put in place.

The demographic of the fantasy sports industry is the most desired of the gambling industry patrons. The majority of daily fantasy sports players are men, and over 90 percent of them are white. Fifty-one percent are between the ages of 25 and 35. I predict as time goes on, the average age will probably become younger which is similar to what happened when the poker boom arrived. Players are getting younger and younger as the game offers bigger payouts.

American Gaming Association On The Case

Dealing with the legality, the American Gaming Association has created a task force to study the issue without any definitive conclusions yet. Some gaming companies are calling daily fantasy sports unlawful.

John McManus, MGM International’s general counsel, commented, “It is not in the interests of consumers that established gaming companies, which are fully licensed and regulated, are the only market participants that cannot engage in the business,” McManus continued, “MGM Resorts International would like to see daily fantasy sports made legal and properly regulated, similar to our position on all forms of gambling.”

Lobbyists for the fantasy sports industry dispute that characterization, however, saying that their games are clearly more about skill than luck.The Fantasy Sports Trade Association President Paul Charchian went on to say “The money motivation was never a key element of fantasy sports. Now a lot of the marketing in daily fantasy sports is really excessively focused on monetary gain.”

Email from PokerStars surveying players about Daily Fantasy Sports.

PokerStars Prepares for Daily Fantasy Sports Launch

Email from PokerStars surveying players about Daily Fantasy Sports.

Email from PokerStars surveying players about Daily Fantasy Sports.

It was recently announced that PokerStars is planning on offering Daily fantasy sports in the USA along with online poker. An email was sent out to US players which asked a few question such as what kind of fantasy sport games were played, for real money or not and how many times did they participate in the activity. Other questions also included if PokerStars were to offer DFS, how likely would that player participate versus what’s available now.

The CEO of Amaya Gaming, which owns PokerStars, David Baazov, announced his company would be launching a Daily fantasy sports offering back in late March.

“We have also taken the strategic decision to enter the daily fantasy sports category and are pursuing parallel tracks of internal development and strategic acquisition,” he said. “We expect to provide more details on this strategy in the second half of 2015 but see a clear crossover from poker and daily fantasy sports.

“The goal is to be up before the NFL season starts. We clearly see a strong demand for it. We clearly see a strong demand for it … the U.S. players that were formerly PokerStars players would like to see us launch fantasy sports.”

It is obvious that PokerStars is attempting to create a one-stop-shop of all online gaming needs once they enter into the U.S. market which would include casino games, online poker, and daily fantasy sports.

Draft-Kings-Red_t780

ESPN and DraftKings team up for Daily Fantasy

Draft-Kings-Red_t780Big news for all you sports fans who are into daily fantasy sports. The world leader in sport news ESPN has teamed up with DraftKings to offer daily-fantasy sports across the sports giant’s platforms.

Daily fantasy sports is a rapidly growing industry. The way it work is players compete against each other by picking virtual teams, based on real players and have a salary cap to work with. Each player has their own value, so it takes some homework to put together the right team and stay under or at the cap. In 2014, 42 million fans in the U.S. and Canada spent an estimated $15 billion on fantasy sports, according to the Fantasy Sports Trade Assn. DraftKings is the exclusive daily sports-fantasy partner of Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, NASCAR and Ultimate Fighting Championship.

ESPN’s deal with DraftKings will include branding and promotions across multiple platforms of both companies, including integration into ESPN’s digital properties and TV programming.

Disney Off The Table

Disney was reportedly looking to invest $250 million in DraftKings, but that was never confirmed and it’s apparently now off the table. Boston-based DraftKings has raised about $75 million in funding, including a $41 million round last in funding led by The Raine Group with participation from existing investors Redpoint Ventures, GGV Capital and Atlas Venture.

“ESPN and DraftKings share a history of innovating and advancing fantasy sports to serve this passionate fan base,” John Skipper, ESPN president and co-chairman of Disney Media Networks, said in announcing the deal. “DraftKings is a dynamic company — deeply connected to its fans — and we’re excited to have them on board as our official daily fantasy sports offering.”

According to ESPN, more than 12 million fans play fantasy games across its four top games alone. The company says ESPN Fantasy Football is the top fantasy-football game in the industry with more than 25 million transactions and 47 million alerts per week.

DraftKings was founded in 2012 by CEO Jason Robins, chief revenue officer Matt Kalish and chief operating officer Paul Liberman.

NHL - Sports Betting

NHL Commissioner Speaks Out On Legalizing Sports Betting

NHL - Sports BettingNHL commissioner Gary Bettman doesn’t worry over the significance an enhanced sports betting market the United States may have on pro athletes.

Discussing in an interview on Sportsnet’s Brady & Walker show, Bettman declared if sports wagering were to become much more prevalent in the US, this will not harm the integrity of players.

Several high-profile people from both the sports and gaming market sectors have requested the market to be expanded to allow both industries to reap the benefits of profitability that would be created from wagering activities.

NBA On Board As Well. Who’s Next?

In a recent article here on BetSome, it was made known that NBA commissioner Adam Silver is also for expanding sports betting in the U.S. So now that the NHL head man jumps on board, will we hear from the NFL and MLB commissioners?

Nevada is presently the only state in which people can legally gamble on sporting events.

Bettman, who has been much more conservative to date on this subject, has now weighed in on the debate by saying that if the U.S. government were to permit an expanded sports betting market, then this would certainly not badly impact players’ integrity.

betsome stadium

Fading The Public

betsome stadiumPerhaps one of the purest concepts in sports betting is betting against the public. The reasoning behind this is simple:

If the public won more times than they lost, Vegas and the casinos would be broke.

But they’re not broke. In fact, they make a lot of money. And it likely isn’t from just scraping up vigs.

The public represents the majority of the bettors, and the majority of the bettors usually bet their favorite or the more popular teams. They generally don’t factor in many of the subtleties that can be huge in professional matches.

This is why you will sometimes see a game where the best team in the league is playing a mediocre team, and the line is lower than it seems it should be. The public will usually bet the better team impulsively, even sometimes knowing that it is a weird line. The fact however is that the line is most likely very accurate, and low for a reason.

The public does win however, just enough to keep them coming back for more. Vegas is a pool of sharks, and even sharks know that the fish have to eat sometimes too.

Tips On How & When To Fade The Public

The 65% rule:
In general you want to fade the public when they are 65% or more on one side. So bet the 35% team.

Fade the away teams:
In sports such as the NFL, fade the public by betting home teams that are playing a more talented or popular away team. In certain sports home field plays a much larger role than in others, and the NFL is certainly one of them.

Taking advantage of public line moves:
When the public jumps all over a line, it can often move the line to your advantage. When you see a big public favorite, wait for the line to move and then bet against them.

A prime example of this happens frequently in the NFL: A top team is favored by less than 7 points and playing away, and the public bets heavy on the better team (away team) moving the line up from 6 points to 7 or even higher. This is a prime spot to fade the public and now take your team with an even better point spread at 7.

Example:
The Patriots play away at the Jets.
The line opens at the Patriots -6.
The public thinking that the patriots will likely win by a touchdown at least hop on the Patriots bandwagon.
This moves the line to the Jets +7.5.
You now bet the Jets, because it was the right play to begin with, and you now have a huge 1.5 point extra edge for your bet.

Long run strategy:
Remember that this is a long run strategy, just like everything in betting. Your wins and losses will be streaky.

perfectlinebetsome

Guide To Betting Exactas

perfectlinebetsomeEver notice how good the oddsmakers are at making lines? Ever think they might be so good that you’d like to bet that they get it exactly right?

Betting an exacta means you are betting that the favorite will win by the exact amount that the line is set by. You are simply betting that the line is exactly right.

An example of this is when a team is favored by 7 points. You are betting that the favorite will win by exactly 7 points, and getting odds on your money if they do.

While exactas can be tough to hit, you can get huge odds on your money for a relatively small bet.

In this article we’ll explain general spots when exactas are smart bets, how to manipulate the odds you’ll get on your money, and how to be ready to bet exactas when those perfect lines occur.

General Spots To Bet Exactas

The best example of when and why to bet an exacta is when an NFL game has a 3 point line. This is because approximately 15% (1 in 6) of NFL games end in a 3 point difference.

7 point lines are also good lines to bet exactas in the NFL, as approximately 10% of games end in a 7 point difference.

10 point lines are the 3rd most common point differential followed closely by 4 and 6. All of these point spreads are good lines to gamble on an exacta, primarily when you can get 20-1 odds on them.

College football games with 3 or 7 point lines are also good spots for exactas.

These are all generally great spots to look to bet exactas. In other sports such as basketball, you may want to bet exactas when the line is 8 points or lower, and you can get at least 15-1 on your money.

How To Bet Exactas & Get The Best Odds On Your Money

To get the best odds possible, you should have access to multiple sportsbooks, as well as be paying attention throughout the day or week as the lines move. Here at Betsome.com we keep you updated on the best possible exactas every day.

Exactas With 20-1 Odds

This occurs when the oddsmakers set a line, and you are able to find it on different sportsbooks for 1/2 point lower AND a 1/2 point higher. You then bet both sides. Your risk is 1 vig, and your reward is winning both bets when the line is perfect.

Most of the time you will need 2 different sports books to get 20-1 on an exacta, but every now and then you can execute it with only one sportsbook, if the line moves around enough.

Example of a 20-1 exacta:

  • The Packers are favored by 3 points at home against the Broncos.
    On one sports book they are -3.5, but on another they are -2.5.

    You bet $100 on the underdog (Broncos) +3.5 on the first book. You then bet $100 on the favorite (Packers) -2.5 on the other book.

    If the Packers win by exactly 3, you win both bets for a total of $200.

    If any other score results, you lose only $10. This is because you win $100 on your bet that wins, and lose $110 on that loses.

    This is how you get 20-1 on an exacta.

  • When you see opportunites to get 20-1 on your money on a perfect line, take them. Especially if it is a good spot to bet exactas in the first place, such as a 3 or 7 point line in football.

    Exactas With 15-1 Odds:

    The basic difference between the 15-1 exacta and the 20-1 exacta is that you are buying a 1/2 point on one of your bets in order to force the exacta. You are simply paying double the vig if the side you force loses. 15-1 is still great odds on your money on the right lines, so it is advised to take a 15-1 exacta on reasonable spreads.

    Example of a 15-1 exacta:

  • The Packers are favored by 3 points at home against the Broncos.
    On one sports book they are -3.5, yet on another they are only -3.

    So you bet $100 on the underdog (Broncos) +3.5. You then buy a half a point and bet the Packers -2.5.

    You now lose either $10 if one side loses, or $20 if the side you buy the half a point on loses.

    Yet you win both bets for a total of $200 if the Packers win by exactly 3.

    You can almost always find a way to get at least 15-1 on your money if you have more than one sportsbook available. Many times you can get 15-1 on an exacta with just one sportsbook as well if you are paying attention and the line moves a little bit.

  • Exactas With 10-1 Odds

    This is when you bet exactas with just 1 sportsbook, and have to buy a 1/2 point both ways. This is what we call “forcing” an exacta. It does not mean it’s a bad play, it simply means that you think it’s a good enough play to force it and only get 10-1 odds.

    Example of betting a 10-1 exacta:

  • The Packers are favored over the Broncos by 3 points, and the line isn’t moving, so you buy a 1/2 point both ways.

    You make the Packers -2.5, and the Broncos +3.5, and bet $100 on each.
    If the game ends with the Packers winning by exactly 3, you win both bets for a total of $200.

    If the game ends in any other score, you lose $20. This is because you win one bet for $100, but lose the other for $120 (the extra vig for buying the half of a point).

  • You can do a 10-1 exacta with only one sportsbook available.

    How To Be Ready For Exactas

    To get maximum value and odds on your exactas, it is smart to be prepared. Here are a few ways you can do this.

    Have multiple sports books

    Being ready to bet on multiple different sportsbooks is essential to getting maximum odds on your exactas. While it is possible to get 20-1 on an exacta with only one sportsbook, it is far more difficult and much less frequent.

    Pay attention to lines as they move

    In order to get 20-1 on your money, you will have to watch the lines across a few different sites so you will not have to force it one way or another by buying a half of a point and doubling your vig. When the line moves a half a point on one site, snap it up and bet.

    Here at Betsome.com we have multiple sports books and their updated lines always ready for you, and we’re constantly looking for good exactas and reporting them to our audience so check back often for the best exactas!

    Hit all of the major lines

    As we discussed earlier, certain games end in certain spreads with remarkable accuracy. In football, these lines are simply 3, 7, 10, 4, and 6.

    Other sports such as basketball is a bit more wide open, but anything less than 8 is not a bad play to bet an exacta if you can get the appropriate odds.

    If NFL games end in 3 points 1/6 times, why not take 20-1 on that every time?